Acidification and recovery of aquatic ecosystems in south central Ontario, Canada: regional application of the MAGIC model

International audienceThe dynamic model MAGIC was applied to 25 lakes in south-central Ontario, Canada using a regional modelling methodology. Soil and lake water chemistry for each lake catchment was simulated for the period 1850?2050. Sulphate (SO42?) deposition forecasts were derived from recently proposed emission reductions, which correspond roughly to a 50% reduction in SO42? deposition by 2010 from the 2000 baseline. Changes in SO42? deposition had a significant impact on lake chemistry. Simulated lake water chemistry showed a recovery potential under the current deposition scenario; by 2050 concentration levels recovered to values predicted for the early 1900s. Moreover, simulated future lake water chemistry showed significant recovery compared to 1975 levels. However, although regional simulations predict that base cation losses have decreased in recent years, soils in the region will continue to acidify with Ca2+ losses dominating depletion of the exchangeable pool. Base cation losses from the exchangeable pool are currently buffering lakes against the impacts of acid deposition; ultimately base cation inputs into the lakes will decrease as exchangeable base cation pools become depleted. Further emission reductions are necessary to ensure continued recovery from acidification. Keywords: regional dynamic model, sulphate, acid neutralising capacity, critical loads, lake chemistry, soil base saturatio

Studying Atomic Physics Using the Nighttime Atmosphere as a Laboratory

A summary of our recent work using terrestrial nightglow spectra, obtained from astronomical instrumentation, to directly measure, or evaluate theoretical values for fundamental parameters of astrophysically important atomic lines

Radiative association and inverse predissociation of oxygen atoms

The formation of \mbox{O}_2 by radiative association and by inverse predissociation of ground state oxygen atoms is studied using quantum-mechanical methods. Cross sections, emission spectra, and rate coefficients are presented and compared with prior experimental and theoretical results. At temperatures below 1000~K radiative association occurs by approach along the $1\,{}^3\Pi_u$ state of \mbox{O}_2 and above 1000~K inverse predissociation through the \mbox{B}\,{}^3\Sigma_u^- state is the dominant mechanism. This conclusion is supported by a quantitative comparison between the calculations and data obtained from hot oxygen plasma spectroscopy.Comment: submitted to Phys. Rev. A (Sept. 7., 1994), 19 pages, 4 figures, latex (revtex3.0 and epsf.sty

Respiratory virus infection up-regulates TRPV1, TRPA1 and ASICS3 receptors on airway cells.

Receptors implicated in cough hypersensitivity are transient receptor potential vanilloid 1 (TRPV1), transient receptor potential cation channel, Subfamily A, Member 1 (TRPA1) and acid sensing ion channel receptor 3 (ASIC3). Respiratory viruses, such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and measles virus (MV) may interact directly and/or indirectly with these receptors on sensory nerves and epithelial cells in the airways. We used in vitro models of sensory neurones (SHSY5Y or differentiated IMR-32 cells) and human bronchial epithelium (BEAS-2B cells) as well as primary human bronchial epithelial cells (PBEC) to study the effect of MV and RSV infection on receptor expression. Receptor mRNA and protein levels were examined by qPCR and flow cytometry, respectively, following infection or treatment with UV inactivated virus, virus-induced soluble factors or pelleted virus. Concentrations of a range of cytokines in resultant BEAS-2B and PBEC supernatants were determined by ELISA. Up-regulation of TRPV1, TRPA1 and ASICS3 expression occurred by 12 hours post-infection in each cell type. This was independent of replicating virus, within the same cell, as virus-induced soluble factors alone were sufficient to increase channel expression. IL-8 and IL-6 increased in infected cell supernatants. Antibodies against these factors inhibited TRP receptor up-regulation. Capsazepine treatment inhibited virus induced up-regulation of TRPV1 indicating that these receptors are targets for treating virus-induced cough

The common vaginal commensal bacterium Ureaplasma parvum is associated with chorioamnionitis in extreme preterm labour

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of vaginal commensal and low grade pathogenic bacteria including Ureaplasma parvum, Ureaplasma urealyticum, Mycoplasma hominis, Mycoplasma genitalium, Group B Streptococcus (GBS), and Gardnerella vaginalis, in women who delivered preterm at less than 37 weeks gestation in the presence or absence of inflammation of the chorioamnionitic membranes.METHODS: A case control study involving women who delivered before 37 weeks gestation with and without inflammation of chorioamnionitic membranes. A total of 57 placental samples were histologically examined for polymorphonuclear leukocyte infiltration of placental tissue for evidence of chorioamnionitis, and by type-specific nucleic acid amplification for evidence of infection with one or more of the target bacteria. Demographic data was collected for each mother.RESULTS: Amongst the 57 placental samples, 42.1% had chorioamnionitis and 24.6% delivered in the second trimester of pregnancy; U. parvum, U. urealyticum, G. vaginalis and GBS were all detected in the study with respective prevalence of 19.3%, 3.5%, 17.5% and 15.8%; M.genitalium and M. hominis were not detected. U. parvum was significantly associated with chorioamnionitis (p value = 0.02; OR 5.0; (95% CI 1.2-21.5) and was more common in women who delivered in the second (35.7%) compared to the third trimester of pregnancy (13.9%). None of the other bacteria were associated with chorioamnionitis or earlier delivery and all G.vaginalis positive women delivered in the third trimester of pregnancy (p value 0.04).CONCLUSIONS: The detection of U. parvum in placental tissue was significantly associated with acute chorioamnionitis in women presenting in extreme preterm labour.</p

A cognitive forcing tool to mitigate cognitive bias:A randomised control trial

Abstract Background Cognitive bias is an important source of diagnostic error yet is a challenging area to understand and teach. Our aim was to determine whether a cognitive forcing tool can reduce the rates of error in clinical decision making. A secondary objective was to understand the process by which this effect might occur. Methods We hypothesised that using a cognitive forcing tool would reduce diagnostic error rates. To test this hypothesis, a novel online case-based approach was used to conduct a single blinded randomized clinical trial conducted from January 2017 to September 2018. In addition, a qualitative series of “think aloud” interviews were conducted with 20 doctors from a UK teaching hospital in 2018. The primary outcome was the diagnostic error rate when solving bias inducing clinical vignettes. A volunteer sample of medical professionals from across the UK, Republic of Ireland and North America. They ranged in seniority from medical student to Attending Physician. Results Seventy six participants were included in the study. The data showed doctors of all grades routinely made errors related to cognitive bias. There was no difference in error rates between groups (mean 2.8 cases correct in intervention vs 3.1 in control group, 95% CI -0.94 – 0.45 P = 0.49). The qualitative protocol revealed that the cognitive forcing strategy was well received and a produced a subjectively positive impact on doctors’ accuracy and thoughtfulness in clinical cases. Conclusions The quantitative data failed to show an improvement in accuracy despite a positive qualitative experience. There is insufficient evidence to recommend this tool in clinical practice, however the qualitative data suggests such an approach has some merit and face validity to users

Spatial patterns and environmental constraints on ecosystem services at a catchment scale

Improved understanding and prediction of the fundamental environmental controls on ecosystem service supply across the landscape will help to inform decisions made by policy makers and land-water managers. To evaluate this issue for a local catchment case study, we explored metrics and spatial patterns of service supply for water quality regulation, agriculture production, carbon storage, and biodiversity for the Macronutrient Conwy catchment. Methods included using ecosystem models such as LUCI and JULES, integration of national scale field survey datasets, earth observation products and plant trait databases, to produce finely resolved maps of species richness and primary production. Analyses were done with both 1x1 km gridded and subcatchment data. A common single gradient characterised catchment scale ecosystem services supply with agricultural production and carbon storage at opposing ends of the gradient as reported for a national-scale assessment. Species diversity was positively related to production due to the below national average productivity levels in the Conwy combined with the unimodal relationship between biodiversity and productivity at the national scale. In contrast to the national scale assessment, a strong reduction in water quality as production increased was observed in these low productive systems. Various soil variables were tested for their predictive power of ecosystem service supply. Soil carbon, nitrogen, their ratio and soil pH all had double the power of rainfall and altitude, each explaining around 45% of variation but soil pH is proposed as a potential metric for ecosystem service supply potential as it is a simple and practical metric which can be carried out in the field with crowd-sourcing technologies now available. The study emphasises the importance of considering multiple ecosystem services together due to the complexity of covariation at local and national scales, and the benefits of exploiting a wide range of metrics for each service to enhance data robustness

Patterns and trends of topsoil carbon in the UK: complex interactions of land use change, climate and pollution

The UK Countryside Survey (CS) is a national long-term survey of soils and vegetation that spans three decades (1978–2007). Past studies using CS data have identified clear contrasting trends in topsoil organic carbon (tSOC) concentrations (0–15 cm) related to differences between habitat types. Here we firstly examine changes in tSOC resulting from land use change, and secondly construct mixed models to describe the impact of indirect drivers where land use has been constant. Where it occurs, land use change is a strong driver of SOC change, with largest changes in tSOC for transitions involving SOC-rich soils in upland and bog systems. Afforestation did not always increase tSOC, and the effect of transitions involving woodland was dependent on the other vegetation type. The overall national spatial pattern of tSOC concentration where land use has been constant is most strongly related to vegetation type and topsoil pH, with contributions from climate variables, deposition and geology. Comparisons of models for tSOC across time periods suggest that declining SO4 deposition has allowed recovery of topsoils from acidification, but that this has not resulted in the increased decomposition rates and loss of tSOC which might be expected. As a result, the relationship between pH and tSOC in UK topsoils has changed significantly between 1978 and 2007. The contributions of other indirect drivers in the models suggest negative relationships to seasonal temperature metrics and positive relationships to seasonal precipitation at the dry end of the scale. The results suggest that the CS approach of long-term collection of co-located vegetation and soil biophysical data provides essential tools both for identifying trends in tSOC at national and habitat levels, and for identifying areas of risk or areas with opportunities for managing topsoil SOC and vegetation change

O₂ photoabsorption in the 40 950–41 300 cm⁻¹ region: New Herzberg bands, new absorption lines, and improved spectroscopic data

The technique of cavity ring‐down (CRD) spectroscopy is particularly useful for measuring absorptions of very weak optical transitions. We have in this manner investigated the 40 950–41 300 cm−1 region in O2, where only absorption in the O2(A 3Σ+u–X 3Σ−g) 11‐0 band had been previously identified. Five new bands have been discovered in this range—the A′ 3Δu–X 3Σ−g 12‐0 and 13‐0 bands, the c 1Σ−u–X 3Σ−g 17‐0 and 18‐0 bands, and the A 3Σ+u−X 3Σ−g 12‐0 band. The origins of the F1 and F2 components of the latter lie only 7 cm−1 below the lowest dissociation limit, and 15 lines have been identified. No F3 levels were observed; apparently all are above the dissociation limit. The high instrumental sensitivity of the CRD technique has allowed observation of weak lines of the A–X 11‐0 band, and 12 of the 13 branches have been identified and their intensities measured. A very low upper limit has been set on the intensity of the thirteenth branch, Q13. We find 107 unidentified lines in the region, the stronger ones (19) lying in the vicinity of lines of the A–X 11‐0 band. The weaker ones (88) are spread throughout the spectral region, up to and even beyond the O2dissociation limit, and probably have their origin in transitions to very weakly bound O2 states, which may have atmospheric significance. These weaker lines have intensities that are typically 1%–5% of the strong A–X 11‐0 band lines

Glastir Monitoring & Evaluation Programme. Second year annual report

What is the purpose of Glastir Monitoring and Evaluation Programme? Glastir is the main scheme by which the Welsh Government pays for environmental goods and services whilst the Glastir Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (GMEP) evaluates the scheme’s success. Commissioning of the monitoring programme in parallel with the launch of the Glastir scheme provides fast feedback and means payments can be modified to increase effectiveness. The Glastir scheme is jointly funded by the Welsh Government (through the Rural Development Plan) and the EU. GMEP will also support a wide range of other national and international reporting requirements. What is the GMEP approach? GMEP collects evidence for the 6 intended outcomes from the Glastir scheme which are focussed on climate change, water and soil quality, biodiversity, landscape, access and historic environment, woodland creation and management. Activities include; a national rolling monitoring programme of 1km squares; new analysis of long term data from other schemes combining with GMEP data where possible; modelling to estimate future outcomes so that adjustments can be made to maximise impact of payments; surveys to assess wider socio-economic benefits; and development of novel technologies to increase detection and efficiency of future assessments. How has GMEP progressed in this 2nd year? 90 GMEP squares were surveyed in Year 2 to add to the 60 completed in Year 1 resulting in 50% of the 300 GMEP survey squares now being completed. Squares will be revisited on a 4 year cycle providing evidence of change in response to Glastir and other pressures such as changing economics of the farm business, climate change and air pollution. This first survey cycle collects the baseline against which future changes will be assessed. This is important as GMEP work this year has demonstrated land coming into the scheme is different in some respects to land outside the scheme. Therefore, future analysis to detect impact of Glastir will be made both against the national backdrop from land outside the scheme and this baseline data from land in scheme. A wide range of analyses of longterm data has been completed for all Glastir Outcomes with the exception of landscape quality and historic features condition for which limited data is available. This has involved combining data with 2013/14 GMEP data when methods allow. Overall analysis of long term data indicates one of stability but with little evidence of improvement with the exception of headwater quality, greenhouse gas emissions and woodland area for which there has been improvement over the last 20 years. Some headline statistics include: 51% of historic features in excellent or sound condition; two thirds of public rights of way fully open and accessible; improvement in hedgerow management with 85% surveyed cut in the last 3 years but < 1% recently planted; 91% of streams had some level of modification but 60% retained good ecological quality; no change topsoil carbon content over last 25 years. What is innovative? GMEP has developed various new metrics to allow for more streamlined reporting in the future. For example a new Priority Bird species Index for Wales which combines data from 35 species indicates at least half have stable or increasing populations. The new GMEP Visual Quality Landscape Index has been tested involving over 2600 respondents. Results have demonstrated its value as an objective and repeatable method for quantifying change in visual landscape quality. A new unified peat map for Wales has been developed which has been passed to Glastir Contract Managers to improve targeting of payments when negotiating Glastir contracts. An estimate of peat soil contribution to current greenhouse gas emissions due to human modification has been calculated. Models have allowed quantification of land area helping to mitigate rainfall runoff. We are using new molecular tools to explore the effects of Glastir on soil organisms and satellite technologies to quantify e.g. small woody features and landcover change. Finally we are using a community approach to develop a consensus on how to define and report change in High Nature Value Farmland which will be reported in the Year 3 GMEP report