Inferring short-term volatility indicators from Bitcoin blockchain

In this paper, we study the possibility of inferring early warning indicators (EWIs) for periods of extreme bitcoin price volatility using features obtained from Bitcoin daily transaction graphs. We infer the low-dimensional representations of transaction graphs in the time period from 2012 to 2017 using Bitcoin blockchain, and demonstrate how these representations can be used to predict extreme price volatility events. Our EWI, which is obtained with a non-negative decomposition, contains more predictive information than those obtained with singular value decomposition or scalar value of the total Bitcoin transaction volume

Estimation in high dimensions: a geometric perspective

This tutorial provides an exposition of a flexible geometric framework for high dimensional estimation problems with constraints. The tutorial develops geometric intuition about high dimensional sets, justifies it with some results of asymptotic convex geometry, and demonstrates connections between geometric results and estimation problems. The theory is illustrated with applications to sparse recovery, matrix completion, quantization, linear and logistic regression and generalized linear models.Comment: 56 pages, 9 figures. Multiple minor change

N-acetylcysteine in a Double-Blind Randomized Placebo-Controlled Trial: Toward Biomarker-Guided Treatment in Early Psychosis.

Biomarker-guided treatments are needed in psychiatry, and previous data suggest oxidative stress may be a target in schizophrenia. A previous add-on trial with the antioxidant N-acetylcysteine (NAC) led to negative symptom reductions in chronic patients. We aim to study NAC's impact on symptoms and neurocognition in early psychosis (EP) and to explore whether glutathione (GSH)/redox markers could represent valid biomarkers to guide treatment. In a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial in 63 EP patients, we assessed the effect of NAC supplementation (2700 mg/day, 6 months) on PANSS, neurocognition, and redox markers (brain GSH [GSHmPFC], blood cells GSH levels [GSHBC], GSH peroxidase activity [GPxBC]). No changes in negative or positive symptoms or functional outcome were observed with NAC, but significant improvements were found in favor of NAC on neurocognition (processing speed). NAC also led to increases of GSHmPFC by 23% (P = .005) and GSHBC by 19% (P = .05). In patients with high-baseline GPxBC compared to low-baseline GPxBC, subgroup explorations revealed a link between changes of positive symptoms and changes of redox status with NAC. In conclusion, NAC supplementation in a limited sample of EP patients did not improve negative symptoms, which were at modest baseline levels. However, NAC led to some neurocognitive improvements and an increase in brain GSH levels, indicating good target engagement. Blood GPx activity, a redox peripheral index associated with brain GSH levels, could help identify a subgroup of patients who improve their positive symptoms with NAC. Thus, future trials with antioxidants in EP should consider biomarker-guided treatment

Genome-wide study of association and interaction with maternal cytomegalovirus infection suggests new schizophrenia loci.

Genetic and environmental components as well as their interaction contribute to the risk of schizophrenia, making it highly relevant to include environmental factors in genetic studies of schizophrenia. This study comprises genome-wide association (GWA) and follow-up analyses of all individuals born in Denmark since 1981 and diagnosed with schizophrenia as well as controls from the same birth cohort. Furthermore, we present the first genome-wide interaction survey of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and maternal cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection. The GWA analysis included 888 cases and 882 controls, and the follow-up investigation of the top GWA results was performed in independent Danish (1396 cases and 1803 controls) and German-Dutch (1169 cases, 3714 controls) samples. The SNPs most strongly associated in the single-marker analysis of the combined Danish samples were rs4757144 in ARNTL (P=3.78 × 10(-6)) and rs8057927 in CDH13 (P=1.39 × 10(-5)). Both genes have previously been linked to schizophrenia or other psychiatric disorders. The strongest associated SNP in the combined analysis, including Danish and German-Dutch samples, was rs12922317 in RUNDC2A (P=9.04 × 10(-7)). A region-based analysis summarizing independent signals in segments of 100 kb identified a new region-based genome-wide significant locus overlapping the gene ZEB1 (P=7.0 × 10(-7)). This signal was replicated in the follow-up analysis (P=2.3 × 10(-2)). Significant interaction with maternal CMV infection was found for rs7902091 (P(SNP × CMV)=7.3 × 10(-7)) in CTNNA3, a gene not previously implicated in schizophrenia, stressing the importance of including environmental factors in genetic studies

Cerebrospinal fluid in the differential diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease: clinical utility of an extended panel of biomarkers in a specialist cognitive clinic.

BACKGROUND: Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers are increasingly being used to support a diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Their clinical utility for differentiating AD from non-AD neurodegenerative dementias, such as dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) or frontotemporal dementia (FTD), is less well established. We aimed to determine the diagnostic utility of an extended panel of CSF biomarkers to differentiate AD from a range of other neurodegenerative dementias. METHODS: We used immunoassays to measure conventional CSF markers of amyloid and tau pathology (amyloid beta (Aβ)1-42, total tau (T-tau), and phosphorylated tau (P-tau)) as well as amyloid processing (AβX-38, AβX-40, AβX-42, soluble amyloid precursor protein (sAPP)α, and sAPPβ), large fibre axonal degeneration (neurofilament light chain (NFL)), and neuroinflammation (YKL-40) in 245 patients with a variety of dementias and 30 controls. Patients fulfilled consensus criteria for AD (n = 156), DLB (n = 20), behavioural variant frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD; n = 45), progressive non-fluent aphasia (PNFA; n = 17), and semantic dementia (SD; n = 7); approximately 10% were pathology/genetically confirmed (n = 26). Global tests based on generalised least squares regression were used to determine differences between groups. Non-parametric receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) analyses were used to quantify how well each biomarker discriminated AD from each of the other diagnostic groups (or combinations of groups). CSF cut-points for the major biomarkers found to have diagnostic utility were validated using an independent cohort which included causes of AD (n = 104), DLB (n = 5), bvFTD (n = 12), PNFA (n = 3), SD (n = 9), and controls (n = 10). RESULTS: There were significant global differences in Aβ1-42, T-tau, T-tau/Aβ1-42 ratio, P-tau-181, NFL, AβX-42, AβX-42/X-40 ratio, APPα, and APPβ between groups. At a fixed sensitivity of 85%, AβX-42/X-40 could differentiate AD from controls, bvFTD, and SD with specificities of 93%, 85%, and 100%, respectively; for T-tau/Aβ1-42 these specificities were 83%, 70%, and 86%. AβX-42/X-40 had similar or higher specificity than Aβ1-42. No biomarker or ratio could differentiate AD from DLB or PNFA with specificity > 50%. Similar sensitivities and specificities were found in the independent validation cohort for differentiating AD and other dementias and in a pathology/genetically confirmed sub-cohort. CONCLUSIONS: CSF AβX-42/X-40 and T-tau/Aβ1-42 ratios have utility in distinguishing AD from controls, bvFTD, and SD. None of the biomarkers tested had good specificity at distinguishing AD from DLB or PNFA

Increased ventral striatal volume in college-aged binge drinkers

BACKGROUND Binge drinking is a serious public health issue associated with cognitive, physiological, and anatomical differences from healthy individuals. No studies, however, have reported subcortical grey matter differences in this population. To address this, we compared the grey matter volumes of college-age binge drinkers and healthy controls, focusing on the ventral striatum, hippocampus and amygdala. METHOD T1-weighted images of 19 binge drinkers and 19 healthy volunteers were analyzed using voxel-based morphometry. Structural data were also covaried with Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) scores. Cluster-extent threshold and small volume corrections were both used to analyze imaging data. RESULTS Binge drinkers had significantly larger ventral striatal grey matter volumes compared to controls. There were no between group differences in hippocampal or amygdalar volume. Ventral striatal, amygdalar, and hippocampal volumes were also negatively related to AUDIT scores across groups. CONCLUSIONS Our findings stand in contrast to the lower ventral striatal volume previously observed in more severe forms of alcohol use disorders, suggesting that college-age binge drinkers may represent a distinct population from those groups. These findings may instead represent early sequelae, compensatory effects of repeated binge and withdrawal, or an endophenotypic risk factor

Reduced P300 amplitude during retrieval on a spatial working memory task in a community sample of adolescents who report psychotic symptoms.

BACKGROUND: Deficits in working memory are widely reported in schizophrenia and are considered a trait marker for the disorder. Event-related potentials (ERPs) and imaging data suggest that these differences in working memory performance may be due to aberrant functioning in the prefrontal and parietal cortices. Research suggests that many of the same risk factors for schizophrenia are shared with individuals from the general population who report psychotic symptoms. METHODS: Forty-two participants (age range 11--13 years) were divided into those who reported psychotic symptoms (N = 17) and those who reported no psychotic symptoms, i.e. the control group (N = 25). Behavioural differences in accuracy and reaction time were explored between the groups as well as electrophysiological correlates of working memory using a Spatial Working Memory Task, which was a variant of the Sternberg paradigm. Specifically, differences in the P300 component were explored across load level (low load and high load), location (positive probe i.e. in the same location as shown in the study stimulus and negative probe i.e. in a different location to the study stimulus) and between groups for the overall P300 timeframe. The effect of load was also explored at early and late timeframes of the P300 component (250-430 ms and 430-750 ms respectively). RESULTS: No between-group differences in the behavioural data were observed. Reduced amplitude of the P300 component was observed in the psychotic symptoms group relative to the control group at posterior electrode sites. Amplitude of the P300 component was reduced at high load for the late P300 timeframe at electrode sites Pz and POz. CONCLUSIONS: These results identify neural correlates of neurocognitive dysfunction associated with population level psychotic symptoms and provide insights into ERP abnormalities associated with the extended psychosis phenotype

Higher levels of glutamate in the associative-striatum of subjects with prodromal symptoms of schizophrenia and patients with first-episode psychosis

The glutamatergic and dopaminergic systems are thought to be involved in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia. Their interaction has been widely documented and may have a role in the neurobiological basis of the disease. The aim of this study was to compare, using proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS), glutamate levels in the precommissural dorsal-caudate (a dopamine-rich region) and the cerebellar cortex (negligible for dopamine) in the following: (1) 18 antipsychotic-naïve subjects with prodromal symptoms and considered to be at ultra high-risk for schizophrenia (UHR), (2) 18 antipsychotic-naïve first- episode psychosis patients (FEP), and (3) 40 age- and sex- matched healthy controls. All subjects underwent a 1H-MRS study using a 3Tesla scanner. Glutamate levels were quantified and corrected for the proportion of cerebrospinal fluid and percentage of gray matter in the voxel. The UHR and FEP groups showed higher levels of glutamate than controls, without differences between UHR and FEP. In the cerebellum, no differences were seen between the three groups. The higher glutamate level in the precommissural dorsal-caudate and not in the cerebellum of UHR and FEP suggests that a high glutamate level (a) precedes the onset of schizophrenia, and (b) is present in a dopamine-rich region previously implicated in the pathophysiology of schizophrenia.peer-reviewe