The Atmospheric Response to Meridional Shifts of the Gulf Stream SST Front and Its Dependence on Model Resolution

The Gulf Stream (GS) plays a key role in shaping the North Atlantic climate. Moreover, the associated sea surface temperature (SST) front undergoes interannual-to-decadal variability that is thought to force significant atmospheric circulation anomalies. However, general circulation models do not accurately reproduce the atmospheric response to SST front variability as estimated from observations. In this work we analyze the atmospheric response to the GS SST front (GSF) shifts in a multimodel ensemble of atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SSTs (1950-2014). The atmospheric response is found to be resolution dependent. Only the high-resolution simulations produce a wintertime response similar to observed anomalies. More specifically, (i) analysis of the atmospheric thermodynamic balance close to the GSF showed that the anomalous diabatic heating associated to the GSF displacement is mainly balanced by vertical motion and by meridional transient eddy heat transport (not the case for low-resolution models), while (ii) the large-scale response includes a meridional shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet and storm track homodirectional to the GSF displacement. This atmospheric response is accompanied by changes in low-level baroclinicity close to and north of the GSF, resulting from the oceanic forcing and the zonal atmospheric circulation anomalies respectively. The low-level baroclinicity anomalies lead to changes in baroclinic eddy activity and, ultimately, in the jet via eddy-mean flow interaction. Considering the two-way nature of air-sea interactions, using historical atmosphere-only simulations is a powerful way to isolate the impact of realistic oceanic variability on the atmosphere. Our results suggest that interannual-to-decadal predictability may be higher than what low-resolution models currently indicate

Hidden potential in predicting wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Dynamical seasonal prediction systems can skilfully predict the winter NAO. However, prediction of the NAO-dependent air temperature anomalies remains elusive, partially due to the low variability of predicted NAO. Here, we demonstrate a hidden potential of a multi-model ensemble of operational seasonal prediction systems for predicting wintertime temperature by increasing the variability of predicted NAO. We identify and subsample those ensemble members which are close to NAO index statistically estimated from initial autumn conditions. In our novel multi-model approach, the correlation prediction skill for wintertime Central Europe temperature is improved from 0.25 to 0.66, accompanied by an increased winter NAO prediction skill of 0.9. Thereby, temperature anomalies can be skilfully predicted for the upcoming winter over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere through increased variability and skill of predicted NAO

Hidden Potential in Predicting Wintertime Temperature Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) drives wintertime temperature anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Dynamical seasonal prediction systems can skilfully predict the winter NAO. However, prediction of the NAO-dependent air temperature anomalies remains elusive, partially due to the low variability of predicted NAO. Here, we demonstrate a hidden potential of a multi-model ensemble of operational seasonal prediction systems for predicting wintertime temperature by increasing the variability of predicted NAO. We identify and subsample those ensemble members which are close to NAO index statistically estimated from initial autumn conditions. In our novel multi-model approach, the correlation prediction skill for wintertime Central Europe temperature is improved from 0.25 to 0.66, accompanied by an increased winter NAO prediction skill of 0.9. Thereby, temperature anomalies can be skilfully predicted for the upcoming winter over a large part of the Northern Hemisphere through increased variability and skill of predicted NAO

Mitigating Climate Biases in the Midlatitude North Atlantic by Increasing Model Resolution: SST Gradients and Their Relation to Blocking and the Jet

Starting to resolve the oceanic mesoscale in climate models is a step change in model fidelity. This study examines how certain obstinate biases in the midlatitude North Atlantic respond to increasing resolution (from 18 to 0.258 in the ocean) and how such biases in sea surface temperature (SST) affect the atmosphere. Using a multimodel ensemble of historical climate simulations run at different horizontal resolutions, it is shown that a severe cold SST bias in the central North Atlantic, common to many ocean models, is significantly reduced with increasing resolution. The associated bias in the time-mean meridional SST gradient is shown to relate to a positive bias in low-level baroclinicity, while the cold SST bias causes biases also in static stability and diabatic heating in the interior of the atmosphere. The changes in baroclinicity and diabatic heating brought by increasing resolution lead to improvements in European blocking and eddy-driven jet variability. Across the multimodel ensemble a clear relationship is found between the climatological meridional SST gradients in the broader Gulf Stream Extension area and two aspects of the atmospheric circulation: the frequency of high-latitude blocking and the southern-jet regime. This relationship is thought to reflect the two-way interaction (with a positive feedback) between the respective oceanic and atmospheric anomalies. These North Atlantic SST anomalies are shown to be important in forcing significant responses in the midlatitude atmospheric circulation, including jet variability and the storm track. Further increases in oceanic and atmospheric resolution are expected to lead to additional improvements in the representation of Euro-Atlantic climate

Combinatorial Markov chains on linear extensions

We consider generalizations of Schuetzenberger's promotion operator on the set L of linear extensions of a finite poset of size n. This gives rise to a strongly connected graph on L. By assigning weights to the edges of the graph in two different ways, we study two Markov chains, both of which are irreducible. The stationary state of one gives rise to the uniform distribution, whereas the weights of the stationary state of the other has a nice product formula. This generalizes results by Hendricks on the Tsetlin library, which corresponds to the case when the poset is the anti-chain and hence L=S_n is the full symmetric group. We also provide explicit eigenvalues of the transition matrix in general when the poset is a rooted forest. This is shown by proving that the associated monoid is R-trivial and then using Steinberg's extension of Brown's theory for Markov chains on left regular bands to R-trivial monoids.Comment: 35 pages, more examples of promotion, rephrased the main theorems in terms of discrete time Markov chain

Northern Hemisphere blocking simulation in current climate models: evaluating progress from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to 6 and sensitivity to resolution

Global climate models (GCMs) are known to suffer from biases in the simulation of atmospheric blocking, and this study provides an assessment of how blocking is represented by the latest generation of GCMs. It is evaluated (i) how historical CMIP6 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) simulations perform compared to CMIP5 simulations and (ii) how horizontal model resolution affects the simulation of blocking in the CMIP6-HighResMIP (PRIMAVERA – PRocess-based climate sIMulation: AdVances in high-resolution modelling and European climate Risk Assessment) model ensemble, which is designed to address this type of question. Two blocking indices are used to evaluate the simulated mean blocking frequency and blocking persistence for the Euro-Atlantic and Pacific regions in winter and summer against the corresponding estimates from atmospheric reanalysis data. There is robust evidence that CMIP6 models simulate blocking frequency and persistence better than CMIP5 models in the Atlantic and Pacific and during winter and summer. This improvement is sizeable so that, for example, winter blocking frequency in the median CMIP5 model in a large Euro-Atlantic domain is underestimated by 33 % using the absolute geopotential height (AGP) blocking index, whereas the same number is 18 % for the median CMIP6 model. As for the sensitivity of simulated blocking to resolution, it is found that the resolution increase, from typically 100 to 20 km grid spacing, in most of the PRIMAVERA models, which are not re-tuned at the higher resolutions, benefits the mean blocking frequency in the Atlantic in winter and summer and in the Pacific in summer. Simulated blocking persistence, however, is not seen to improve with resolution. Our results are consistent with previous studies suggesting that resolution is one of a number of interacting factors necessary for an adequate simulation of blocking in GCMs. The improvements reported in this study hold promise for further reductions in blocking biases as model development continues

Updated Field Synopsis and Systematic Meta-Analyses of Genetic Association Studies in Cutaneous Melanoma: The MelGene Database

We updated a field synopsis of genetic associations of cutaneous melanoma (CM) by systematically retrieving and combining data from all studies in the field published as of August 31, 2013. Data were available from 197 studies, which included 83,343 CM cases and 187,809 controls and reported on 1,126 polymorphisms in 289 different genes. Random-effects meta-analyses of 81 eligible polymorphisms evaluated in >4 data sets confirmed 20 single-nucleotide polymorphisms across 10 loci (TYR, AFG3L1P, CDK10, MYH7B, SLC45A2, MTAP, ATM, CLPTM1L, FTO, and CASP8) that have previously been published with genome-wide significant evidence for association (P<5 × 10−8) with CM risk, with certain variants possibly functioning as proxies of already tagged genes. Four other loci (MITF, CCND1, MX2, and PLA2G6) were also significantly associated with 5 × 10−8<P<1 × 10−3. In supplementary meta-analyses derived from genome-wide association studies, one additional locus located 11 kb upstream of ARNT (chromosome 1q21) showed genome-wide statistical significance with CM. Our approach serves as a useful model in analyzing and integrating the reported germline alterations involved in CM

Desmin is essential for the structure and function of the sinoatrial node:implications for increased arrhythmogenesis

Our objective was to investigate the effect of desmin depletion on the structure and function of the sinoatrial pacemaker complex (SANcl) and its implication in arrhythmogenesis. Analysis of mice and humans (SANcl) indicated that the sinoatrial node exhibits high amounts of desmin, desmoplakin, N-cadherin, and β-catenin in structures we call “lateral intercalated disks” connecting myocytes side by side. Examination of the SANcl from an arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy model, desmin-deficient (Des-/-) mouse, by immunofluorescence, ultrastructural, and Western blot analysis showed that the number of these lateral intercalated disks was diminished. Also, electrophysiological recordings of the isolated compact sinoatrial node revealed increased pacemaker systolic potential and higher diastolic depolarization rate compared with wild-type mice. Prolonged interatrial conduction expressed as a longer P wave duration was also observed in Des-/mice. Upregulation of mRNA levels of both T-type Ca2+ current channels, Cav3.1 and Cav3.2, in the Des-/- myocardium (1.8- and 2.3-fold, respectively) and a 1.9-fold reduction of funny hyperpolarization-activated cyclic nucleotide-gated K+ channel 1 could underlie these functional differences. To investigate arrhythmogenicity, electrocardiographic analysis of Des-deficient mice revealed a major increase in supraventricular and ventricular ectopic beats compared with wild-type mice. Heart rate variability analysis indicated a sympathetic predominance in Des-/- mice, which may further contribute to arrhythmogenicity. In conclusion, our results indicate that desmin elimination leads to structural and functional abnormalities of the SANcl. These alterations may be enhanced by the sympathetic component of the cardiac autonomic nervous system, which is predominant in the desmin-deficient heart, thus leading to increased arrhythmogenesis

Hopf algebras and Markov chains: Two examples and a theory

The operation of squaring (coproduct followed by product) in a combinatorial Hopf algebra is shown to induce a Markov chain in natural bases. Chains constructed in this way include widely studied methods of card shuffling, a natural "rock-breaking" process, and Markov chains on simplicial complexes. Many of these chains can be explictly diagonalized using the primitive elements of the algebra and the combinatorics of the free Lie algebra. For card shuffling, this gives an explicit description of the eigenvectors. For rock-breaking, an explicit description of the quasi-stationary distribution and sharp rates to absorption follow.Comment: 51 pages, 17 figures. (Typographical errors corrected. Further fixes will only appear on the version on Amy Pang's website, the arXiv version will not be updated.

Observing superluminous supernovae and long gamma ray bursts as potential birthplaces of repeating fast radio bursts

Superluminous supernovae (SLSNe) and long gamma ray bursts (LGRBs) have been proposed as progenitors of repeating Fast Radio Bursts (FRBs). In this scenario, bursts originate from the interaction between a young magnetar and its surrounding supernova remnant (SNR). Such a model could explain the repeating, apparently non-Poissonian nature of FRB121102, which appears to display quiescent and active phases. This bursting behaviour is better explained with a Weibull distribution, which includes parametrisation for clustering. We observed 10 SLSNe/LGRBs for 63 hours, looking for repeating FRBs with the Effelsberg-100 m radio telescope, but have not detected any bursts. We scale the burst rate of FRB121102 to an FRB121102-like source inhabiting each of our observed targets, and compare this rate to our upper burst rate limit on a source by source basis. By adopting a fiducial beaming fraction of 0.6, we obtain 99.99\% and 83.4\% probabilities that at least one, and at least half of our observed sources are beamed towards us respectively. One of our SLSN targets, PTF10hgi, is coincident with a persistent radio source, making it a possible analogue to FRB121102. We performed further observations on this source using the Effelsberg-100~m and Parkes-64~m radio telescopes. Assuming that PTF10hgi contains an FRB121102-like source, the probabilities of not detecting any bursts from a Weibull distribution during our observations are 14\% and 16\% for Effelsberg and Parkes respectively. We conclude by showing that a survey of many short observations increases burst detection probability for a source with Weibull distributed bursting activity.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figure