Integrating proteomic, sociodemographic and clinical data to predict future depression diagnosis in subthreshold symptomatic individuals

Funder: Stanley Medical Research Institute (SMRI); doi: https://doi.org/10.13039/100007123Abstract: Individuals with subthreshold depression have an increased risk of developing major depressive disorder (MDD). The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to predict the probability of MDD onset in subthreshold individuals, based on their proteomic, sociodemographic and clinical data. To this end, we analysed 198 features (146 peptides representing 77 serum proteins (measured using MRM-MS), 22 sociodemographic factors and 30 clinical features) in 86 first-episode MDD patients (training set patient group), 37 subthreshold individuals who developed MDD within two or four years (extrapolation test set patient group), and 86 subthreshold individuals who did not develop MDD within four years (shared reference group). To ensure the development of a robust and reproducible model, we applied feature extraction and model averaging across a set of 100 models obtained from repeated application of group LASSO regression with ten-fold cross-validation on the training set. This resulted in a 12-feature prediction model consisting of six serum proteins (AACT, APOE, APOH, FETUA, HBA and PHLD), three sociodemographic factors (body mass index, childhood trauma and education level) and three depressive symptoms (sadness, fatigue and leaden paralysis). Importantly, the model demonstrated a fair performance in predicting future MDD diagnosis of subthreshold individuals in the extrapolation test set (AUC = 0.75), which involved going beyond the scope of the model. These findings suggest that it may be possible to detect disease indications in subthreshold individuals up to four years prior to diagnosis, which has important clinical implications regarding the identification and treatment of high-risk individuals

Glycosylated proteins preserved over millennia: N-glycan analysis of Tyrolean Iceman, Scythian Princess and Warrior.

An improved understanding of glycosylation will provide new insights into many biological processes. In the analysis of oligosaccharides from biological samples, a strict regime is typically followed to ensure sample integrity. However, the fate of glycans that have been exposed to environmental conditions over millennia has not yet been investigated. This is also true for understanding the evolution of the glycosylation machinery in humans as well as in any other biological systems. In this study, we examined the glycosylation of tissue samples derived from four mummies which have been naturally preserved: - the 5,300 year old "Iceman called Oetzi", found in the Tyrolean Alps; the 2,400 year old "Scythian warrior" and "Scythian Princess", found in the Altai Mountains; and a 4 year old apartment mummy, found in Vienna/Austria. The number of N-glycans that were identified varied both with the age and the preservation status of the mummies. More glycan structures were discovered in the contemporary sample, as expected, however it is significant that glycan still exists in the ancient tissue samples. This discovery clearly shows that glycans persist for thousands of years, and these samples provide a vital insight into ancient glycosylation, offering us a window into the distant past

Schizophrenia-risk and urban birth are associated with proteomic changes in neonatal dried blood spots.

In the present study, we tested whether there were proteomic differences in blood between schizophrenia patients after the initial onset of the disorder and controls; and whether those differences were also present at birth among neonates who later developed schizophrenia compared to those without a psychiatric admission. We used multiple reaction monitoring mass spectrometry to quantify 77 proteins (147 peptides) in serum samples from 60 first-onset drug-naive schizophrenia patients and 77 controls, and 96 proteins (152 peptides) in 892 newborn blood-spot (NBS) samples collected between 1975 and 1985. Both serum and NBS studies showed significant alterations in protein levels. Serum results revealed that Haptoglobin and Plasma protease C1 inhibitor were significantly upregulated in first-onset schizophrenia patients (corrected P < 0.05). Alpha-2-antiplasmin, Complement C4-A and Antithrombin-III were increased in first-onset schizophrenia patients (uncorrected P-values 0.041, 0.036 and 0.013, respectively) and also increased in newborn babies who later develop schizophrenia (P-values 0.0058, 0.013 and 0.044, respectively). We also tested whether protein abundance at birth was associated with exposure to an urban environment during pregnancy and found highly significant proteomic differences at birth between urban and rural environments. The prediction model for urbanicity had excellent predictive performance in both discovery (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.90) and validation (AUC = 0.89) sample sets. We hope that future biomarker studies based on stored NBS samples will identify prognostic disease indicators and targets for preventive measures for neurodevelopmental conditions, particularly those with onset during early childhood, such as autism spectrum disorder

Temporal proteomic profiling of postnatal human cortical development.

Healthy cortical development depends on precise regulation of transcription and translation. However, the dynamics of how proteins are expressed, function and interact across postnatal human cortical development remain poorly understood. We surveyed the proteomic landscape of 69 dorsolateral prefrontal cortex samples across seven stages of postnatal life and integrated these data with paired transcriptome data. We detected 911 proteins by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, and 83 were significantly associated with postnatal age (FDR < 5%). Network analysis identified three modules of co-regulated proteins correlated with age, including two modules with increasing expression involved in gliogenesis and NADH metabolism and one neurogenesis-related module with decreasing expression throughout development. Integration with paired transcriptome data revealed that these age-related protein modules overlapped with RNA modules and displayed collinear developmental trajectories. Importantly, RNA expression profiles that are dynamically regulated throughout cortical development display tighter correlations with their respective translated protein expression compared to those RNA profiles that are not. Moreover, the correspondence between RNA and protein expression significantly decreases as a function of cortical aging, especially for genes involved in myelination and cytoskeleton organization. Finally, we used this data resource to elucidate the functional impact of genetic risk loci for intellectual disability, converging on gliogenesis, myelination and ATP-metabolism modules in the proteome and transcriptome. We share all data in an interactive, searchable companion website. Collectively, our findings reveal dynamic aspects of protein regulation and provide new insights into brain development, maturation, and disease

Multimodel inference for biomarker development: an application to schizophrenia.

In the present study, to improve the predictive performance of a model and its reproducibility when applied to an independent data set, we investigated the use of multimodel inference to predict the probability of having a complex psychiatric disorder. We formed training and test sets using proteomic data (147 peptides from 77 proteins) from two-independent collections of first-onset drug-naive schizophrenia patients and controls. A set of prediction models was produced by applying lasso regression with repeated tenfold cross-validation to the training set. We used feature extraction and model averaging across the set of models to form two prediction models. The resulting models clearly demonstrated the utility of a multimodel based approach to make good (training set AUC > 0.80) and reproducible predictions (test set AUC > 0.80) for the probability of having schizophrenia. Moreover, we identified four proteins (five peptides) whose effect on the probability of having schizophrenia was modified by sex, one of which was a novel potential biomarker of schizophrenia, foetal haemoglobin. The evidence of effect modification suggests that future schizophrenia studies should be conducted in males and females separately. Future biomarker studies should consider adopting a multimodel approach and going beyond the main effects of features

Multimodel inference for biomarker development: an application to schizophrenia

In the present study, to improve the predictive performance of a model and its reproducibility when applied to an independent data set, we investigated the use of multimodel inference to predict the probability of having a complex psychiatric disorder. We formed training and test sets using proteomic data (147 peptides from 77 proteins) from twoindependent collections of first-onset drug-naive schizophrenia patients and controls. A set of prediction models was produced by applying lasso regression with repeated tenfold cross-validation to the training set. We used feature extraction and model averaging across the set of models to form two prediction models. The resulting models clearly demonstrated the utility of a multimodel based approach to make good (training set AUC > 0.80) and reproducible predictions (test set AUC > 0.80) for the probability of having schizophrenia. Moreover, we identified four proteins (five peptides) whose effect on the probability of having schizophrenia was modified by sex, one of which was a novel potential biomarker of schizophrenia, foetal haemoglobin. The evidence of effect modification suggests that future schizophrenia studies should be conducted in males and females separately. Future biomarker studies should consider adopting a multimodel approach and going beyond the main effects of features

Synaptic vesicle dynamic changes in a model of fragile X

__Background:__ Fragile X syndrome (FXS) is a single-gene disorder that is the most common heritable cause of intellectual disability and the most frequent monogenic cause of autism spectrum disorders (ASD). FXS is caused by an expansion of trinucleotide repeats in the promoter region of the fragile X mental retardation gene (Fmr1). This leads to a lack of fragile X mental retardation protein (FMRP), which regulates translation of a wide range of messenger RNAs (mRNAs). The extent of expression level alterations of synaptic proteins affected by FMRP loss and their consequences on synaptic dynamics in FXS has not been fully investigated. __Methods:__ Here, we used an Fmr1 knockout (KO) mouse model to investigate the molecular mechanisms underlying FXS by monitoring protein expression changes using shotgun label-free liquid-chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MSE) in brain tissue and synaptosome fractions. FXS-associated candidate proteins were validated using selected reaction monitoring (SRM) in synaptosome fractions for targeted protein quantification. Furthermore, functional alterations in synaptic release and dynamics were evaluated using live-cell imaging, and interpretation of synaptic dynamics differences was investigated using electron microscopy. __Results:__ Key findings relate to altered levels of proteins involved in GABA-signalling, especially in the cerebellum. Further exploration using microscopy studies found reduced synaptic vesicle unloading of hippocampal neurons and increased vesicle unloading in cerebellar neurons, which suggests a general decrease of synaptic transmission. __Conclusions:__ Our findings suggest that FMRP is a regulator of synaptic vesicle dynamics, which supports the role of FMRP in presynaptic functions. Taken together, these studies provide novel insights into the molecular changes associated with FXS

A machine learning algorithm to differentiate bipolar disorder from major depressive disorder using an online mental health questionnaire and blood biomarker data.

The vast personal and economic burden of mood disorders is largely caused by their under- and misdiagnosis, which is associated with ineffective treatment and worsening of outcomes. Here, we aimed to develop a diagnostic algorithm, based on an online questionnaire and blood biomarker data, to reduce the misdiagnosis of bipolar disorder (BD) as major depressive disorder (MDD). Individuals with depressive symptoms (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 score ≥5) aged 18-45 years were recruited online. After completing a purpose-built online mental health questionnaire, eligible participants provided dried blood spot samples for biomarker analysis and underwent the World Health Organization World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview via telephone, to establish their mental health diagnosis. Extreme Gradient Boosting and nested cross-validation were used to train and validate diagnostic models differentiating BD from MDD in participants who self-reported a current MDD diagnosis. Mean test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for separating participants with BD diagnosed as MDD (N = 126) from those with correct MDD diagnosis (N = 187) was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.86-0.97). Core predictors included elevated mood, grandiosity, talkativeness, recklessness and risky behaviour. Additional validation in participants with no previous mood disorder diagnosis showed AUROCs of 0.89 (0.86-0.91) and 0.90 (0.87-0.91) for separating newly diagnosed BD (N = 98) from MDD (N = 112) and subclinical low mood (N = 120), respectively. Validation in participants with a previous diagnosis of BD (N = 45) demonstrated sensitivity of 0.86 (0.57-0.96). The diagnostic algorithm accurately identified patients with BD in various clinical scenarios, and could help expedite accurate clinical diagnosis and treatment of BD

A machine learning algorithm to differentiate bipolar disorder from major depressive disorder using an online mental health questionnaire and blood biomarker data.

The vast personal and economic burden of mood disorders is largely caused by their under- and misdiagnosis, which is associated with ineffective treatment and worsening of outcomes. Here, we aimed to develop a diagnostic algorithm, based on an online questionnaire and blood biomarker data, to reduce the misdiagnosis of bipolar disorder (BD) as major depressive disorder (MDD). Individuals with depressive symptoms (Patient Health Questionnaire-9 score ≥5) aged 18-45 years were recruited online. After completing a purpose-built online mental health questionnaire, eligible participants provided dried blood spot samples for biomarker analysis and underwent the World Health Organization World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Interview via telephone, to establish their mental health diagnosis. Extreme Gradient Boosting and nested cross-validation were used to train and validate diagnostic models differentiating BD from MDD in participants who self-reported a current MDD diagnosis. Mean test area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for separating participants with BD diagnosed as MDD (N = 126) from those with correct MDD diagnosis (N = 187) was 0.92 (95% CI: 0.86-0.97). Core predictors included elevated mood, grandiosity, talkativeness, recklessness and risky behaviour. Additional validation in participants with no previous mood disorder diagnosis showed AUROCs of 0.89 (0.86-0.91) and 0.90 (0.87-0.91) for separating newly diagnosed BD (N = 98) from MDD (N = 112) and subclinical low mood (N = 120), respectively. Validation in participants with a previous diagnosis of BD (N = 45) demonstrated sensitivity of 0.86 (0.57-0.96). The diagnostic algorithm accurately identified patients with BD in various clinical scenarios, and could help expedite accurate clinical diagnosis and treatment of BD