The economic impact of demographic structure in OECD countries

We examine the impact of demographic structure, the proportion of the population in each age group, on growth, savings, investment, hours, interest rates and inflation using a panel VAR estimated from data for 20 OECD economies, mainly for the period 1970-2007. This flexible dynamic structure with interactions among the main macroeconomic variables allows us to estimate long-run effects of demographic structure on the individual countries. Our estimates confirm the importance of these effects

Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends

We analyse both empirically and theoretically the effects of changes in demographic structure on the macroeconomy, looking particular at their impact to medium-term trends. Our empirical exercise examines the impact of the proportion of the population in each age group, on growth, savings, investment, hours, interest rates and inflation using a panel VAR estimated from data for 20 OECD economies for the period 1970-2007. This flexible dynamic structure with interactions among the main variables allows us to estimate both the direct impact of demographic structure and their feedback effects. Our estimates confirm the importance of age structure, with young and old dependants having a negative impact on most macroeconomic variables while workers contribute positively. Our theoretical framework incorporates demographic heterogeneity and endogenous productivity, allowing us to study the medium-term interaction of demographic changes and savings, investment, and innovation decisions. Theoretical simulations incorporating the changes in demographic structure experienced by many OECD countries in the past decades replicate well our empirical findings. The current trend of population aging and reduced fertility, expected to continue in the next decades, is found to be a strong force in reducing output growth and real interest rates across OECD countries

Demographic structure and macroeconomic trends

We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long term trends of key macroeconomic variables using a Panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970-2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure, incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects. We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation and growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current trend of population ageing and low fertility is projected to reduce output growth, investment and real interest rates across OECD countries

Demografie bremst Wirtschaft

Wie beeinflusst die Demografie das Wirtschaftswachstum in den Industriestaaten? Während junge und alte Menschen einen negativen Einfluss haben, ist der Effekt bei der Gruppe im arbeitsfähigen Alter positiv. In einer Studie aus dem Jahr 2015 wurde ein theoretisches Modell entwickelt, um den Zusammenhang zwischen Demografie, Innovation und BIP-Wachstum anhand von empirischen Daten aufzuzeigen. Dabei zeigt sich: Die zunehmende Alterung und die tiefen Geburtenraten beeinflussen das Produktionswachstum und die Realzinsen negativ. An diesem Szenario dürfte sich in den nächsten Jahren wenig ändern

Medium-run implications of changing demographic structures for the macro-economy

While there may be an important, but transitory, cyclical component in the poor performance of the past decade, we will emphasise the secular forces: the impact of demographic structure and innovation. We draw on the empirical and theoretical work reported in Aksoy, Basso, Smith and Grasl (2015), ABSG, about the impact of changes in demographic structure on macroeconomic outcomes. This suggests that changes in age profile not only have significant implications for savings, investment, real interest rates and growth but also for innovation. The size of the effects seems plausible. For instance, if in 2015 the UK had the 1970 age structure, it would have added 0.68 percentage points to the long-run annual growth rate. The model suggests that the population ageing predicted for the next decades will tend to reduce output growth and real interest rates across OECD countries

Inequality and Procedural Justice in Social Dilemmas

This study investigates the influence of resource inequality and the fairness of the allocation procedure of unequal resources on cooperative behavior in social dilemmas. We propose a simple formal behavioral model that incorporates conflicting selfish and social motivations. This model allows us to predict how inequality influences cooperative behavior. Allocation of resources is manipulated by three treatments that vary in terms of procedural justice: allocating resources randomly, based on merit, and based on ascription. As predicted, procedural justice influences cooperation significantly. Moreover, gender is found to be an important factor interacting with the association between procedural justice and cooperative behavior.

Cooling and heating by adiabatic magnetization in the Ni50_{50}Mn34_{34}In16_{16} magnetic shape memory alloy

We report on measurements of the adiabatic temperature change in the inverse magnetocaloric Ni$_{50}$Mn$_{34}$In$_{16}$ alloy. It is shown that this alloy heats up with the application of a magnetic field around the Curie point due to the conventional magnetocaloric effect. In contrast, the inverse magnetocaloric effect associated with the martensitic transition results in the unusual decrease of temperature by adiabatic magnetization. We also provide magnetization and specific heat data which enable to compare the measured temperature changes to the values indirectly computed from thermodynamic relationships. Good agreement is obtained for the conventional effect at the second-order paramagnetic-ferromagnetic phase transition. However, at the first order structural transition the measured values at high fields are lower than the computed ones. Irreversible thermodynamics arguments are given to show that such a discrepancy is due to the irreversibility of the first-order martensitic transition.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in the Physical Review

Properties of 42 Solar-type Kepler Targets from the Asteroseismic Modeling Portal

Recently the number of main-sequence and subgiant stars exhibiting solar-like oscillations that are resolved into individual mode frequencies has increased dramatically. While only a few such data sets were available for detailed modeling just a decade ago, the Kepler mission has produced suitable observations for hundreds of new targets. This rapid expansion in observational capacity has been accompanied by a shift in analysis and modeling strategies to yield uniform sets of derived stellar properties more quickly and easily. We use previously published asteroseismic and spectroscopic data sets to provide a uniform analysis of 42 solar-type Kepler targets from the Asteroseismic Modeling Portal (AMP). We find that fitting the individual frequencies typically doubles the precision of the asteroseismic radius, mass and age compared to grid-based modeling of the global oscillation properties, and improves the precision of the radius and mass by about a factor of three over empirical scaling relations. We demonstrate the utility of the derived properties with several applications.Comment: 12 emulateapj pages, 9 figures, 1 online-only extended figure, 1 table, ApJS accepted (typo corrected in Eq.8

Trypanosoma brucei gambiense group 1 is distinguished by a unique amino acid substitution in the HpHb receptor implicated in human serum resistance

Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense (Tbr) and T. b. gambiense (Tbg), causative agents of Human African Trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness) in Africa, have evolved alternative mechanisms of resisting the activity of trypanosome lytic factors (TLFs), components of innate immunity in human serum that protect against infection by other African trypanosomes. In Tbr, lytic activity is suppressed by the Tbr-specific serum-resistance associated (SRA) protein. The mechanism in Tbg is less well understood but has been hypothesized to involve altered activity and expression of haptoglobin haemoglobin receptor (HpHbR). HpHbR has been shown to facilitate internalization of TLF-1 in T.b. brucei (Tbb), a member of the T. brucei species complex that is susceptible to human serum. By evaluating the genetic variability of HpHbR in a comprehensive geographical and taxonomic context, we show that a single substitution that replaces leucine with serine at position 210 is conserved in the most widespread form of Tbg (Tbg group 1) and not found in related taxa, which are either human serum susceptible (Tbb) or known to resist lysis via an alternative mechanism (Tbr and Tbg group 2). We hypothesize that this single substitution contributes to reduced uptake of TLF and thus may play a key role in conferring serum resistance to Tbg group 1. In contrast, similarity in HpHbR sequence among isolates of Tbg group 2 and Tbb/Tbr provides further evidence that human serum resistance in Tbg group 2 is likely independent of HpHbR functio