Quantifying methane and nitrous oxide emissions from the UK and Ireland using a national-scale monitoring network

The UK is one of several countries around the world that has enacted legislation to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, we present top-down emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) for the UK and Ireland over the period August 2012 to August 2014. These emissions were inferred using measurements from a network of four sites around the two countries. We used a hierarchical Bayesian inverse framework to infer fluxes as well as a set of covariance parameters that describe uncertainties in the system. We inferred average UK total emissions of 2.09 (1.65–2.67) Tg yr−1 CH4 and 0.101 (0.068–0.150) Tg yr−1 N2O and found our derived UK estimates to be generally lower than the a priori emissions, which consisted primarily of anthropogenic sources and with a smaller contribution from natural sources. We used sectoral distributions from the UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) to determine whether these discrepancies can be attributed to specific source sectors. Because of the distinct distributions of the two dominant CH4 emissions sectors in the UK, agriculture and waste, we found that the inventory may be overestimated in agricultural CH4 emissions. We found that annual mean N2O emissions were consistent with both the prior and the anthropogenic inventory but we derived a significant seasonal cycle in emissions. This seasonality is likely due to seasonality in fertilizer application and in environmental drivers such as temperature and rainfall, which are not reflected in the annual resolution inventory. Through the hierarchical Bayesian inverse framework, we quantified uncertainty covariance parameters and emphasized their importance for high-resolution emissions estimation. We inferred average model errors of approximately 20 and 0.4 ppb and correlation timescales of 1.0 (0.72–1.43) and 2.6 (1.9–20 3.9) days for CH4 and N2O, respectively. These errors are a combination of transport model errors as well as errors due to unresolved emissions processes in the inventory. We found the largest CH4 errors at the Tacolneston station in eastern England, which may be due to sporadic emissions from landfills and offshore gas in the North Sea

Increasing concentrations of dichloromethane, CH2Cl2, inferred from CARIBIC air samples collected 1998–2012

Atmospheric concentrations of dichloromethane, CH2Cl2, a regulated toxic air pollutant and minor contributor to stratospheric ozone depletion, were reported to have peaked around 1990 and to be declining in the early part of the 21st century. Recent observations suggest this trend has reversed and that CH2Cl2 is once again increasing in the atmosphere. Despite the importance of ongoing monitoring and reporting of atmospheric CH2Cl2, no time series has been discussed in detail since 2006. The CARIBIC project (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) has analysed the halocarbon content of whole-air samples collected at altitudes of between ~10–12 km via a custom-built container installed on commercial passenger aircraft since 1998, providing a long-term record of CH2Cl2 observations. In this paper we present this unique CH2Cl2 time series, discussing key flight routes which have been used at various times over the past 15 years. Between 1998 and 2012 increases were seen in all northern hemispheric regions and at different altitudes, ranging from ~7–10 ppt in background air to ~13–15 ppt in regions with stronger emissions (equating to a 38–69% increase). Of particular interest is the rising importance of India as a source of atmospheric CH2Cl2: based on CARIBIC data we provide regional emission estimates for the Indian subcontinent and show that regional emissions have increased from 3–14 Gg yr^-1 (1998–2000) to 16–25 Gg yr^-1 (2008). Potential causes of the increasing atmospheric burden of CH2Cl2 are discussed. One possible source is the increased use of CH2Cl2 as a feedstock for the production of HFC-32, a chemical used predominantly as a replacement for ozone-depleting substances in a variety of applications including air conditioners and refrigeration

The effect of neural adaptation of population coding accuracy

Most neurons in the primary visual cortex initially respond vigorously when a preferred stimulus is presented, but adapt as stimulation continues. The functional consequences of adaptation are unclear. Typically a reduction of firing rate would reduce single neuron accuracy as less spikes are available for decoding, but it has been suggested that on the population level, adaptation increases coding accuracy. This question requires careful analysis as adaptation not only changes the firing rates of neurons, but also the neural variability and correlations between neurons, which affect coding accuracy as well. We calculate the coding accuracy using a computational model that implements two forms of adaptation: spike frequency adaptation and synaptic adaptation in the form of short-term synaptic plasticity. We find that the net effect of adaptation is subtle and heterogeneous. Depending on adaptation mechanism and test stimulus, adaptation can either increase or decrease coding accuracy. We discuss the neurophysiological and psychophysical implications of the findings and relate it to published experimental data.Comment: 35 pages, 8 figure

Lordship and Environmental Change in Central Highland Scotland c.1300–c.1400

Whilst there has been an increasing recognition of the infl uence of natural agency on human society in Scotland in the medieval period, conventional historiography has generally presented the wholesale reconfi guration of structures of secular lordship in the Scottish central Highlands in the 14th century as an essentially political consequence of the sociopolitical dislocation associated with the Anglo-Scottish wars that occurred after 1296. The establishment within the region of militarised Gaelic kindreds from the West Highlands and Hebrides of Scotland has come to be regarded as either a symptom of efforts by externally based regional lords to bolster their authority, or an opportunistic territorial aggrandisement by newly dominant neighbouring lords. Feuding and predatory raiding associated with these kindreds is recognised as competition for resources but generally in a context of projection of superior lordship over weaker neighbours. Evidence for long-term changes in climate extrapolated from North Atlantic proxy data, however, suggests that the cattle-based economy of Atlantic Scotland was experiencing protracted environmentally induced stress in the period c.1300–c.1350. Using this evidence, we discuss whether exchange systems operating within traditional lordship structures could offset localised and short-term pressures on the livestock-based regime, but could not be sustained long-term on the reduced fodder and contracting herd sizes caused by climatic deterioration. Territorial expansion and development of a predatory culture, it is argued, were responses to an environment-triggered economic crisis

Recent physical and sexual violence against adults with severe mental illness: a systematic review and meta-analysis

People with severe mental illness (SMI) have high prevalence of lifetime victimization, but little is known about the extent and risk of recent domestic/sexual violence. The objective was to synthesize evidence on prevalence, odds, and risk factors for recent violence against people with SMI, with a focus on domestic and sexual violence. Relevant studies were identified through literature searches in Medline, Psychinf, Embase (for studies published in 2010–2015), and through existing systematic reviews (for studies published in 2000–2014). The review included 30 studies (with 16 140 SMI participants), including six on domestic violence and 11 on sexual violence. Prevalence of recent domestic violence ranged from 15–22% among women and from 4–10% among men/mixed samples; with little evidence on risk compared with the general population. Median prevalence of sexual violence was 9.9% (IQR = 5.9–18.1%) in women and 3.1% (IQR = 2.5–6.7%) in men; with 6-fold higher odds of victimization compared with the general population. There was little evidence on risk factors for domestic or sexual violence. In conclusion, people with SMI have a high prevalence of recent domestic and sexual violence, but little is known about risk factors for these violence types, or extent of domestic violence victimization compared to the general population

Language, reading, and math learning profiles in an epidemiological sample of school age children.

Dyscalculia, dyslexia, and specific language impairment (SLI) are relatively specific developmental learning disabilities in math, reading, and oral language, respectively, that occur in the context of average intellectual capacity and adequate environmental opportunities. Past research has been dominated by studies focused on single impairments despite the widespread recognition that overlapping and comorbid deficits are common. The present study took an epidemiological approach to study the learning profiles of a large school age sample in language, reading, and math. Both general learning profiles reflecting good or poor performance across measures and specific learning profiles involving either weak language, weak reading, weak math, or weak math and reading were observed. These latter four profiles characterized 70% of children with some evidence of a learning disability. Low scores in phonological short-term memory characterized clusters with a language-based weakness whereas low or variable phonological awareness was associated with the reading (but not language-based) weaknesses. The low math only group did not show these phonological deficits. These findings may suggest different etiologies for language-based deficits in language, reading, and math, reading-related impairments in reading and math, and isolated math disabilities

Can the polarization of the strange quarks in the proton be positive ?

Recently, the HERMES Collaboration at DESY, using a leading order QCD analysis of their data on semi-inclusive deep inelastic production of charged hadrons, reported a marginally positive polarization for the strange quarks in the proton. We argue that a non-negative polarization is almost impossible.Comment: 6 pages, latex, minor changes in the discussion after Eq. (9