Fiscal forecast errors

The fact that the literature tends to find optimistic biases in national fiscal projections has led to a growing recognition in the academic and policy arenas of the need for independent forecasts in the fiscal domain, prepared by independent agencies, such as the European Commission in the case of Europe. Against this background the aim of this paper is to test: (i) whether the forecasting performance of governments is indeed worse than that of international organizations, and (ii) whether fiscal projections prepared by international organizations are free from political economy distortions. The answer to these both questions is no: our results, based on real-time data for 15 European countries over the period 1999- 2007, point to the rejection of the two hypotheses under scrutiny. We motivate the empirical analysis on the basis of a model in which an independent agency tries to minimize the distance to the government forecast. Starting from the assumption that the government’s information set includes private information not available to outside forecasters, we show how such a framework can help in understanding the observed empirical evidence.Las previsiones presupuestarias que preparan las autoridades nacionales tienden a presentar, en promedio, una visión optimista de la senda futura de las finanzas públicas. Este hecho ha sido probado en numerosos trabajos en particular, en el caso de Europa, en la última década. Por ello, se escuchan voces que piden que otras instituciones, independientes de los Gobiernos nacionales, asuman un papel más relevante en el proceso de planificación presupuestaria. En particular, en el caso de Europa, se menciona a la Comisión Europea. En este marco, el objetivo del presente documento es contrastar dos cuestiones muy concretas con respecto a las previsiones presupuestarias preparadas por las instituciones internacionales: i) ¿es la exactitud de dichas proyecciones mucho mejor que la de las preparadas por las autoridades nacionales?, y ii) ¿están libres dichas previsiones de distorsiones derivadas de factores tales como los ciclos electorales? Nuestros resultados, basados en una muestra de datos (previsiones) obtenidos de informes publicados en tiempo real para 15 países europeos en el período 1999-2007, señalan que la respuesta a las dos preguntas es negativa. Además de la evidencia empírica, en el documento se desarrolla un modelo teórico muy estilizado con el que se proporciona una posible explicación de los resultados empíricos. Dicha explicación se basa en la idea de que las autoridades nacionales disponen de más información que los analistas externos en todas las etapas de elaboración y seguimiento de los planes presupuestarios. Así pues, la institución independiente, al tratar de aproximarse lo más posible a la previsión del Gobierno (para reducir el déficit de acceso a la información), puede acabar incorporando en su propia previsión parte del sesgo político habitual en las proyecciones oficiales

The structure of sub-national public debt : liquidity vs credit risks

Analizamos los determinantes de la estructura de la deuda pública en el caso de España, desde una perspectiva subnacional. El cambio endógeno en la estructura de la deuda (entre instrumentos de corto plazo e instrumentos de largo plazo, y entre préstamos y valores) depende de medidas observables de riesgo crediticio y de liquidez. Para discriminar entre los determinantes potenciales, diseñamos modelos empíricos que incorporan variables financieras, económicas e institucionales. Estimamos los modelos mediante el Método Generalizado de Momentos y hacemos uso de una nueva base de datos trimestral sobre la estructura de la deuda pública regional española para el período I TR 1995-IV TR 2012. Nuestros resultados muestran que los determinantes más robustos de las decisiones sobre la gestión de deuda pública regional, refl ejada por la estructura de la deuda, son los riesgos de refinanciación y la expectativa del apoyo del Gobierno central (medido por la dinámica de las transferencias a las Comunidades Autónomas)We analyse the determinants of the structure of public debt in the case of Spain, from a sub-national perspective. The endogenous shift in the composition of debt (among shortvs long-term instruments, and loans vs securities) depends on observable measures of credit and liquidity risks. To discriminate among competing potential determinants, we set out empirical models that incorporate fi nancial, economic and institutional variables. We estimate the models by GMM and make use of a new quarterly dataset of Spanish regional governments’ debt structure for the period 1995Q1-2012Q4. Our results show that the most robust determinants of regional public fi nancial management decisions, as refl ected by the structure of debt, are rollover risks and the expectation of central government support (as measured by the dynamics of transfers

Fiscal targets. A guide to forecasters?

¿Debería tomar en consideración un analista en su proceso de toma de decisiones los anuncios del Gobierno sobre las políticas que implementará en el futuro? Para responder a esta pregunta, el analista podría combinar en un modelo la siguiente información: 1) la política/objetivo anunciada por el Gobierno y 2) la información disponible sobre las políticas que de hecho está implementando el Gobierno. Esta es la aproximación que tomamos en el presente trabajo. Formulamos y estimamos modelos empíricos para un conjunto de países de la UE (Alemania, Francia, Italia y España) y mostramos que los objetivos oficiales de gasto (consumo público) proporcionan información útil sobre la política de gasto (consumo público) efectivamente realizada a posteriori en situaciones en las cuales se instrumentan cambios significativos en las políticas (incluso cuando el cumplimiento de dichos planes en el pasado fue escaso) y cuando hay información limitada sobre el grado de implementación efectiva de los planes en curso (esto es, a principios del año presupuestario). Nuestros resultados complementan y cualifican una rama muy influyente de la literatura, que tiende a encontrar que los objetivos oficiales incorporan sesgos sistemáticos significativosShould rational agents take into consideration government policy announcements? A skilled agent (an econometrician) could set up a model to combine the following two pieces of information in order to anticipate the future course of fiscal policy in real-time: (i) the ex-ante path of policy as published/announced by the government(ii) incoming, observed data on the actual degree of implementation of ongoing plans. We formulate and estimate empirical models for a number of EU countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) to show that government (consumption) targets convey useful information about ex-post policy developments when policy changes significantly (even if past credibility is low) and when there is limited information about the implementation of plans (e.g. at the beginning of a fiscal year). In addition, our models are instrumental in unveiling the current course of policy in real time. Our approach complements a well-established branch of the literature that finds politically motivated biases in policy target

Physical Activity and Sport for Acquired Brain Injury (PASABI): A Non-Randomized Controlled Trial.

Background and objectives: Acquired brain injury (ABI) is the first cause of disability and physical activity (PA) is a key element in functional recovery and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) during the subacute and chronic phases. However, it is necessary to develop PA programs that respond to the heterogeneity and needs of this population. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of a PA program on the HRQoL in this population. Materials and Methods: With regard to recruitment, after baseline evaluations, participants were assigned to either the intervention group (IG, n = 38) or the control group (CG, n = 35). Functional capacity, mood, quality of life and depression were measured pre- and post-intervention. The IG underwent the “Physical Activity and Sport for Acquired Brain Injury” (PASABI) program, which was designed to improve HRQoL (1-h sessions, two to four sessions/week for 18 weeks). The CG underwent a standard rehabilitation program without PA. Results: Results for the IG indicated significant differences and large effect sizes for the physical and mental dimensions of quality of life, as well as mood and functional capacity, indicating an increase in HRQoL. No significant differences were found for the CG across any variables. Conclusions: The PASABI program was feasible and beneficial for improving physiological and functionality variables in the IG. The wide range of the activities of the PASABI program allow its application to a large number of people with ABI, promoting health through PA, especially in the chronic phasepost-print465 K

General government employment over the past decade

Artículo de revist

Developments in public investment during the crisis and the recovery

Artículo de revist

Spanish public finances through the financial crisis

El desempeño de la actividad de las Administraciones Públicas ha estado sometido a un elevado grado de tensión durante la crisis soberana reciente, a pesar del reducido nivel de deuda pública y de los superávits presupuestarios registrados en el período inmediatamente anterior a la crisis. El impacto de la recesión y una fase inicial de actuación contracíclica de la política fiscal exacerbaron las vulnerabilidades estructurales latentes de las finanzas públicas. El proceso de corrección de estos desequilibrios presupuestarios ha requerido la puesta en marcha de un conjunto de medias en los ámbitos de la imposición, el gasto público, el marco de reglas fiscales nacionales y la estructura del sector público. En este contexto, el presente documento discute la evolución de las finanzas públicas durante la crisis, prestando especial atención a las políticas de respuesta a la crisis financiera y a las tendencias macroeconómicas de medio plazo en las que se insertanSpain’s public finances have been under signifi cant stress during the crisis, despite precrisis fiscal surpluses and low levels of public debt. The impact of the crisis and an initial phase of counter-cyclical activism exacerbated the existing (structural) fiscal vulnerabilities. To correct the fiscal imbalances, a significant number of bold policy actions were taken, affecting taxation, public spending, national fi scal rules and the structure of the public sector. In this paper we discuss the evolution of public finances in Spain during the financial crisis, framing crisis-related fiscal policy measures within medium-term economic trends and focusing on policy responses to the financial crisis. We also touch upon the main policy challenges ahea

A multifactor sector model for the stock market: evidence from Spain

A factor model which relates the macroeconomy and the stock market evolution is presented. This relation is shown to be different among activity sectors. These differences are detected and quantified in an empirical application to the Madrid Stock Market. Forecasting experiments show that it is possible to improve the predictive ability of widely used models by means of the sensible use of the information provided by macroeconomic variables

A Highly Available Cluster of Web Servers with Increased Storage Capacity

Ponencias de las Decimoséptimas Jornadas de Paralelismo de la Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha celebradas el 18,19 y 20 de septiembre de 2006 en AlbaceteWeb servers scalability has been traditionally solved by improving software elements or increasing hardware resources of the server machine. Another approach has been the usage of distributed architectures. In such architectures, usually, file al- location strategy has been either full replication or full distribution. In previous works we have showed that partial replication offers a good balance between storage capacity and reliability. It offers much higher storage capacity while reliability may be kept at an equivalent level of that from fully replicated solutions. In this paper we present the architectural details of Web cluster solutions adapted to partial replication. We also show that partial replication does not imply a penalty in performance over classical fully replicated architectures. For evaluation purposes we have used a simulation model under the OMNeT++ framework and we use mean service time as a performance comparison metric.Publicad

Insights on the acting role of Martian atmosphere in the fragmentation pathways of organic and C-containing inorganic compounds using LIBS

In the present work, a preliminary fundamental study about the influence of background gas in Martian surface conditions (CO2, P=7 mbar) on the formation of emitting species in laser-induced plasmas of ablated C-containing compounds was performed. Results were compared with those obtained using ambient air as surrounding gas of irradiated samples. Energy thresholds were evaluated for excited atomic and molecular species of interest resulting in the plasma using a home-made LIBS system coupled to a pressure chamber for simulating Martian environment during the analysis of samples. Inorganic salts as calcium carbonate and magnesium carbonate besides pyrene as organic reference compound were analyzed in order to discern the origin of C-containing species coexisting in the plasma plume (C, C2 and CN, mainly). Results from acquired emission spectra shed light on the different carbon sources of emitting species as a function of energetic and pressure conditions.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech