Data-Driven Classification of Coronal Hole and Streamer Belt Solar Wind

We present two new solar wind origin classification schemes developed independently using unsupervised machine learning. The first scheme aims to classify solar wind into three types: coronal-hole wind, streamer-belt wind, and ‘unclassified’ which does not fit into either of the previous two categories. The second scheme independently derives three clusters from the data; the coronal-hole and streamer-belt winds, and a differing unclassified cluster. The classification schemes are created using non-evolving solar wind parameters, such as ion charge states and composition, measured during the three Ulysses fast latitude scans. The schemes are subsequently applied to the Ulysses and the Advanced Compositional Explorer (ACE) datasets. The first scheme is based on oxygen charge state ratio and proton specific entropy. The second uses these data, as well as the carbon charge state ratio, the alpha-to-proton ratio, the iron-to-oxygen ratio, and the mean iron charge state. Thus, the classification schemes are grounded in the properties of the solar source regions. Furthermore, the techniques used are selected specifically to reduce the introduction of subjective biases into the schemes. We demonstrate significant best case disparities (minimum ≈8%, maximum ≈22%) with the traditional fast and slow solar wind determined using speed thresholds. By comparing the results between the in- (ACE) and out-of-ecliptic (Ulysses) data, we find morphological differences in the structure of coronal-hole wind. Our results show how a data-driven approach to the classification of solar wind origins can yield results which differ from those obtained using other methods. As such, the results form an important part of the information required to validate how well current understanding of solar origins and the solar wind match with the data we have

Considering evidence: the approach taken by the Hazardous Substances Advisory Committee in the UK

The Hazardous Substances Advisory Committee (HSAC) provides expert advice to UK officials, Ministers and other relevant bodies on the protection of the environment, and human health via the environment, from potentially hazardous substances and articles. Hazardous substances are often the subject of controversy, on which individuals, and different groups in society, hold divergent views. This paper details the approach taken by HSAC when considering the evidence to provide advice on hazardous substances. Firstly HSAC reviews the range of evidence and determines its quality considering: transparency of aims, the methodology and results, completeness, independent review and accessibility. HSAC does not follow one explicit methodology as the wide range of hazardous substances we consider means they need to be addressed on a case by case basis. Most notably HSAC considers the evidence in the wider context, being aware of factors that influence individuals in their decision making when receiving a HSAC opinion e.g. trust in the source of the evidence, defensibility, conformity to a ‘world view’ and framing. HSACs also reflects on its own perspectives with the aim of addressing bias by the diversity of its membership. The Committee’s intention, in adopting this rounded approach, is to reach opinions that are robust, relevant and defensible

Provision of Outdoor Nature-Based Activity for Older People with Cognitive Impairment: A Scoping Review from the ENLIVEN Project

© 2023 Rachel Collins et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.The health and well-being benefits of outdoor nature-based activity are increasingly recognised, but older people with cognitive impairment face significant barriers to access. The ENLIVEN project aims to promote access by gathering evidence and coproducing guidance for activity providers. As part of this project, we conducted a scoping review to characterise the types of outdoor nature-based activity for older people with dementia and other forms of cognitive impairment for which research evidence is available and the range of outcomes is examined. The protocol is available online. We systematically searched relevant databases from 1st January, 2009, to 20th October, 2022, and screened articles against the following criteria: participants were older people aged 65 and above with cognitive impairment arising from dementia or another health condition. The study described the formal provision of outdoor nature-based activity away from the person’s usual place of residence, and at least one outcome of participation in the activity was evaluated. Twenty-eight articles met inclusion criteria, all focused on people living with dementia. In most cases, participants were attending day care or living in residential care, and sample sizes ranged from 4 to 136. Activities fell into three groups: green day care (fifteen articles), equine-assisted interventions (seven articles), and community nature-based activities (six articles). Outcome domains explored were connection with nature, activity engagement, impacts on clinical symptoms, functional ability, physical, psychological, and social health, and quality of life. Outdoor nature-based activity can be offered as an opportunity for meaningful occupation to enrich daily life, as a framework for day care provision, or as an intervention to address clinical needs. The evidence base for green day care is relatively established, but the potential for addressing specific clinical needs remains to be explored. The paucity of evidence regarding community provision, especially for those not attending formal care settings, suggests the need for effective knowledge exchange to stimulate initiatives in this area.Peer reviewe

Capturing uncertainty in magnetospheric ultra-low frequency wave models

We develop and test an empirical model predicting ground-based observations of ultra-low frequency (ULF, 1-20 mHz) wave power across a range of frequencies, latitudes and magnetic local time sectors. This is parameterized by instantaneous solar wind speed $v_{sw}$, variance in proton number density $var(Np)$ and interplanetary southward magnetic field $B_z$. A probabilistic model of ULF wave power will allow us to address uncertainty in radial diffusion coefficients and therefore improve diffusion modeling of radial transport in Earth's outer radiation belt. Our model can be used in two ways to reproduce wave power; by sampling from conditional probability distribution functions or by using the mean (expectation) values. We derive a method for testing the quality of the parameterization and test the ability of the model to reproduce ULF wave power time series. Sampling is a better method for reproducing power over an extended time period as it retains the same overall distribution while mean values are better for predicting the power in a time series. The model predicts each hour in a time series better than the assumption that power persists from the preceding hour. Finally, we review other sources of diffusion coefficient uncertainty. Although this wave model is designed principally for the goal of improved radial diffusion coefficients to include in outer radiation belt diffusion based modeling, we anticipate that our model can also be used to investigate the occurrence of ULF waves throughout the magnetosphere and hence the physics of ULF wave generation and propagation

On the origins and timescales of geoeffective IMF

Southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) in the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric (GSM) reference frame is the key element that controls the level of space-weather disturbance in Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere. We discuss the relation of this geoeffective IMF component to the IMF in the Geocentric Solar Ecliptic (GSE) frame and, using the almost continuous interplanetary data for 1996-2015 (inclusive), we show that large geomagnetic storms are always associated with strong southward, out-of-ecliptic field in the GSE frame: dipole tilt effects, that cause the difference between the southward field in the GSM and GSE frames, generally make only a minor contribution to these strongest storms. The time-of-day/time-of-year response patterns of geomagnetic indices and the optimum solar wind coupling function are both influenced by the timescale of the index response. We also study the occurrence spectrum of large out-of-ecliptic field and show that for one-hour averages it is, surprisingly, almost identical in ICMEs (Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections), around CIRs/SIRs (Corotating and Stream Interaction Regions) and in the “quiet” solar wind (which is shown to be consistent with the effect of weak SIRs). However, differences emerge when the timescale over which the field remains southward is considered: for longer averaging timescales the spectrum is broader inside ICMEs, showing that these events generate longer intervals of strongly southward average IMF and consequently stronger geomagnetic storms. The behavior of out-of-ecliptic field with timescale is shown to be very similar to that of deviations from the predicted Parker spiral orientation, suggesting the two share common origins

The development of a space climatology: 3. Models of the evolution of distributions of space weather variables with timescale

We study how the probability distribution functions of power input to the magnetosphere Pα and of the geomagnetic ap and Dst indices vary with averaging timescale, , between 3 hours and 1 year. From this we develop and present algorithms to empirically model the distributions for a given and a given annual mean value. We show that lognormal distributions work well for ap, but because of the spread of Dst for low activity conditions, the optimum formulation for Dst leads to distributions better described by something like the Weibull formulation. Annual means can be estimated using telescope observations of sunspots and modelling, and so this allows the distributions to be estimated at any given between 3 hour and 1 year for any of the past 400 years, which is another important step towards a useful space weather climatology. The algorithms apply to the core of the distributions and can be used to predict the occurrence rate of “large” events (in the top 5% of activity levels): they may contain some, albeit limited, information relevant to characterizing the much rarer “superstorm” events with extreme value statistics. The algorithm for the Dst index is the more complex one because, unlike ap, Dst can take on either sign and future improvements to it are suggested

The development of a space climatology: 1. solar-wind magnetosphere coupling as a function of timescale and the effect of data gaps

Different terrestrial space weather indicators (such as geomagnetic indices, transpolar voltage, and ring current particle content) depend on different “coupling functions” (combinations of near-Earth solar wind parameters) and previous studies also reported a dependence on the averaging timescale, {\tau}. We study the relationships of the am and SME geomagnetic indices to the power input into the magnetosphere P_{\alpha}, estimated using the optimum coupling exponent {\alpha} for a range of {\tau} between 1 min and 1 year. The effect of missing data is investigated by introducing synthetic gaps into near-continuous data and the best method for dealing with them when deriving the coupling function, is formally defined. Using P_{\alpha}, we show that gaps in data recorded before 1995 have introduced considerable errors into coupling functions. From the near-continuous solar wind data for 1996-2016, we find {\alpha} = 0.44 plus/minus 0.02 and no significant evidence that {\alpha} depends on {\tau}, yielding P_{\alpha} = B^0.88 Vsw^1.90 (mswNsw)^0.23 sin4({\theta}/2), where B is the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF), Nsw the solar wind number density, msw its mean ion mass, Vsw its velocity and {\theta} is the IMF clock angle in the Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric reference frame. Values of P_{\alpha} that are accurate to within plus/minus 5% for 1996-2016 have an availability of 83.8% and the correlation between P_{\alpha} and am for these data is shown to be 0.990 (between 0.972 and 0.997 at the 2{\sigma} uncertainty level), 0.897 plus/minus 0.004, and 0.790 plus/minus 0.03, for {\tau} of 1 year, 1 day and 3 hours, respectively, and that between P_{alpha} and SME at {\tau} of 1 min. is 0.7046 plus/minus 0.0004

Semi-annual, annual and Universal Time variations in the magnetosphere and in geomagnetic activity: 3. Modelling

This is the third in a series of papers that investigate the semi-annual, annual and Universal Time variations in the magnetosphere. In this paper, we use the Lin et al. (2010) empirical model of magnetopause locations, along with the assumption of pressure equilibrium and the Newtonian approximation of magnetosheath pressure. We show that the equinoctial pattern arises in both the cross-tail current at the tail hinge point and in the total energy stored in the tail. The model allows us to study the effects of both dipole tilt and hemispheric asymmetries. As a test of the necessary assumptions made to enable this analysis, we also study simulations by the BATSRUS global MHD magnetosphere model. These also show that the reconnection voltage in the tail is greatest when the dipole tilt is small but this only applies at low solar wind dynamic pressure pSW and does not, on its own, explain why the equinoctial effect increases in amplitude with increased pSW, as demonstrated by Paper 2. Instead, the effect is consistent with the dipole tilt effect on the energy stored in the tail around the reconnection X line. A key factor is that a smaller/larger fraction of the open polar cap flux threads the tail lobe in the hemisphere that is pointed toward/away from the Sun. The analysis using the empirical model uses approximations and so is not definitive; however, because the magnetopause locations in the two hemispheres were fitted separately in generating the model, it gives a unique insight into the effect of the very different offsets of the magnetic pole from the rotational pole in the two hemispheres. It is therefore significant that our analysis using the empirical model does predict a UT variation that is highly consistent with that found in both transpolar voltage data and in geomagnetic activity

Semi-annual, annual and Universal Time variations in the magnetosphere and in geomagnetic activity: 2. Response to solar wind power input and relationships with solar wind dynamic pressure and magnetospheric flux transport

This is the second in a series of papers that investigate the semi-annual, annual and Universal Time (UT) variations in the magnetosphere. We present a varied collection of empirical results that can be used to constrain theories and modelling of these variations. An initial study of two years’ data on transpolar voltage shows that there is a semi-annual variation in magnetospheric flux circulation; however, it is not as large in amplitude as that in geomagnetic activity, consistent with the latter showing a non-linear (quadratic) variation with transpolar voltage. We find that during the persistent minimum of the UT variation in geomagnetic activity, between about 2 and 10 UT, there is also a persistent decrease in observed transpolar voltage, which may be, in part, caused by a decrease in reconnection voltage in the nightside cross-tail current sheet. We study the response of geomagnetic activity to estimated power input into the magnetosphere using interplanetary data from 1995 onwards, an interval for which the data are relatively free of data gaps. We find no consistent variation in the response delay with time-of-year F and, using the optimum lag, we show that the patterns of variation in F-year spectrograms are very similar for geomagnetic activity and power input into the magnetosphere, both for average values and for the occurrence of large events. The Russell-McPherron (R-M) mechanism is shown to be the central driver of this behaviour. However, the (R-M) effect on power input into the magnetosphere is small and there is a non-linear amplification of the semi-annual variation in the geomagnetic response, such that a very small asymmetry in power input into the magnetosphere P_ between the “favourable” and “unfavourable” polarities of the IMF BY component generates a greatly amplified geomagnetic response. The analysis strongly indicates that this amplification is associated with solar wind dynamic pressure and its role in squeezing the near-Earth tail and so modulating the storage and release of energy extracted from the solar wind. In this paper, we show that the equinoctial pattern is found in the residuals of fits of P_ to the am index and that the amplitude of these equinoctial patterns in the am fit residuals increases linearly with solar wind dynamic pressure. Similarly, the UT variation in am is also found in these fit residuals and also increases in amplitude with solar wind dynamic pressure