Does money matter in inflation forecasting?.

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two non-linear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression - techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation

Processing of cellular ceramics by foaming and in situ polymerisation of organic monomers

This paper describes studies on a new processing route for fabricating highly porous ceramics. The method is based on the generation of a foam from an aqueous suspension of ceramic powder and the subsequent stabilisation of the structure by in situ polymerisation of organic monomers. The influence of the slip viscosity on the foam volume and stability was determined using concentrated alumina suspensions containing dispersing agents and two commercial foaming agents. The in situ polymerisation of organic monomers led to fast solidification, resulting in strong, porous bodies which could withstand machining. The resulting ceramic foams consisted of a highly interconnected network of spherical cells with densities as low as 6% of theoretical. The distribution of cell size was dependent both on the density of the specimen produced and on the time for polymerisation onset. The size ranged from approximately 30 to 600 mm. Enlargement of cell size to achieve materials of higher permeability was possible through expansion of the foam via pressure reduction before polymerisation. The creation of highly densified struts between the cells led to flexural strengths as high as 26 MPa

Enhancing evaporative mass transfer and steam stripping using microwave heating

The effect of microwave heating on evaporative mass transfer of hydrocarbons was investigated for a number of contaminated solid materials. The rate of oil removal could be rationalised by the velocity of steam that was created by selective heating of water within the solid. A single correlation was found to fit 45 independent experiments across 10 separate variables, and the correlation was consistent with the physics of evaporative mass transfer. It is shown for the first time that steam stripping is the dominant mechanism that governs hydrocarbon removal during microwave processing. It was further discovered that mass transfer is enhanced due to microwave heating when compared to conventional stripping processes, with this improvement in efficiency due to the ability of the microwave process to overcome the channelling effects that limit conventional mass transfer processes

Understanding Microwave Heating in Biomass-Solvent Systems

A new mechanism is proposed to provide a viable physical explanation for the action of microwaves in solvent extraction processes. The key innovation is Temperature-Induced Diffusion, a recently-demonstrated phenomenon that results from selective heating using microwaves. A mechanism is presented which incorporates microwave heating, cellular expansion, heat transfer and mass transfer, all of which affect the pressure of cell structures within biomass. The cell-pressure is modelled with time across a range of physical and process variables, and compared with the expected outputs from the existing steam-rupture theory. It is shown that steam-rupture is only possible at the extreme fringes of realistic physical parameters, but Temperature-Induced Diffusion is able to explain cell-rupture across a broad and realistic range of physical parameters and heating conditions. Temperature-Induced Diffusion is the main principle that governs microwave-assisted extraction, and this paves the way to being able to select processing conditions and feedstocks based solely on their physical properties. Graphical abstract Keywords Microwave processing, heat transfer, mass transfer, plant cell rupture, cellular expansion mechanics, solvent extractio

Solvothermal nanoYAG synthesis: Mechanism and particle growth kinetics

This paper was accepted for publication in the journal Journal of Supercritical Fluids and the definitive published version is available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.supflu.2015.09.031NanoYAG particles with spherical morphology have been synthesised using a solvothermal method; a structure sensitive reaction, where the chemical reaction and the particle growth kinetics are interdependent. It has been observed that the primary YAG particles agglomerated into ∼30 nm clusters via a self-assembled Ostwald ripening process along (2 1 1) planes, separated by a distance of ∼0.49 nm, at 270 °C and 2.0 MPa for 2 h. These nanoclusters coalesced into single nanoparticles of ∼30 nm in size and exhibited a smaller inter planar distance of ∼0.26 nm, corresponding to the (4 2 0) planes, when synthesized at 300 °C and 8.5 MPa for 2 h. in addition, the solvent 1,4-butanediol transformed into 1,4-diacetoxybutane, this will have undergone esterification by reacting with the terminal acetate groups cleaved from the precursor, yttrium acetate. The proposed mechanism based on the analytical evidence suggests that a complete dissolution of precursors facilitated the structural re-arrangement of atoms within the planes and lead to a significantly higher degree of crystallinity. Moreover, once the particles with (4 2 0) planes had formed, they were no longer involved in facile coalescence along their preferential planes due to their lower interfacial energy compared to the (2 1 1) planes. This led to control of the particle morphology and with little agglomeration occurring in the final nanopowder

Evolution, recurrency and kernels in learning to model inflation

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. We use non-linear, artificial intelligence techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks, evolution strategies and kernel methods in our forecasting experiment. In the experiment, these three methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naive random walk model. The best models were non-linear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. There is evidence in the literature that evolutionary methods can be used to evolve kernels hence our future work should combine the evolutionary and kernel methods to get the benefits of both

Optimisation of extraction and sludge dewatering efficiencies of bio-flocculants extracted from Abelmoschus esculentus (okra)

The production of natural biopolymers as flocculants for water treatment is highly desirable due to their inherent low toxicity and low environmental footprint. In this study, bio-flocculants were extracted from Hibiscus/Abelmoschus esculentus (okra) by using a water extraction method, and the extract yield and its performance in sludge dewatering were evaluated. Single factor experimental design was employed to obtain the optimum conditions for extraction temperature (25–90 °C), time (0.25–5 h), solvent loading (0.5–5 w/w) and agitation speed (0–225 rpm). Results showed that extraction yield was affected non-linearly by all experimental variables, whilst the sludge dewatering ability was only influenced by the temperature of the extraction process. The optimum extraction conditions were obtained at 70 °C, 2 h, solvent loading of 2.5 w/w and agitation at 200 rpm. Under the optimal conditions, the extract yield was 2.38%, which is comparable to the extraction of other polysaccharides (0.69–3.66%). The bio-flocculants displayed >98% removal of suspended solids and 68% water recovery during sludge dewatering, and were shown to be comparable with commercial polyacrylamide flocculants. This work shows that bio-flocculants could offer a feasible alternative to synthetic flocculants for water treatment and sludge dewatering applications, and can be extracted using only water as a solvent, minimising the environmental footprint of the extraction process

Ultra-high temperature ceramic composite

The work carried out under the XMat research programme (Materials Systems for Extreme Environments, EPSRC Programme Grant number EP/K008749/1-2) in the field of ultra-high temperature ceramic matrix composites has been focused on the design, development and manufacture of complex shapes and large panels for use under extreme conditions. The composites are made from 2.5D woven carbon fibre preforms impregnated with HfB2 powders and with a pyrolytic carbon, PyC, matrix created using chemical vapour infiltration, CVI. More recently, the knowledge acquired during the development of these Cf-HfB2-C composites has been focused on shortening the densification time by moving from conventional CVI to Radio Frequency-heated CVI; the work has also switched to Cf-ZrB2-C composites. In addition, the use of 3D carbon fibre preforms has begun to be explored to improve the mechanical properties and also the replacement of PyC matrix with ZrB2 to reducing the oxidation of the composites at ultra-high temperature

Current status of microwave-assisted extraction of pectin

There is an urgent need to develop new pectin extraction processes, as the established commercial extraction process damages the pectin (limiting the potential product applications) and is harmful to the environment. Microwave-Assisted Extraction could offer a sustainable route to pectin extraction from a wide range of food wastes and agricultural residues. We present the current state of the art in Microwave-Assisted Extraction of pectin, including the current understanding of the unique heat and mass transfer mechanisms at play during extraction. We review all of the recent literature, testing the commonly held view that microwave heating offers a general improvement in yield and dramatic reductions in processing time compared with conventional solvent extraction. In most of the literature reviewed, there was no evidence that this is the case. However, there is emerging evidence that Microwave-Assisted Extraction can provide processing advantages under some conditions, and that the feedstock dielectric properties and heating rate are important parameters. Preliminary attempts to scale this technology up have shown promise in terms of pectin yield, quality and Life Cycle Analysis compared with conventional extraction. The next steps should be to test more continuous processing concepts for a wider range of feedstocks, and develop more robust Life Cycle Analysis and technoeconomic models. This is the first review paper to focus on the Microwave-Assisted Extraction of pectin