Novel river eco-hydrological systems projected for Europe

Future flows in rivers throughout Europe were computed for different combinations of climate models and socio-economic scenarios for a baseline (1961-1990) and for the future (2050s). Sets of indicators describing all ecologically-relevant facets of river flow regime were derived. Eco-hydrological regime types were defined using classification techniques applied to these indicators. Projected future flow alterations (2050s) for major European rivers were mapped in terms of eco-hydrological types and compared with maps for the baseline situation. It was found that for many river reaches their regime would remain broadly similar (in the same class), for other reaches the regime would alter to be more similar to another class. For some reaches the eco-hydrological regime would change to a novel form not currently seen in Europe, with the potential to create new river ecosystems

Projected novel eco-hydrological river types for Europe

Climate change and human use of water abstracted from rivers and groundwater are projected to alter river flow regimes worldwide in coming decades. Consequently, community structure in many rivers is expected to change because river flow is fundamental in determining conditions required by organisms, and processes on which they depend. Future flows in pan-European rivers were computed for baseline conditions (period 1961–1990) and for different combinations of climate and socio-economic scenarios (2040–2069). For each scenario a set of indicators was produced describing flow regime aspects that are most important in determining river ecosystem character. Classification techniques were applied to each set to define eco-hydrological river types. Spatial patterns of baseline and future types were mapped. Depending on scenario, about 30–50% of the river network length remained of the same type, whilst c. 40–50% transformed to an existing type; a third group of rivers (c. 10–20% of network length) formed new types, not present under baseline conditions, with potential to create novel river ecosystems

Online Self-Healing Control Loop to Prevent and Mitigate Faults in Scientific Workflows

Scientific workflows have become mainstream for conducting large-scale scientific research. As a result, many workflow applications and Workflow Management Systems (WMSs) have been developed as part of the cyberinfrastructure to allow scientists to execute their applications seamlessly on a range of distributed platforms. In spite of many success stories, a key challenge for running workflow in distributed systems is failure prediction, detection, and recovery. In this paper, we present a novel online self-healing framework, where failures are predicted before they happen, and are mitigated when possible. The proposed approach is to use control theory developed as part of autonomic computing, and in particular apply the proportional-integral-derivative controller (PID controller) control loop mechanism, which is widely used in industrial control systems, to mitigate faults by adjusting the inputs of the mechanism. The PID controller aims at detecting the possibility of a fault far enough in advance so that an action can be performed to prevent it from happening. To demonstrate the feasibility of the approach, we tackle two common execution faults of the Big Data era—data footprint and memory usage. We define, implement, and evaluate PID controllers to autonomously manage data and memory usage of a bioinformatics workflow that consumes/produces over 4.4TB of data, and requires over 24TB of memory to run all tasks concurrently. Experimental results indicate that workflow executions may significantly benefit from PID controllers, in particular under online and unknown conditions. Simulation results show that nearly-optimal executions (slowdown of 1.01) can be attained when using our proposed control loop, and faults are detected and mitigated far in advance

Using simple PID-inspired controllers for online resilient resource management of distributed scientific workflows

Scientific workflows have become mainstream for conducting large-scale scientific research. As a result, many workflow applications and Workflow Management Systems (WMSs) have been developed as part of the cyberinfrastructure to allow scientists to execute their applications seamlessly on a range of distributed platforms. Although the scientific community has addressed this challenge from both theoretical and practical approaches, failure prediction, detection, and recovery still raise many research questions. In this paper, we propose an approach inspired by the control theory developed as part of autonomic computing to predict failures before they happen, and mitigated them when possible. The proposed approach is inspired on the proportional–integral–derivative controller (PID controller) control loop mechanism, which is widely used in industrial control systems, where the controller will react to adjust its output to mitigate faults. PID controllers aim to detect the possibility of a non-steady state far enough in advance so that an action can be performed to prevent it from happening. To demonstrate the feasibility of the approach, we tackle two common execution faults of large scale data-intensive workflows—data storage overload and memory overflow. We developed a simulator, which implements and evaluates simple standalone PID-inspired controllers to autonomously manage data and memory usage of a data-intensive bioinformatics workflow that consumes/produces over 4.4 TB of data, and requires over 24 TB of memory to run all tasks concurrently. Experimental results obtained via simulation indicate that workflow executions may significantly benefit from the controller-inspired approach, in particular under online and unknown conditions. Simulation results show that nearly-optimal executions (slowdown of 1.01) can be attained when using our proposed method, and faults are detected and mitigated far in advance of their occurrence

Drought forecasting isn\u27t just about water- to get smart we need health and financial data too

The Millennium Drought taught Australians many lessons about living under extremely dry conditions – not just about how to conserve water, but also about human suffering. In a drought, farmers find it more difficult to make an income, leading to mental health problems and raising the rate of male suicides. In the city, the impact is felt through water restrictions and more expensive infrastructure. With very dry conditions returning to Tasmania, central Queensland and western Victoria, are we better prepared for the next big drought? This is an issue not just for Australia, but across the world, from California, to England, to the Levant region in the eastern Mediterranean, which from 1998-2012 experienced its worst drought in 900 years

PTEN protein phosphatase activity is not required for tumour suppression in the mouse prostate

Loss PTEN function is one of the most common events driving aggressive prostate cancers and biochemically, PTEN is a lipid phosphatase which opposes the activation of the oncogenic PI3K-AKT signalling network. However, PTEN also has additional potential mechanisms of action, including protein phosphatase activity. Using a mutant enzyme, PTEN Y138L, which selectively lacks protein phosphatase activity, we characterised genetically modified mice lacking either the full function of PTEN in the prostate gland or only lacking protein phosphatase activity. The phenotypes of mice carrying a single allele of either wild-type Pten or Pten(Y138L) in the prostate were similar, with common prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PIN) and similar gene expression profiles. However, the latter group, lacking PTEN protein phosphatase activity additionally showed lymphocyte infiltration around PIN and an increased immune cell gene expression signature. Prostate adenocarcinoma, elevated proliferation and AKT activation were only frequently observed when PTEN was fully deleted. We also identify a common gene expression signature of PTEN loss conserved in other studies (including Nkx3.1, Tnf and Cd44). We provide further insight into tumour development in the prostate driven by loss of PTEN function and show that PTEN protein phosphatase activity is not required for tumour suppression

Novel methods for estimating the instantaneous and overall COVID-19 case fatality risk among care home residents in England

The COVID-19 pandemic has had high mortality rates in the elderly and frail worldwide, particularly in care homes. This is driven by the difficulty of isolating care homes from the wider community, the large population sizes within care facilities (relative to typical households), and the age/frailty of the residents. To quantify the mortality risk posed by disease, the case fatality risk (CFR) is an important tool. This quantifies the proportion of cases that result in death. Throughout the pandemic, CFR amongst care home residents in England has been monitored closely. To estimate CFR, we apply both novel and existing methods to data on deaths in care homes, collected by Public Health England and the Care Quality Commission. We compare these different methods, evaluating their relative strengths and weaknesses. Using these methods, we estimate temporal trends in the instantaneous CFR (at both daily and weekly resolutions) and the overall CFR across the whole of England, and dis-aggregated at regional level. We also investigate how the CFR varies based on age and on the type of care required, dis-aggregating by whether care homes include nursing staff and by age of residents. This work has contributed to the summary of measures used for monitoring the UK epidemic

The first poverty line? Davies and Eden’s investigation of rural poverty in late 18th-century England

Two important and well-known surveys of the household budgets of the English rural labouring poor were produced by David Davies and Frederick Eden in the 1790s. We revisit these from the point of view of their original rationale — an investigation of the characteristics and extent of poverty in the countryside. We argue that Davies' standard of ‘tolerable comfort’ can lay claim to being the first poverty line based upon the application of a minimum consumption standard to household income. We find that the majority of households fall below this standard, although those in the south of England were worst off, that family size was the largest coefficient and poverty reduced as the age of the first child increased. The incidence of poverty was not highly correlated with the absence of a woman wage earner

Using Simple PID Controllers to Prevent and Mitigate Faults in Scientific Workflows

Scientific workflows have become mainstream for conductinglarge-scale scientific research. As a result, many workflowapplications and Workflow Management Systems (WMSs)have been developed as part of the cyberinfrastructure toallow scientists to execute their applications seamlessly ona range of distributed platforms. In spite of many successstories, a key challenge for running workflows in distributedsystems is failure prediction, detection, and recovery. Inthis paper, we propose an approach to use control theorydeveloped as part of autonomic computing to predict failures before they happen, and mitigated them when possible.The proposed approach applying the proportional-integralderivative controller (PID controller) control loop mechanism, which is widely used in industrial control systems, tomitigate faults by adjusting the inputs of the controller. ThePID controller aims at detecting the possibility of a fault farenough in advance so that an action can be performed toprevent it from happening. To demonstrate the feasibility ofthe approach, we tackle two common execution faults of theBig Data era—data storage overload and memory overflow.We define, implement, and evaluate simple PID controllersto autonomously manage data and memory usage of a bioinformatics workflow that consumes/produces over 4.4TB ofdata, and requires over 24TB of memory to run all tasksconcurrently. Experimental results indicate that workflowexecutions may significantly benefit from PID controllers,in particular under online and unknown conditions. Simulation results show that nearly-optimal executions (slowdownof 1.01) can be attained when using our proposed method,and faults are detected and mitigated far in advance of theiroccurence