Financial stress indices on the connectedness of systemic risk between economic powers and forecasting with recurrent neural networks

Els índexs d'estrés financer són un tipus d'indicadors que busquen donar una visió global sobre la situació de risc del sistema financer, al integrar en un sol estadístic un conjunt d'indicadors individuals que medeixen el risc existent dins d'un determinat segment del sistema financer. En aquest projecte explorem les interdependències del risc sistèmic entre les diferents potències europees i entre les tres principals potències financeres globals: Xina, Europa i Estats Units. A més, implementem una red Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) per a predir aquests índexs d'estrés financers en tres horitzons de temps diferents, i comparem els nostres resultats amb models clàssics econométricos com els ARMA-GARCH.Los índices de estrés financiero son un tipo de indicadores que buscan dar una visión global sobre la situación de riesgo del sistema financiero, al integrar en un solo estadístico un conjunto de indicadores individuales que miden el riesgo existente dentro de un determinado segmento del sistema financiero. En este proyecto exploramos las interdependencias del riesgo sistémico entre las distintas potencias europeas y entre las tres principales potencias financieras globales: China, Europa y Estados Unidos. Además, implementamos una red Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) para predecir tales índices de estrés financiero en tres horizontes de tiempo diferentes, y comparamos nuestros resultados con modelos econométricos clásicos como los ARMA-GARCH.Financial stress indices are a type of indicators that seek to provide an overall vision about the risk situation of the financial system, by comprising into a single statistic a set of individual indicators that measure, in some way, the existing risk within a certain segment of the financial system. In this project we explore the interdependencies of systemic risk between the different European powers and between the three main global financial powers: China, Europe and United States. Furthermore, we implement a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network to predict such financial stress indices at three different time horizons, and compare our findings with classical econometric approaches such as ARMA-GARCH models

Data fusion uncertainty-enabled methods to map street-scale hourly NO2 in Barcelona: a case study with CALIOPE-Urban v1.0

Comprehensive monitoring of NO2 exceedances is imperative for protecting human health, especially in urban areas with traffic. However, an accurate spatial characterization of the exceedances is challenging due to the typically low density of air quality monitoring stations and the inherent uncertainties in urban air quality models. We study how observational data from different sources and timescales can be combined with a dispersion air quality model to obtain bias-corrected NO2 hourly maps at the street scale. We present a kriging-based data fusion workflow that merges dispersion model output with continuous hourly observations and uses a machine-learning-based land use regression (LUR) model constrained with past short intensive passive dosimeter campaign measurements. While the hourly observations allow the bias adjustment of the temporal variability in the dispersion model, the microscale LUR model adds information on the NO2 spatial patterns. Our method includes an uncertainty calculation based on the estimated error variance of the universal kriging technique, which is subsequently used to produce urban maps of probability of exceeding the 200 µg m−3 hourly and the 40 µg m−3 annual NO2 average limits. We assess the statistical performance of this approach in the city of Barcelona for the year 2019. Our results show that simply merging the monitoring stations with the model output already significantly increases the correlation coefficient (r) by +29 % and decreases the root mean square error (RMSE) by −32 %. When adding the time-invariant microscale LUR model in the data fusion workflow, the improvement is even more remarkable, with +46 % and −48 % for the r and RMSE, respectively. Our work highlights the usefulness of high-resolution spatial information in data fusion methods to better estimate exceedances at the street scale.We have received support from the Barcelona City Council through the UncertAIR project (ID 22S09501-001; Recerca Jove i emergent 2022). This research has been supported by the Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación through the BROWNING project (grant no. RTI2018-099894-BI00), the Agencia Estatal de Investigación as part of the VITALISE project (grant no. PID2019-108086RA-I00) and the MITIGATE project (grant no. PID2020-116324RA695 I00), the H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions (grant no. H2020-MSCA-COFUND-2016-754433), the AXA Research Fund, and the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (grant nos. RES-AECT-2021-1-0027 and RES-AECT-2021-2-0001).Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Model output statistics (MOS) applied to Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) O3 forecasts: trade-offs between continuous and categorical skill scores

Air quality (AQ) forecasting systems are usually built upon physics-based numerical models that are affected by a number of uncertainty sources. In order to reduce forecast errors, first and foremost the bias, they are often coupled with model output statistics (MOS) modules. MOS methods are statistical techniques used to correct raw forecasts at surface monitoring station locations, where AQ observations are available. In this study, we investigate the extent to which AQ forecasts can be improved using a variety of MOS methods, including moving average, quantile mapping, Kalman filter, analogs and gradient boosting machine methods, and consider as well the persistence method as a reference. We apply our analysis to the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) regional ensemble median O3 forecasts over the Iberian Peninsula during 2018–2019. A key aspect of our study is the evaluation, which is performed using a comprehensive set of continuous and categorical metrics at various timescales, along different lead times and using different meteorological input datasets. Our results show that O3 forecasts can be substantially improved using such MOS corrections and that improvements go well beyond the correction of the systematic bias. Depending on the timescale and lead time, root mean square errors decreased from 20 %–40 % to 10 %–30 %, while Pearson correlation coefficients increased from 0.7–0.8 to 0.8–0.9. Although the improvement typically affects all lead times, some MOS methods appear more adversely impacted by the lead time. The MOS methods relying on meteorological data were found to provide relatively similar performance with two different meteorological inputs. Importantly, our results also clearly show the trade-offs between continuous and categorical skills and their dependencies on the MOS method. The most sophisticated MOS methods better reproduce O3 mixing ratios overall, with the lowest errors and highest correlations. However, they are not necessarily the best in predicting the peak O3 episodes, for which simpler MOS methods can achieve better results. Although the complex impact of MOS methods on the distribution of and variability in raw forecasts can only be comprehended through an extended set of complementary statistical metrics, our study shows that optimally implementing MOS in AQ forecast systems crucially requires selecting the appropriate skill score to be optimized for the forecast application of interest.This research has been funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement H2020-MSCA-COFUND-2016-754433, as well as the MITIGATE project (PID2020-116324RA-I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033) from the Agencia Estatal de Investigacion (AEI). We also acknowledge support by the AXA Research Fund and Red Temática ACTRIS España (CGL2017-90884-REDT), the BSC-CNS “Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa 2015-2019” program (SEV-2015-0493), PRACE, and RES for awarding us access to the MareNostrum supercomputer in the Barcelona Supercomputing Center as well as H2020 ACTRIS IMP (no. 871115). We also acknowledge support from the VITALISE project (PID2019-108086RA-I00) funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

To what extent the traffic restriction policies applied in Barcelona city can improve its air quality?

Barcelona city (Spain) is applying a series of traffic restriction measures that aim at renewing and reducing the amount of circulating vehicles to improve air quality. The measures include changes in the built environment to reduce private vehicle space in specific areas through the so-called “superblocks” and tactical urban planning actions, along with the implementation of a city-wide Low Emission Zone (LEZ) that restricts the entry of the most polluting vehicles to the city. Our study quantifies the impact of these measures in the greater area of Barcelona combining a coupled macroscopic traffic and pollutant emission model with a multi-scale air quality model. Our modelling system allows estimating the effect of different traffic restrictions upon traffic and the associated emissions and air quality levels at a very high resolution (20 m). The measures were evaluated both individually and collectively to assess both their relative and overall impact upon emissions and air quality. We show that in the absence of traffic demand reductions, the application of isolated measures that reduce private vehicle space, either through superblocks or tactical urban planning, have no overall emission impacts; only localized street-level NOx positive and negative changes (±17%) are found due to traffic re-routing and the generation of new bottlenecks. It is only when these measures are combined with optimistic fleet renewal as a result of the LEZ implementation and demand reductions, that relevant global emission reductions in NOx are obtained (-13% and -30%, respectively) with estimated NO2 reductions of -36% and -23% at the two traffic air quality monitoring stations. Despite the potential improvements, our simulations suggest that current measures are insufficient to comply with EU air quality standards and that further traffic restriction policies to reduce traffic demand are needed.The authors acknowledge CARNET-The Future Mobility Research HUB to allow the usage and work on the BCN-VML network, as well as PTV VISUM for the traffic software license. The author thankfully acknowledges the computer resources at MareNostrum and the technical support pro- vided by Barcelona Supercomputing Center (PRACE, AECT-2020-1-0007, AECT-2021-1-0027). The authors also acknowledge the support from the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (MICINN) as part of the BROWNING project RTI2018-099894-B-I00 and NUTRIENT project CGL2017-88911-R and the support from the Agencia Estatal de Investigacion (AEI) as part of the VITALISE project (PID2019-108086RA- I00/AEI/10.13039/501100011033). Carlos Pérez García-Pando acknowl- edges the long-term support from the AXA Chair in Sand and Dust Storms (AXA Research Fund), as well as the support received through the Ramón y Cajal programme (grant RYC-2015-18690) of the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Long-term safety and effectiveness of levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel infusion

Levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel () infusion has demonstrated to improve motor fluctuations. The aim of this study is to assess the long-term safety and effectiveness of infusion in advanced Parkinson's disease () patients with motor fluctuations and its effect in nonmotor symptoms. Adverse events () and their management, clinical motor, and nonmotor aspects were assessed up to 10 years. Thirty-seven patients were treated with ; in three subsets of patients, specific batteries of tests were used to assess cognitive and behavior assessment for 6 months, quality of sleep for 6 months, and quality of life and caregiver burden for 1 year. There was a high number of , but manageable, most of mild and moderate severity. All patients experienced significant improvement in motor fluctuations with a reduction in mean daily off time of 4.87 hr after 3 months (n = 37) to 6.25 hr after 9 years (n = 2). Diskynesias remained stables in 28 patients (75.7%) and improved in 5 patients (13.5%). There was no neuropsychological deterioration, but an improvement in attentional functions, voluntary motor control, and semantic fluency. Quality of sleep did not worsen, and there was an improvement in the subjective parameters, although overnight polysomnography did not change. There was a significant sustained improvement of 37% in -Q39 after 3 months and to 1 year, and a significant reduction in caregiver burden of 10% after 3 months. infusion is a safe and efficacious treatment for the control of motor fluctuations, and for improvement or nonworsening of nonmotor aspects, long-term sustained, and feasible for use in routine care

Varenicline in smokers with severe or very severe COPD after 24 weeks of treatment. A descriptive analysis: VALUE study

A large number of COPD patients are smokers. The particular characteristics of this group as well as their need to quit usually require psychological counselling and pharmacological treatment to achieve abstinence and, often, intensively. Little information is available about this issue.  The main objective of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of varenicline after 24 weeks of treatment, with continuous abstinence between weeks 9 and 24.  This study was a post-authorization, open label, observational study of prospective follow-up. Patients included were smokers with severe or very severe COPD criteria who were treated with varenicline for 24 weeks, i.e. with a 12-week extension over the usual treatment.  The outcomes in the population of subjects completing 24 weeks of follow-up were at week 24: continuous abstinence 36.8%, 7 days point prevalence abstinence 65.7%, and continuous smoking 31.5%.The outcomes in the intention-to-treat population included at baseline were: continuous abstinence 17.7% of patients, 7 days point prevalence abstinence 31.6%, continuous smoking 15.1% and not valid/unknown 51.8%.  The mean CAT score at week 24 was 15 and reduction from the baseline was 3.77 (paired T test, p<0.01). The most common adverse events reported were nausea, vivid dreams, stomach ache, insomnia, headache and vomiting.  Patients included in VALUE were active smokers despite all of them had a severe COPD which suggests a very high degree of dependence. Although the study do not allow to infer the results to the global population of smokers with severe COPD, the outcomes have shown that, at 24 weeks follow up 36.8% of the patients were successful in quitting but from 79 patients enrolled initially only 17.7% quit.

Impacts of Global Change on Mediterranean Forests and Their Services

The increase in aridity, mainly by decreases in precipitation but also by higher temperatures, is likely the main threat to the diversity and survival of Mediterranean forests. Changes in land use, including the abandonment of extensive crop activities, mainly in mountains and remote areas, and the increases in human settlements and demand for more resources with the resulting fragmentation of the landscape, hinder the establishment of appropriate management tools to protect Mediterranean forests and their provision of services and biodiversity. Experiments and observations indicate that if changes in climate, land use and other components of global change, such as pollution and overexploitation of resources, continue, the resilience of many forests will likely be exceeded, altering their structure and function and changing, mostly decreasing, their capacity to continue to provide their current services. A consistent assessment of the impacts of the changes, however, remains elusive due to the difficulty of obtaining simultaneous and complete data for all scales of the impacts in the same forests, areas and regions. We review the impacts of climate change and other components of global change and their interactions on the terrestrial forests of Mediterranean regions, with special attention to their impacts on ecosystem services. Management tools for counteracting the negative effects of global change on Mediterranean ecosystem- services are finally discussed

Impacts of global change on Mediterranean forests and their services

The increase in aridity, mainly by decreases in precipitation but also by higher temperatures, is likely the main threat to the diversity and survival of Mediterranean forests. Changes in land use, including the abandonment of extensive crop activities, mainly in mountains and remote areas, and the increases in human settlements and demand for more resources with the resulting fragmentation of the landscape, hinder the establishment of appropriate management tools to protect Mediterranean forests and their provision of services and biodiversity. Experiments and observations indicate that if changes in climate, land use and other components of global change, such as pollution and overexploitation of resources, continue, the resilience of many forests will likely be exceeded, altering their structure and function and changing, mostly decreasing, their capacity to continue to provide their current services. A consistent assessment of the impacts of the changes, however,remains elusive due to the difficulty of obtaining simultaneous and complete data for all scales of the impacts in the same forests, areas and regions. We review the impacts of climate change and other components of global change and their interactions on the terrestrial forests of Mediterranean regions, with special attention to their impacts on ecosystem services. Management tools for counteracting the negative effects of global change on Mediterranean ecosystem- services are finally discussed

Projecte de rehabilitació d’un cobert ramader del s. XVIII de 155 m2, distribuïts en dues plantes, ubicat al Mas Junens del terme Municipal de Vilallonga de Ter, Ripollès (Girona)

Aquest document justifica el projecte de rehabilitació d'un cobert ramader ubicat al Pirineu català i construït el S.XVIII. Consta de dues plantes construïdes que en total sumen una superfície de 155 m2. La planta baixa de l'edificació s'utilitza com a estable ramader, mentre que la planta superior s'utilitza com a magatzem agrícola. La solució adoptada ha estat seguir la mateixa distribució que es va fer quan es va construir, però seguint en la mesura del possible, les normes de construcció recollides al Codi Tècnic de l'Edificació (CTE), utilitzant programació informàtica i fórmules de càlcul manual per dimensionar la nova estructura. El projecte ha tingut en compte que els materials de la rehabilitació fossin els mateixos o d'unes característiques similars als originals. En aquest sentit, es manté l'estructura de murs de pedra natural per a les parets exteriors, mentre que es rehabilita amb fusta laminada l'estructura de la coberta i el forjat del primer pis i es reforça l'estructura del pilar central mitjançant perfils metàl·lics. Es millora l'aïllament de la coberta i del paviment de fusta del primer pis, es reforma la instal·lació elèctrica i d'il·luminació i es realitza una senzilla instal·lació de fontaneria. Aquest projecte de rehabilitació compta amb uns pressupostos que sumen un total de 39.858,24 .Este documento justifica el proyecto de rehabilitación de un cobertizo ganadero ubicado en el Pirineo catalán y construido el S.XVIII. Consta de dos plantas construidas que en total suman una superficie de 155 m². La planta baja de la edificación se utiliza como establo ganadero, mientras que la planta superior se utiliza como almacén agrícola. La solución adoptada sigue la misma distribución que se hizo cuando se construyó, pero atendiendo, en lo posible, las normas de construcción recogidas en el Código Técnico de la Edificación (CTE), utilizando programas informáticos, así como cálculos manuales basados en los métodos tradicionales de la resistencia de materiales. El proyecto ha tenido en cuenta que los materiales de la rehabilitación fueran los mismos o de unas características parecidas a los originales. En este sentido, se mantiene la estructura de muros de piedra natural para las paredes exteriores, mientras que se rehabilita con madera laminada la estructura de la cubierta y el forjado del primer piso y se refuerza la estructura del pilar central mediante perfiles metálicos. Se mejora el aislamiento de la cubierta y del pavimento de madera del primer piso, se reforma la instalación eléctrica y de iluminación y se realiza una sencilla instalación de fontanería. Este proyecto de rehabilitación cuenta con unos presupuestos que suman un total de 39.858,24.This document justifies a project to refurbish a farm shed located in the Catalan Pyrenees. It was built in the 18th century. The house consists in two built floors that add up to a total area of 155 m2. The ground floor of the building is used as a livestock stable, while the upper floor is used as an agricultural warehouse. The solution adopted has been to follow the same distribution that was made when it was built, but following as far as possible, the construction rules contained in the Codi Tècnic de l'Edificació (CTE), using computer programs as well as manual calculations based on traditional methods of material strength. The project has taken into account that the refurbish materials were the same or of similar characteristics to the originals. In this sense, the structure of natural stone for the exterior walls is maintained, while the structure of the roof and the slab of the first floor is rehabilitated with laminated wood and the structure of the central pillar is reinforced with metal profiles. The insulation of the roof and the wooden flooring of the first floor is improved, the electrical and lighting installations are reformed and a simple plumbing installation is carried out. This rehabilitation project has a total cost of 39.858