Seasonal rainfall forecasting using the multi - model ensemble technique over the greater Horn of Africa

This study evaluated the skill of forecasting seasonal rainfall over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) using Ensemble Model Technique from a cluster of four General Circulation Climate Models (GCMs) from Global Producing Centers (GPCs). The spatial distribution of rainfall anomalies of the observed models output during extreme events showed that the ensemble model was able to simulate El-Niño (1997) and La-Niña (2000) years. The ensemble models did not show good skill in capturing the magnitude of the extreme events. The skill of the ensemble model was higher than that for the member models in terms of its ability to capture the rainfall peaks during the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. The analysis for the correlation coefficients showed higher values for the ensemble model output than for the individual models over the Equatorial region with the stations in the northern and southern sectors of the GHA comparatively giving low skill. The ensemble modeling technique significantly improved the skill of forecasting, including the sectors where individual models had low skill. In general, the skill of the models was relatively higher during the onset of the ENSO event and became low towards the decaying phase of the ENSO period. Generally, the study has shown that the ensemble seasonal forecasting significantly adds skill to the forecasts especially for October-December (OND) rainy seasons. From the study, ensemble seasonal forecasting significantly adds skill to the forecasts over the region. Blending dynamical ensemble forecasts with statistical forecast currently being produced during Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) would add value to seasonal forecasts. This significantly reduces the impacts and damages associated with climate extremes over the region

DNA barcoding augments conventional methods for identification of medicinal plant species traded at Tanzanian markets

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Advances, gaps and way forward in provision of climate services over the Greater Horn of Africa

The Greater Horn of Africa is prone to extreme climatic conditions, thus, making climate services increasingly important in supporting decision-making processes across a range of climate sensitive sectors. This study aims to provide a comprehensive review of the recent advances, gaps and challenges in the provision of climate services over the region, for each of the components of the Global Framework for Climate Services. The study explores various milestones that have been achieved toward climate service delivery. The achievements include improvement of station network coverage, and enhancing the capacity of member states to utilize various tools in data analysis and generate routine climate products. The advancement in science, and availability of High-Performance Computing has made it possible for forecast information to be provided from nowcasting to seasonal timescales. Moreover, operationalizing of the objective forecasting method for monthly and seasonal forecasts has made it possible to translate tercile forecasts for applications models. Additionally, innovative approaches to user engagement through co-production, communication channels, user-friendly interfaces, and dissemination of climate information have also been developed. Despite the significant progress that has been made in the provision of climate services, there are still many challenges and gaps that need to be overcome in order to ensure that these services are effectively meeting the needs of users. The research of the science underpinning climate variability, capacity building and stakeholder engagement, as well as improved data management and quality control processes are some of the gaps that exist over the region. Additionally, communication and dissemination of climate information, including timely warnings and risk communication, require improvement to reach diverse user groups effectively. Addressing these challenges will require strengthened partnerships, increased investment in capacity building, enhanced collaboration between the climate information producers and stakeholders, and the development of user-friendly climate products. Bridging these gaps will foster greater resilience to climate-related hazards and disasters in the Greater Horn of Africa and support sustainable development in the region

PROVIDER DELAY IN THE DIAGNOSIS AND INITIATION OF DEFINITIVE TREATMENT FOR BREAST CANCER PATIENTS

Objective: To determine the extent and nature of provider delay in breast cancer management at Kenyatta National Hospital (KNH).Design: Retrospective descriptive study.Setting: Kenyatta National Hospital breast clinic.Subjects: Records of 500 patients were reviewed over a four year period.Result: Out of the 500 patient files reviewed a total of 111 (22.2%) were excluded because either whole or part of their diagnostic work-up was done outside KNH (n=66) or they had recurrent disease (n=45), thus leaving 389 eligible for analysis. Mean overall provider delay (time lapse between the patients’ first hospital visit date to time definitive anti-cancer treatment was started) was 87.9 days, (n=160, range 1 to 1683days) and a median of 21.5 days. Nine (5.6%) patients were started on treatment three or more years after they initially presented to the hospital. Mean delay with regard to confirmatory laboratory diagnostic test was 56.2 days (n=83, range 1 to 985 days, standard deviation 146.7) with a median of 17.0 days. Eighty seven (22.4%) patients had complete data set to assess for the lapse in time from definitive diagnosis to the time definitive anti-cancer treatment was initiated. This mean delay was 93.5 dayswith a median of 28.0 days.Conclusion: The median overall provider delay for patients diagnosed with breast cancer at KNH is reasonable and compares well with that of other institutions. It remains to be determined why a small number of patients take unusually long to be put on definitive anti-cancer treatment

Antimicrobial and brine shrimp activity of Acanthus pubescens root extracts

The root dichloromethane and ethyl acetate extracts of Acanthus pubescens (Oliv.) Engl (ACANTHACEAE) exhibited weak antibacterial activity against Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus subtilis, Bacillus anthracis, Salmonella typhi, Streptococcus faecalis, Streptococcus agalactiae and Pseudomonas aeruginosa, with MIC values ranging from 1.6-6.25 mg/ml. The two extracts also exhibited weak antifungal activity against Candida albicans (MIC 6.25 mg/ml). Using the brine shrimps lethality test ethanol, ethyl acetate and aqueous extracts were virtually non-toxic to brine shrimp larvae, but the dichloromethane extract (LC50 38.9 μg/ml) was mildly toxic. These results support the use of the plant in traditional medicine to treat gonorrhea, syphilis, gastroenteritis and pneumonia. Since the plant is used in combination with other plants it is difficult to make any final conclusions regarding safety and efficacy. Further work is needed to evaluate the activity of an extract made from a combination of the six plants

Seroprevalence and associated risk factors of leptospirosis in slaughter pigs: A neglected public health risk, western Kenya

Background Leptospirosis is a neglected zoonosis of public health importance transmitted through contact with contaminated soil, water or urine of infected animals. In pigs the disease is characterized by abortion, still births and weak piglets. A cross-sectional study was conducted in May to July 2018 to estimate the sero-prevalence of leptospirosis and factors associated with seropositivity in slaughter pigs. A questionnaire was used to collect information on animal demographics. Serum was tested for anti-leptospiral antibodies using microscopic agglutination test (MAT) with a panel of 8 serovars. Sera were considered positive for sero-reactivity at a MAT titre ≥1:40 against at least one serovar. Chi-square tests were used to measure the strength of association between the MAT test result and exploratory variables. Results A total of 252 pig serum samples from seven slaughterhouses were tested for Leptospira antibodies by MAT. Of the 252 pigs sampled, 88.8% (244/252) were indigenous breeds; 55.6% (140/252) were female and 88.7% (220/252) were reared in extensive production systems. Eighty-three (32.9%; 83/252) sera samples tested positive on MAT against at least one serovar. Of the 8 serovars, the highest prevalence was recorded for serovar Lora 21.4% followed by Kenya 5.2%, Sokoine 3.6% and Grippotyphosa at 3.2%. Risk factors for leptospirosis seropositivity in pigs were: originating from farms with other types of livestock (OR 2.3; 95% CI 1.0–4.5) and mature pigs (OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.1–3.3). Conclusion This study demonstrates that there is a high prevalence of leptospirosis positive pigs at slaughter in a small-holder livestock keeping region of the Lake Victoria basin. The potential for cross species transmission of pathogenic serovars is highlighted as well as the potential for occupational exposure to slaughterhouse personnel. Improvements in husbandry practices (confinement and rodent control) and public health education among slaughterhouse workers and other high-risk groups is recommended

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

The past 2 years, during which waves of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants swept the globe, have starkly highlighted health disparities across nations. Tegally et al. show how the coordinated efforts of talented African scientists have in a short time made great contributions to pandemic surveillance and data gathering. Their efforts and initiatives have provided early warning that has likely benefited wealthier countries more than their own. Genomic surveillance identified the emergence of the highly transmissible Beta and Omicron variants and now the appearance of Omicron sublineages in Africa. However, it is imperative that technology transfer for diagnostics and vaccines, as well the logistic wherewithal to produce and deploy them, match the data-gathering effort