Science directions in a post-COP21-world of transient climate change: enabling regional to local predictions in support of reliable climate information

During recent decades, through theoretical considerations and analyses of observations andmodel simulations, the scientific community has fundamentally advanced our understanding of thecoupled climate system, thereby establishing that humans affect the Earth’s climate. Resulting from thisremarkable accomplishment, the COP21 agreement marks a historic turning point for climate research bycalling for actionable regional climate change information on time scales from seasonal to centuries for thebenefit of humanity, as well as living and nonliving elements of the Earth environment. Out of the underlyingUnited National Framework Convention on climate Change process, improving seamless regional climateforecast capabilities emerges as a key challenge for the international research community. Addressing itrequires a multiscale approach to climate predictions. Here we offer a vision that emphasizes enhancedscientific understanding of regional to local climate processes as the foundation for progress. The scientificchallenge is extreme due to the rich complexity of interactions and feedbacks between regional andglobal processes, each of which affects the global climate trajectory. To gain the necessary scientific insightand to turn it into actionable climate information require technical development, international coordination,and a close interaction between the science and stakeholder communities

Modulation of Mid‐Holocene African Rainfall by Dust Aerosol Direct and Indirect Effects

Climate model simulations of the mid‐Holocene (MH) consistently underestimate northern African rainfall for reasons not fully understood. While most models incorporate orbital forcing and vegetation feedbacks, they neglect dust reductions associated with greater vegetation cover. Here we simulate the MH climate response to reduced Saharan dust using CESM CAM5‐chem, which resolves direct and indirect dust aerosol effects. Direct aerosol effects increase Saharan and Sahel convective rainfall by ~16% and 8%. In contrast, indirect aerosol effects decrease stratiform rainfall, damping the dust‐induced total rainfall increase by ~13% in the Sahara and ~59% in the Sahel. Sensitivity experiments indicate the dust‐induced precipitation anomaly in the Sahara and Sahel (0.27 and 0.18 mm/day) is smaller than the anomaly from MH vegetation cover (1.19 and 1.08 mm/day). Although sensitive to dust radiative properties, sea surface temperatures, and indirect aerosol effect parameterization, our results suggest that dust reductions had competing effects on MH African rainfall.Plain Language SummarySix thousand years ago, changes in Earth’s orbit led to greater summer season solar radiation over northern Africa. The increase in energy resulted in higher rainfall amounts, widespread vegetation, and reduced dust aerosols over regions that today are desert. In this study we use a climate model, CESM CAM5‐chem, that accounts for the ways dust aerosols interact with sunlight and cloud droplets to examine how the reduction in Saharan dust during this past humid time affected rainfall. When dust aerosols are reduced in the model, more sunlight reaches the surface, the Sahara warms, and convective rainfall from the West African Monsoon increases. However, through dust‐cloud droplet interactions, the same reduction in dust decreases nonconvective rainfall, which is less prevalent during the monsoon season but still important, and thus dampens the total rainfall increase. Overall, dust reduction leads to a rainfall response that is dependent on rainfall type. Lastly, we compare the rainfall response of reducing dust to that of increasing vegetation cover and find that while important, the response from dust is considerably weaker.Key PointsChanges in direct dust aerosol effects from reduced mid‐Holocene Saharan dust loading increase convective rainfall in northern AfricaChanges in indirect dust aerosol effects weaken total precipitation increases by limiting stratiform rainfall, particularly in the SahelThe African rainfall response to total dust aerosol effects is lower than a previous study and substantially less than vegetation forcingPeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/149324/1/grl58759-sup-0001-2018GL081225-SI.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/149324/2/grl58759_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/149324/3/grl58759.pd

The use of paleoclimatic simulations to refine the environmental and chronological context of archaeological/paleontological sites

To reconstruct the paleoenvironmental and chronological context of archaeological/paleontological sites is a key step to understand the evolutionary history of past organisms. Commonly used method to infer paleoenvironments rely on varied proxies such as faunal assemblages and isotopes. However, those proxies often show some inconsistencies. Regarding estimated ages of stratigraphic layers, they can vary depending on the dating method used. In this paper, we tested the potential of paleoclimate simulations to address this issue and contribute to the description of the environmental and chronological context of archaeological/paleontological sites. We produced a set of paleoclimate simulations corresponding to the stratigraphy of a Late-Pleistocene Holocene site, El Harhoura 2 (Morocco), and compared the climatic sequence described by these simulations to environmental inferences made from isotopes and faunal assemblages. Our results showed that in the studied site combined US-ESR ages were much more congruent with paleoenvironmental inferences than OSL ages. In addition, climatic variations were found to be more consistent with isotopic studies than faunal assemblages, allowing us to discuss unresolved discrepancies to date. This study illustrates the strong potential of our approach to refine the paleoenvironmental and chronological context of archaeological and paleontological sites.1 Introduction 2 Material and methods 2.1 El Harhoura 2 cave 2.2 Paleoclimate simulations 2.2.1 Pre-existing ensemble of simulations 2.2.2 Model 2.2.3 Sea-surface boundary conditions 2.3 Climate variations through EH2 sequence 3 Results 3.1 Paleoclimate simulations 3.2 Climate variations through EH2 sequence 4 Discussion 5 Conclusio

The use of paleoclimate simulations to refine the environmental and chronological context of archaeological/paleontological sites

This study illustrates the strong potential of combining paleoenvironmental reconstructions and paleoclimate modeling to refine the paleoenvironmental and chronological context of archaeologicaland paleontological sites. We focus on the El Harhoura 2 cave (EH2), an archeological site located on the North-Atlantic coast of Morocco that covers a period from the Late Pleistocene to the mid-Holocene. On several stratigraphic layers, inconsistencies are observed between species- and isotope-based inferences used to reconstruct paleoenvironmental conditions. The stratigraphy of EH2 also shows chronological inconsistencies on older layers between age estimated by Optical Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) and Combination of Uranium Series and Electron Spin Resonance methods (combined US-ESR). We performed paleoclimate simulations to infer the global paleoclimate variations over the EH2 sequence in the area, and we conducted a consistency approach between paleoclimatereconstruction estimated from simulations and available from EH2 paleoenvironmental inferences. Our main conclusion show that the climate sequence based on combined US-ESR ages is more consistent with paleoenvironmental inferences than the climate sequence based on OSL ages. We also evidence that isotope-based inferences are more congruent with the paleoclimate sequence than species-based inferences. These results highlight the difference in scale between the information provided by each ofthese paleoenvironmental proxies. Our approach is transferable to other sites due to the increase number of available paleoclimate simulations.1 Introduction 2 Material and methods 2.1 El Harhoura 2 cave 2.1.1 Presentation of the site 2.1.2 Chronostratigraphy and dating hypotheses 2.1.3 Paleoenvironmental variables 2.2 Paleoclimate reconstruction 2.2.1 Climate model 2.2.2 Paleoclimate simulations 2.2.3 Sea-surface boundary conditions 2.2.4 A subset of key paleoclimate variables 2.3 Consistency analyses 3 Results 3.1. Simulated climate changes 3.2 Consistency between paleoclimate simulations and paleoenvironmental inferences 3.2.1 Association of paleoclimate simulations and stratigraphic layers 3.2.2 Consistency analyses 4 Discussion 4.1 Paleoclimate variation and underlying forcings 4.2 Paleoclimate simulations and chronostratigraphy 4.3 Paleoclimate simulations and paleoenvironmental inferences 5 Conclusion

Holocene evolution of summer winds and marine productivity in the tropical Indian Ocean in response to insolation forcing: data-model comparison

The relative abundance of <i>Globigerinoides bulloides</i> was used to infer Holocene paleo-productivity changes on the Oman margin and at the southern tip of India. Today, the primary productivity at both sites reaches its maximum during the summer season, when monsoon winds result in local Eckman pumping, which brings more nutrients to the surface. On a millennium time-scale, however, the % <i>G. bulloides</i> records indicate an opposite evolution of paleo-productivity at these sites through the Holocene. The Oman Margin productivity was maximal at ~9 ka (boreal summer insolation maximum) and has decreased since then, suggesting a direct response to insolation forcing. On the contrary, the productivity at the southern tip of India was minimum at ~9 ka, and strengthened towards the present. <br><br> Paleo-reconstructions of wind patterns, marine productivity and foraminifera assemblages were obtained using the IPSL-CM4 climate model coupled to the PISCES marine biogeochemical model and the FORAMCLIM ecophysiological model. These reconstructions are fully coherent with the marine core data. They confirm that the evolution of particulate export production and foraminifera assemblages at our two sites were directly linked with the strength of the upwelling. Model simulations at 9 ka and 6 ka BP show that the relative evolution between the two sites since the early Holocene can be explained by the weakening but also the southward shift of monsoon winds over the Arabian Sea during boreal summer

Evaluation of coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations of northern hemisphere extratropical climates in the mid-Holocene

We have used the BIOME4 biogeography–biochemistry model and comparison with palaeovegetation data to evaluate the response of six ocean–atmosphere general circulation models to mid-Holocene changes in orbital forcing in the mid- to high-latitudes of the northern hemisphere. All the models produce: (a) a northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest, in response to simulated summer warming in high-latitudes. The northward shift is markedly asymmetric, with larger shifts in Eurasia than in North America; (b) an expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America and Eurasia, in response to increased temperatures during the growing season; (c) a northward expansion of temperate forests in eastern North America, in response to simulated winter warming. The northward shift of the northern limit of boreal forest and the northward expansion of temperate forests in North America are supported by palaeovegetation data. The expansion of xerophytic vegetation in mid-continental North America is consistent with palaeodata, although the extent may be over-estimated. The simulated expansion of xerophytic vegetation in Eurasia is not supported by the data. Analysis of an asynchronous coupling of one model to an equilibrium-vegetation model suggests vegetation feedback exacerbates this mid-continental drying and produces conditions more unlike the observations. Not all features of the simulations are robust: some models produce winter warming over Europe while others produce winter cooling. As a result, some models show a northward shift of temperate forests (consistent with, though less marked than, the expansion shown by data) and others produce a reduction in temperate forests. Elucidation of the cause of such differences is a focus of the current phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project

Quantifying molecular oxygen isotope variations during a Heinrich stadial

International audienceδ 18 O of atmospheric oxygen (δ 18 O atm) undergoes millennial-scale variations during the last glacial period, and systematically increases during Heinrich stadials (HSs). Changes in δ 18 O atm combine variations in biospheric and water cycle processes. The identification of the main driver of the millennial variability in δ 18 O atm is thus not straightforward. Here, we quantify the response of δ 18 O atm to such millennial events using a freshwater hosing simulation performed under glacial boundary conditions. Our global approach takes into account the latest estimates of isotope frac-tionation factor for respiratory and photosynthetic processes and make use of atmospheric water isotope and vegetation changes. Our modeling approach allows to reproduce the main observed features of a HS in terms of climatic conditions , vegetation distribution and δ 18 O of precipitation. We use it to decipher the relative importance of the different processes behind the observed changes in δ 18 O atm. The results highlight the dominant role of hydrology on δ 18 O atm and confirm that δ 18 O atm can be seen as a global integrator of hydrological changes over vegetated areas

Ice-sheet configuration in the CMIP5/PMIP3 Last Glacial Maximum experiments

We describe the creation of a data set describing changes related to the presence of ice sheets, including ice-sheet extent and height, ice-shelf extent, and the distribution and elevation of ice-free land at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which were used in LGM experiments conducted as part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and the third phase of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The CMIP5/PMIP3 data sets were created from reconstructions made by three different groups, which were all obtained using a model-inversion approach but differ in the assumptions used in the modelling and in the type of data used as constraints. The ice-sheet extent in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) does not vary substantially between the three individual data sources. The difference in the topography of the NH ice sheets is also moderate, and smaller than the differences between these reconstructions (and the resultant composite reconstruction) and ice-sheet reconstructions used in previous generations of PMIP. Only two of the individual reconstructions provide information for Antarctica. The discrepancy between these two reconstructions is larger than the difference for the NH ice sheets, although still less than the difference between the composite reconstruction and previous PMIP ice-sheet reconstructions. Although largely confined to the ice-covered regions, differences between the climate response to the individual LGM reconstructions extend over the North Atlantic Ocean and Northern Hemisphere continents, partly through atmospheric stationary waves. Differences between the climate response to the CMIP5/PMIP3 composite and any individual ice-sheet reconstruction are smaller than those between the CMIP5/PMIP3 composite and the ice sheet used in the last phase of PMIP (PMIP2)

Orbitally forced and internal changes in West African rainfall interannual-to-decadal variability for the last 6000 years

Recent variability in West African monsoon rainfall (WAMR) has been shown to be influenced by multiple ocean-atmosphere modes, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. How these modes will change in response to long term forcing is less well understood. Here we use four transient simulations driven by changes in orbital forcing and greenhouse gas concentrations over the past 6000 years to examine the relationship between West African monsoon rainfall multiscale variability and changes in the modes associated with this variability. All four models show a near linear decline in monsoon rainfall over the past 6000 years in response to the gradual weakening of the interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperatures. The only indices that show a long-term trend are those associated with the strengthening of the El Niño Southern Oscillation from the mid-Holocene onwards. At the interannual-to-decadal timescale, WAMR variability is largely influenced by Pacific-Atlantic - Mediterranean Sea teleconnections in all simulations; the exact configurations are model sensitive. The WAMR interannual-to-decadal variability depicts marked multi-centennial oscillations, with La Niña/negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation and a weakening and/or poleward shift of subtropical high-pressure systems over the Atlantic favoring wet WAMR anomalies. The WAMR interannual-to-decadal variability also depicts an overall decreasing trend throughout the Holocene that is consistent among the simulations. This decreasing trend relates to changes in the North Atlantic and Gulf of Guinea Sea Surface Temperature variability. Supplementary information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00382-023-07023-y