Foray search: An effective systematic dispersal strategy in fragmented landscapes

In the absence of evidence to the contrary, population models generally assume that the dispersal trajectories of animals are random, but systematic dispersal could be more efficient at detecting new habitat and may therefore constitute a more realistic assumption. Here, we investigate, by means of simulations, the properties of a potentially widespread systematic dispersal strategy termed "foray search." Foray search was more efficient in detecting suitable habitat than was random dispersal in most landscapes and was less subject to energetic constraints. However, it also resulted in considerably shorter net dispersed distances and higher mortality per net dispersed distance than did random dispersal, and it would therefore be likely to lead to lower dispersal rates toward the margins of population networks. Consequently, the use of foray search by dispersers could crucially affect the extinction-colonization balance of metapopulations and the evolution of dispersal rates. We conclude that population models need to take the dispersal trajectories of individuals into account in order to make reliable predictions

The Presence of the Past: Culture, Opinion and Identity in Germany

Also CSST Working Paper #125.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/51316/1/552.pd

Non-random dispersal in the butterfly Maniola jurtina: implications for metapopulation models

The dispersal patterns of animals are important in metapopulation ecology because they affect the dynamics and survival of populations. Theoretical models assume random dispersal but little is known in practice about the dispersal behaviour of individual animals or the strategy by which dispersers locate distant habitat patches. In the present study, we released individual meadow brown butterflies (Maniola jurtina) in a non-habitat and investigated their ability to return to a suitable habitat. The results provided three reasons for supposing that meadow brown butterflies do not seek habitat by means of random flight. First, when released within the range of their normal dispersal distances, the butterflies orientated towards suitable habitat at a higher rate than expected at random. Second, when released at larger distances from their habitat, they used a non-random, systematic, search strategy in which they flew in loops around the release point and returned periodically to it. Third, butterflies returned to a familiar habitat patch rather than a non-familiar one when given a choice. If dispersers actively orientate towards or search systematically for distant habitat, this may be problematic for existing metapopulation models, including models of the evolution of dispersal rates in metapopulations

Impacts of global change on water-related sectors and society in a trans-boundary central European river basin – Part 1: Project framework and impacts on agriculture

Central Europe, the focus region of this study, is a region in transition, climatically from maritime to continental and politically from formerly more planning-oriented to more market-oriented management regimes, and in terms of climate change from regions of increasing precipitation in the west and north of Europe to regions of decreasing precipitation in central and southern Europe. The Elbe basin, a trans-boundary catchment flowing from the Czech Republic through Germany into the North Sea, was selected to investigate the possible impacts of global change on crop yields and water resources in this region. For technical reasons, the paper has been split into two parts, the first showing the overall model concept, the model set-up for the agricultural sector, and first results linking eco-hydrological and agro-economic tools for the German part of the basin. The second part describes the model set-up for simulating water supply and demand linking eco-hydrological and water management tools for the entire basin including the Czech part

Small DNA Pieces in C. elegans Are Intermediates of DNA Fragmentation during Apoptosis

While studying small noncoding RNA in C. elegans, we discovered that protocols used for isolation of RNA are contaminated with small DNA pieces. After electrophoresis on a denaturing gel, the DNA fragments appear as a ladder of bands, ∼10 nucleotides apart, mimicking the pattern of nuclease digestion of DNA wrapped around a nucleosome. Here we show that the small DNA pieces are products of the DNA fragmentation that occurs during apoptosis, and correspondingly, are absent in mutant strains incapable of apoptosis. In contrast, the small DNA pieces are present in strains defective for the engulfment process of apoptosis, suggesting they are produced in the dying cell prior to engulfment. While the small DNA pieces are also present in a number of strains with mutations in predicted nucleases, they are undetectable in strains containing mutations in nuc-1, which encodes a DNase II endonuclease. We find that the small DNA pieces can be labeled with terminal deoxynucleotidyltransferase only after phosphatase treatment, as expected if they are products of DNase II cleavage, which generates a 3′ phosphate. Our studies reveal a previously unknown intermediate in the process of apoptotic DNA fragmentation and thus bring us closer to defining this important pathway

Swarm Intelligence in Animal Groups: When Can a Collective Out-Perform an Expert?

An important potential advantage of group-living that has been mostly neglected by life scientists is that individuals in animal groups may cope more effectively with unfamiliar situations. Social interaction can provide a solution to a cognitive problem that is not available to single individuals via two potential mechanisms: (i) individuals can aggregate information, thus augmenting their ‘collective cognition’, or (ii) interaction with conspecifics can allow individuals to follow specific ‘leaders’, those experts with information particularly relevant to the decision at hand. However, a-priori, theory-based expectations about which of these decision rules should be preferred are lacking. Using a set of simple models, we present theoretical conditions (involving group size, and diversity of individual information) under which groups should aggregate information, or follow an expert, when faced with a binary choice. We found that, in single-shot decisions, experts are almost always more accurate than the collective across a range of conditions. However, for repeated decisions – where individuals are able to consider the success of previous decision outcomes – the collective's aggregated information is almost always superior. The results improve our understanding of how social animals may process information and make decisions when accuracy is a key component of individual fitness, and provide a solid theoretical framework for future experimental tests where group size, diversity of individual information, and the repeatability of decisions can be measured and manipulated

Challenges in Complex Systems Science

FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda

Out of Sight but Not Out of Mind? Behavioral Coordination in Red-Tailed Sportive Lemurs (Lepilemur ruficaudatus)

Many animals are organized into social groups and have to synchronize their activities to maintain group cohesion. Although activity budgets, habitat constraints, and group properties may impact on behavioural synchrony, little is known regarding how members of a group reach a consensus on the timing of activities such as foraging bouts. Game theory predicts that pair partners should synchronize their activities when there is an advantage of foraging together. As a result of this synchronization, differences in the energetic reserves of the two players develop spontaneously and the individual with lower reserves emerges as a pacemaker of the synchrony. Here, we studied the behavioral synchrony of pair-living, nocturnal, red-tailed sportive lemurs (Lepilemur ruficaudatus). We observed 8 pairs continuously for ≥1 annual reproductive cycle in Kirindy Forest, Western Madagascar. During focal observations, one observer followed the female of a pair and, simultaneously, another observer followed the male. We recorded the location and behavioral state of the focal individual every 5 min via instantaneous sampling. Although behavioral synchrony of pair partners appeared to be due mainly to endogenous activity patterns, they actively synchronized when they were in visual contact (<10 m). Nevertheless, red-tailed sportive lemurs benefit from synchronizing their activity only for 15% of the time, when they are close together. The lack of an early warning system for predators and weak support for benefits via social information transfer in combination with energetic constraints may explain why red-tailed sportive lemurs do not spend more time together and thus reap the benefits of behavioral synchrony