History, Crucial Choices and Equilibrium

This paper discusses alternative conceptions of time and scrutinises the ideas of crucial choice, determinism and equilibrium. The relevant notion is that of historical time, where time is seen as irreversible, flowing from the irrevocable past to an unknown future, like an arrow. This notion is consistent with the concept of fundamental uncertainty and is at odds with deterministic explanations of reality. The economy is an open, evolving process in which free will, Shacklean genuine choices, Schumpeterian innovative behaviours, and unpredictable, unintended consequences of human actions have an important role to play. Human imagination and crucial decisions preclude the full operation of rigid laws of necessity. In the light of these ideas, the paper also approaches a few suggestions of reconceptualisations of the notion of equilibrium which purport to render the concept more palatableHistorical Time, Crucial Choices, Shackle, Determinism, Equilibrium.

Global versus local shocks in micro price dynamics

A number of recent papers point to the importance of distinguishing between the price reaction to micro and macro shocks in order to reconcile the volatility of individual prices with the observed persistence of aggregate inflation. We emphasize instead the importance of distinguishing between global and local shocks. We exploit a panel of 276 micro price levels collected on a semi-annual frequency from 1990 to 2010 across 88 cities in 59 countries around the world, that enables us to distinguish between different types (local and global) of micro and macro shocks. We find that global shocks have more persistent effects on prices as compared to local ones e.g. prices respond faster to local macro shocks than to global micro ones, implying that the relatively slow response of prices to macro shocks documented in recent studies comes from global rather than local sources. Global macro shocks have the most persistent effect on prices, with the majority of goods and locations sharing a single source of trend over time stemming from these shocks. Finally, both local macro and local micro shocks are associated with relatively fast price convergence.global shocks, local shocks, micro shocks, macro shocks, price adjustment, micro-macro gap, price-setting models, micro prices.

Mean Value Theorems for L-functions over Prime Polynomials for the Rational Function Field

The first and second moments are established for the family of quadratic Dirichlet $L$--functions over the rational function field at the central point $s=\tfrac{1}{2}$ where the character $\chi$ is defined by the Legendre symbol for polynomials over finite fields and runs over all monic irreducible polynomials $P$ of a given odd degree. Asymptotic formulae are derived for fixed finite fields when the degree of $P$ is large. The first moment obtained here is the function field analogue of a result due to Jutila in the number--field setting. The approach is based on classical analytical methods and relies on the use of the analogue of the approximate functional equation for these $L$--functions.Comment: 17 page

Conjectures for the integral moments and ratios of L-functions over function fields

We extend to the function field setting the heuristic previously developed, by Conrey, Farmer, Keating, Rubinstein and Snaith, for the integral moments and ratios of $L$-functions defined over number fields. Specifically, we give a heuristic for the moments and ratios of a family of $L$-functions associated with hyperelliptic curves of genus $g$ over a fixed finite field $\mathbb{F}_{q}$ in the limit as $g\rightarrow\infty$. Like in the number field case, there is a striking resemblance to the corresponding formulae for the characteristic polynomials of random matrices. As an application, we calculate the one-level density for the zeros of these $L$-functions.Comment: 40 page

Inattentive professional forecasters

We use the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters to characterize the dynamics of expectations at the micro level. We find that forecasters (i) have predictable forecast errors; (ii) disagree; (iii) fail to systematically update their forecasts in the wake of new information; (iv) disagree even when updating; and (v) differ in their frequency of updating and forecast performances. We argue that these micro data facts are qualitatively in line with recent models in which expectations are formed by inattentive agents. However building and estimating an expectation model that features two types of inattention, namely sticky information à la Mankiw-Reis and noisy information à la Sims, we cannot quantitatively generate the error and disagreement that are observed in the SPF data. The rejection is mainly due to the fact that professionals relatively agree on very sluggish forecasts.imperfect information, inattention, forecast errors, disagreement, business cycle.

Morphology, biostratigraphy, and evolution of PliocenePleistocene diatoms Proboscia barboi..

Proboscia barboi and Proboscia curvirostris are two important diatom biostratigraphic markers from the high latitudes of the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans, dating back to the Pliocene-Pleistocene time. This study analyzes the biostratigraphic events and describes the morphology of P. barboi and P. curvirostris, particularly the morphologic variations of the latter species, based on observations of samples of Core U1340A from the IODP Expedition 323 in the Bering Sea. In Site U1340, the First Occurrence of P. curvirostris is observed at 1.52Ma and its First Common Occurrence at 1.39Ma, where morphologic variations were found abundantly. The Last Occurrence of P. curvirostris was found at 0.33Ma, while P. barboi's Last Occurrence is found at 0.67Ma. Based on the morphological similarity and known biostratigraphic distribution, previous authors have assumed that P. curvirostris descends from P. barboi, although this hypothesis is still in debate. At 1.39Ma P. curvirostris shows an increased size and thickness, which is typical of P. barboi, and some specimens display an incipient structure characteristic of P. curvirostris - the secondary spine. This morphology is intermediate between the two species and suggests an evolutionary transition from P. barboi to P. curvirostris. However, P. curvirostris already existed since 1.9Ma in the subarctic indicating that its speciation happened much earlier than 1.39Ma. Furthermore, since P. barboi co-occurs with P. curvirostris in the North Pacific, this evolutionary process was cladogenetic. Besides being evidence for a phylogenetic relationship, the abundant occurrence of intermediate forms at 1.39Ma may constitute a bioevent for a short time interval in the Bering Sea.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Eccentricity fluctuations in an integrated hybrid approach: Influence on elliptic flow

The effects of initial state fluctuations on elliptic flow are investigated within a (3+1)d Boltzmann + hydrodynamics transport approach. The spatial eccentricity ($\epsilon_{\rm RP}$ and $\epsilon_{\rm part}$) is calculated for initial conditions generated by a hadronic transport approach (UrQMD). Elliptic flow results as a function of impact parameter, beam energy and transverse momentum for two different equations of state and for averaged initial conditions or a full event-by-event setup are presented. These investigations allow the conclusion that in mid-central ($b=5-9$ fm) heavy ion collisions the final elliptic flow is independent of the initial state fluctuations and the equation of state. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that most of the $v_2$ is build up during the hydrodynamic stage of the evolution. Therefore, the use of averaged initial profiles does not contribute to the uncertainties of the extraction of transport properties of hot and dense QCD matter based on viscous hydrodynamic calculations.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figures, minor revision of figures and conclusion, as published in PR