Guidelines for assessing the sources of risk and vulnerability

Social risk management (SRM) is a new means of looking at poverty, risk, and risk management that was recently presented in the World Bank's Social Protection Strategy Paper. The SRM perspective addresses how vulnerable households can be helped to better manage risks and become less susceptible to potentially damaging welfare losses. This paper provides some basic concepts and guidelines for organizing ideas and information that are relevant to risk and vulnerability assessments. Several templates are provided in the Annex, along with a list of completed and ongoing World Bank reports that investigate risk and vulnerability.Insurance&Risk Mitigation,Health Economics&Finance,Environmental Economics&Policies,Social Risk Management,Banking Law

A bibliography of papers on the diffuse interstellar bands

Presented is a compilation of publications on the diffuse interstellar bands, found in the literature dating back to the first known mention of the bands. It has been attempted to make this list complete, but it must be recognized that some papers may be missing. Judgement was required in some cases where the diffuse bands are mentioned, but are not a central theme of a paper; in most instances we kept such papers in a list, rather than omitting them

DI Diesel Engine Combustion Visualized by Combined Laser Techniques

In this work we demonstrate that the progress of the combustionccycle in a four-cylinder (in-line) 1.9 1 direct injection Diesel engine can be studied effectively using different laser visualization techniques. Direct optical access to the piston bowl was facilitated by inserting quartz windows in one of the pistons. The flow field at the time of injection was characterized by seeding the flow and illuminating the piston bowl with a laser light sheet. Fuel spray development, auto-ignition and flame propagation in a Diesel cycle were followed by laser shadowgraphy and high speed cinematography while simultaneous laser induced fluorescence (LIF) and Mie scattering images were taken to distinguish the fuel distribution in the liquid and vapor phase. In addition, two dimensional distributions of OH and NO, formed during n-heptane/air combustion in the same engine, were recorded in the pressure range 5 to 50 bar by LIF following narrowband excitation using tunable excimer lasers. Finally, further work, designed to obtain quantitative images and hence data for comparison with model calculations, is outlined.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/86790/1/Sick50.pd

The variable magnetic field of V889 Her and the challenge of detecting exoplanets around young Suns using Gaussian process regression

Discovering exoplanets orbiting young Suns can provide insight into the formation and early evolution of our own solar system, but the extreme magnetic activity of young stars obfuscates exoplanet detection. Here we monitor the long-term magnetic field and chromospheric activity variability of the young solar analogue V889 Her, model the activity-induced radial velocity variations and evaluate the impacts of extreme magnetism on exoplanet detection thresholds. We map the magnetic field and surface brightness for 14 epochs between 2004 and 2019. Our results show potential 3-4 yr variations of the magnetic field which evolves from weak and simple during chromospheric activity minima to strong and complex during activity maxima but without any polarity reversals. A persistent, temporally-varying polar spot coexists with weaker, short-lived lower-latitude spots. Due to their different decay time-scales, significant differential rotation and the limited temporal coverage of our legacy data, we were unable to reliably model the activity-induced radial velocity using Gaussian Process regression. Doppler Imaging can be a useful method for modelling the magnetic activity jitter of extremely active stars using data with large phase gaps. Given our data and using Doppler Imaging to filter activity jitter, we estimate that we could detect Jupiter-mass planets with orbital periods of $\sim$3 d. A longer baseline of continuous observations is the best observing strategy for the detection of exoplanets orbiting highly active stars.Comment: Accepted by MNRA

The mechanical properties of natural fibre composite laminates: a statistical study

The use of long natural fibres (LNF) as reinforcement in composite systems for structural applications has been steadily growing in the automotive and construction industries as these materials offer sustainability benefits combined with high specific strength and stiffness. However, the performance of natural fibres has been questioned by a high variability in their mechanical properties and design data for structural reliability analysis of LNF composites are not yet available. Here, we present a statistical study of the elastic modulus, strength and failure strain of a comprehensive set of LNF composite systems. We have found that the variability of LNF laminate properties is similar to that of carbon fibre laminates. We provide recommendations to apply the statistical parameters determined here to the design of natural fibre composite structures. Our findings provide a deeper understanding of LNF composites reliability and are important for the further acceptance of these materials by the industry

The CHEOPS view of the climate of WASP-3 b

Context. Hot Jupiters are giant planets subject to intense stellar radiation. The physical and chemical properties of their atmosphere make them the most amenable targets for atmospheric characterization. Aims. In this paper we analyze the photometry collected during the secondary eclipses of the hot Jupiter WASP-3 b by CHEOPS, TESS, and Spitzer. Our aim is to characterize the atmosphere of the planet by measuring the secondary eclipse depth in several passbands and constrain the planetary dayside spectrum. Methods. We updated the radius and the ephemeris of WASP-3 b by analyzing the transit photometry collected by CHEOPS and TESS. We also analyzed the CHEOPS, TESS, and Spitzer photometry of the occultations of the planet, measuring the eclipse depth at different wavelengths. Results. Our update of the stellar and planetary properties is consistent with previous works. The analysis of the occultations returns an eclipse depth of 92±21 ppm in the CHEOPS passband, 83±27 ppm for TESS, and >2000 ppm in the IRAC 1-2-4 Spitzer passbands. Using the eclipse depths in the Spitzer bands, we propose a set of likely emission spectra that constrain the emission contribution in the CHEOPS and TESS passbands to approximately a few dozen parts per million. This allowed us to measure a geometric albedo of 0.21±0.07 in the CHEOPS passband, while the TESS data lead to a 95% upper limit of ∼0.2. Conclusions. WASP-3 b belongs to the group of ultra-hot Jupiters that are characterized by a low Bond albedo (<0.3±0.1), as predicted by different atmospheric models. On the other hand, it seems to efficiently recirculate the absorbed stellar energy, which is not typical for similar, highly irradiated planets. To explain this inconsistency, we propose that other energy recirculation mechanisms are at play besides advection (for example, the dissociation and recombination of H2). Another possibility is that the observations in different bandpasses probe different atmospheric layers; this would make the atmospheric analysis difficult without an appropriate modeling of the thermal emission spectrum of WASP-3 b, which is not feasible with the limited spectroscopic data available to date

The K2-24 planetary system revisited by CHEOPS

The planetary system K2-24 is composed of two transiting low-density Neptunians locked in an almost perfect 2:1 resonance and showing large transit time variations (TTVs), and it is an excellent laboratory to search for signatures of planetary migration. Previous studies performed with K2, Spitzer, and RV data tentatively claimed a significant non-zero eccentricity for one or both planets, possibly high enough to challenge the scenario of pure disk migration through resonant capture. With 13 new CHEOPS light curves (seven of planet b, six of planet c), we carried out a global photometric and dynamical re-analysis by including all the available literature data as well. We obtained the most accurate set of planetary parameters to date for the K2-24 system, including radii and masses at 1% and 5% precision (now essentially limited by the uncertainty on stellar parameters) and non-zero eccentricities eb = 0.0498−0.0018+0.0011, ec = 0.0282−0.0007+0.0003 detected at very high significance for both planets. Such relatively large values imply the need for an additional physical mechanism of eccentricity excitation during or after the migration stage. Also, while the accuracy of the previous TTV model had drifted by up to 0.5 days at the current time, we constrained the orbital solution firmly enough to predict the forthcoming transits for the next ~15 years, thus enabling efficient follow-up with top-level facilities such as JWST or ESPRESSO

Unveiling the internal structure and formation history of the three planets transiting HIP 29442 (TOI-469) with CHEOPS

Multiplanetary systems spanning the radius valley are ideal testing grounds for exploring the different proposed explanations for the observed bimodality in the radius distribution of close-in exoplanets. One such system is HIP 29442 (TOI-469), an evolved K0V star hosting two super-Earths and one sub-Neptune. We observed HIP 29442 with CHEOPS for a total of 9.6 days, which we modelled jointly with two sectors of TESS data to derive planetary radii of 3.410 ± 0.046, 1.551 ± 0.045, and 1.538 ± 0.049 R⊕ for planets b, c, and d, which orbit HIP 29442 with periods of 13.6, 3.5, and 6.4 days, respectively. For planet d this value deviates by more than 3σ from the median value reported in the discovery paper, leading us to conclude that caution is required when using TESS photometry to determine the radii of small planets with low per-transit signal-to-noise ratios and large gaps between observations. Given the high precision of these new radii, combining them with published RVs from ESPRESSO and HIRES provides us with ideal conditions to investigate the internal structure and formation pathways of the planets in the system. We introduced the publicly available code plaNETic, a fast and robust neural network-based Bayesian internal structure modelling framework. We then applied hydrodynamic models to explore the upper atmospheric properties of these inferred structures. Finally, we identified planetary system analogues in a synthetic population generated with the Bern model for planet formation and evolution. Based on this analysis, we find that the planets likely formed on opposing sides of the water iceline from a protoplanetary disk with an intermediate solid mass. We finally report that the observed parameters of the HIP 29442 system are compatible with a scenario where the second peak in the bimodal radius distribution corresponds to sub-Neptunes with a pure H/He envelope and with a scenario with water-rich sub-Neptunes

The variable magnetic field of V889 Her and the challenge of detecting exoplanets around young Suns using Gaussian process regression

Discovering exoplanets orbiting young Suns can provide insight into the formation and early evolution of our own solar system, but the extreme magnetic activity of young stars obfuscates exoplanet detection. Here we monitor the long-term magnetic field and chromospheric activity variability of the young solar analogue V889 Her, model the activity-induced radial velocity variations and evaluate the impacts of extreme magnetism on exoplanet detection thresholds. We map the magnetic field and surface brightness for 14 epochs between 2004 and 2019. Our results show potential 3-4 yr variations of the magnetic field which evolves from weak and simple during chromospheric activity minima to strong and complex during activity maxima but without any polarity reversals. A persistent, temporally-varying polar spot coexists with weaker, short-lived lower-latitude spots. Due to their different decay time-scales, significant differential rotation and the limited temporal coverage of our legacy data, we were unable to reliably model the activity-induced radial velocity using Gaussian Process regression. Doppler Imaging can be a useful method for modelling the magnetic activity jitter of extremely active stars using data with large phase gaps. Given our data and using Doppler Imaging to filter activity jitter, we estimate that we could detect Jupiter-mass planets with orbital periods of ∼3 d. A longer baseline of continuous observations is the best observing strategy for the detection of exoplanets orbiting highly active stars