Nordic dietary surveys. Study designs, methods, results and use in food-based risk assessments

National dietary surveys have been completed in all five Nordic countries for purposes of nutritional assessment. The NORDIRA project started in 2009 with objectives of sharing experiences within collection of food consumption data and applications of it in food-based risk assessment. The NORDIRA-group consisted of experts working within dietary surveys as well within risk assessment. The project collected results and methodological aspects of national dietary surveys, the presentations of food consumption figures and data calculation processes of risk assessment. This TemaNord report is a summary of the presentations and experiences shared during the three year period of the NORDIRA project. The group emphasizes a flexible food aggregation system in reporting food consumption to enable different kind of matching of data from food consumption and occurence of chemical substances

Refining predictions of metacommunity dynamics by modeling species non-independence

Abstract Predicting the dynamics of biotic communities is difficult because species? environmental responses are not independent, but covary due to shared or contrasting ecological strategies and the influence of species interactions. We used latent-variable joint species distribution models to analyse paired historical and contemporary inventories of 585 vascular plant species on 471 islands in the south-west Finnish archipelago. Larger, more heterogeneous islands were characterized by higher colonisation rates and lower extinction rates. Ecological and taxonomical species groups explained small but detectable proportions of variance in species? environmental responses. To assess the potential influence of species interactions on community dynamics, we estimated species associations as species-to-species residual correlations for historical occurrences, for colonisations, and for extinctions. Historical species associations could to some extent predict joint colonisation patterns, but the overall estimated influence of species associations on community dynamics was weak. These results illustrate the benefits of considering metacommunity dynamics within a joint framework, but also suggest that any influence of species interactions on community dynamics may be hard to detect from observational data.Peer reviewe

Revisiting the minimum set cover, the maximal coverage problems and a maximum benefit area selection problem to make climate‐change‐concerned conservation plans effective

1. Informed decisions for the selection of protected areas (PAs) are grounded in two general problems in Operations Research: the minimum set covering problem (minCost), where a set of ecological constraints are established as conservation targets and the minimum cost PAs are found, and the maximal coverage problem (maxCoverage) where the constraint is uniquely economic (i.e., a fixed budget) and the goal is to maximize the number of species having conservation targets adequately covered. 2. We adjust minCost and maxCoverage to accommodate the dynamic effects of climate change on species’ ranges. The selection of sites is replaced by the selection of time-ordered sequences of sites (climate change corridors), and an estimate of the persistence of each species in corridors is calculated according to the expected suitability of each site in the respective time period and the capacity of species to disperse between consecutive sites along corridors. In these problems, conservation targets are expressed as desired (and attainable) species persistence levels. We also introduce a novel problem (minShortfall) that combines minCost and maxCoverage. Unlike these two problems, minShortfall allows persistence targets to be missed and minimizes the sum of those gaps (i.e., target shortfalls), subject to a limited budget. 3. We illustrate the three problems with a case study using climatic suitability estimates for ten mammal species in the Iberian Peninsula under a climate change scenario until 2080. We compare solutions of the three problems with respect to species persistence and PA costs, under distinct settings of persistence targets, number of target-fulfilled species, and budgets. The solutions from different problems differed with regard to the areas to prioritize, their timings and the species whose persistence targets were fulfilled. This analysis also allowed identifying groups of species sharing corridors in optimal solutions, thus allowing important financial savings in site protection. 4. We suggest that enhancing species persistence is an adequate approach to cope with habitat shifts due to climate change. We trust the three problems discussed can provide complementary and valuable support for planners to anticipate decisions in order that the negative effects of climate change on species’ persistence are minimized

Atlantic frugivory: a plant–frugivore interaction data set for the Atlantic Forest

Non peer reviewe

The value of selected in vitro and in silico methods to predict acute oral toxicity in a regulatory context: results from the European Project ACuteTox

ACuteTox is a project within the 6th European Framework Programme which had as one of its goals to develop, optimise and prevalidate a non-animal testing strategy for predicting human acute oral toxicity. In its last 6months, a challenging exercise was conducted to assess the predictive capacity of the developed testing strategies and final identification of the most promising ones. Thirty-two chemicals were tested blind in the battery of in vitro and in silico methods selected during the first phase of the project. This paper describes the classification approaches studied: single step procedures and two step tiered testing strategies. In summary, four in vitro testing strategies were proposed as best performing in terms of predictive capacity with respect to the European acute oral toxicity classification. In addition, a heuristic testing strategy is suggested that combines the prediction results gained from the neutral red uptake assay performed in 3T3 cells, with information on neurotoxicity alerts identified by the primary rat brain aggregates test method. Octanol-water partition coefficients and in silico prediction of intestinal absorption and blood-brain barrier passage are also considered. This approach allows to reduce the number of chemicals wrongly predicted as not classified (LD(50)>2000mg/kg b.w.).Peer Reviewe

Friend or foe? The current epidemiologic evidence on selenium and human cancer risk.

Scientific opinion on the relationship between selenium and the risk of cancer has undergone radical change over the years, with selenium first viewed as a possible carcinogen in the 1940s then as a possible cancer preventive agent in the 1960s-2000s. More recently, randomized controlled trials have found no effect on cancer risk but suggest possible low-dose dermatologic and endocrine toxicity, and animal studies indicate both carcinogenic and cancer-preventive effects. A growing body of evidence from human and laboratory studies indicates dramatically different biological effects of the various inorganic and organic chemical forms of selenium, which may explain apparent inconsistencies across studies. These chemical form-specific effects also have important implications for exposure and health risk assessment. Overall, available epidemiologic evidence suggests no cancer preventive effect of increased selenium intake in healthy individuals and possible increased risk of other diseases and disorders

Moment Closure - A Brief Review

Moment closure methods appear in myriad scientific disciplines in the modelling of complex systems. The goal is to achieve a closed form of a large, usually even infinite, set of coupled differential (or difference) equations. Each equation describes the evolution of one "moment", a suitable coarse-grained quantity computable from the full state space. If the system is too large for analytical and/or numerical methods, then one aims to reduce it by finding a moment closure relation expressing "higher-order moments" in terms of "lower-order moments". In this brief review, we focus on highlighting how moment closure methods occur in different contexts. We also conjecture via a geometric explanation why it has been difficult to rigorously justify many moment closure approximations although they work very well in practice.Comment: short survey paper (max 20 pages) for a broad audience in mathematics, physics, chemistry and quantitative biolog

Novel community data in ecology-properties and prospects

New technologies for monitoring biodiversity such as environmental (e)DNA, passive acoustic monitoring, and optical sensors promise to generate automated spatiotemporal community observations at unprecedented scales and resolutions. Here, we introduce ‘novel community data’ as an umbrella term for these data. We review the emerging field around novel community data, focusing on new ecological questions that could be addressed; the analytical tools available or needed to make best use of these data; and the potential implications of these developments for policy and conservation. We conclude that novel community data offer many opportunities to advance our understanding of fundamental ecological processes, including community assembly, biotic interactions, micro- and macroevolution, and overall ecosystem functioning

Concept drift over geological times : predictive modeling baselines for analyzing the mammalian fossil record

Fossils are the remains organisms from earlier geological periods preserved in sedimentary rock. The global fossil record documents and characterizes the evidence about organisms that existed at different times and places during the Earth's history. One of the major directions in computational analysis of such data is to reconstruct environmental conditions and track climate changes over millions of years. Distribution of fossil animals in space and time make informative features for such modeling, yet concept drift presents one of the main computational challenges. As species continuously go extinct and new species originate, animal communities today are different from the communities of the past, and the communities at different times in the past are different from each other. The fossil record is continuously increasing as new fossils and localities are being discovered, but it is not possible to observe or measure their environmental contexts directly, because the time is gone. Labeled data linking organisms to climate is available only for the present day, where climatic conditions can be measured. The approach is to train models on the present day and use them to predict climatic conditions over the past. But since species representation is continuously changing, transfer learning approaches are needed to make models applicable and climate estimates to be comparable across geological times. Here we discuss predictive modeling settings for such paleoclimate reconstruction from the fossil record. We compare and experimentally analyze three baseline approaches for predictive paleoclimate reconstruction: (1) averaging over habitats of species, (2) using presence-absence of species as features, and (3) using functional characteristics of species communities as features. Our experiments on the present day African data and a case study on the fossil data from the Turkana Basin over the last 7 million of years suggest that presence-absence approaches are the most accurate over short time horizons, while species community approaches, also known as ecometrics, are the most informative over longer time horizons when, due to ongoing evolution, taxonomic relations between the present day and fossil species become more and more uncertain.Peer reviewe