Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS

There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. [...] advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recommend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun-Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12 hrs ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar-wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4) on developing a comprehensive specification of space climate, including the characterization of extreme space storms to guide resilient and robust engineering of technological infrastructures. The roadmap clusters its implementation recommendations by formulating three action pathways, and outlines needed instrumentation and research programs and infrastructure for each of these. [...]Comment: In press for Advances of Space Research: an international roadmap on the science of space weather, commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS (63 pages and 4 figures

Case studies of the impact of high-speed solar-wind streams on the electron radiation belt at geosynchronous orbit:flux, magnetic field and phase space density

Investigation of electron radiation belt dropouts has revealed the importance of a number of loss processes, yet there remains a lack of quantitative detail as to how these processes wax and wane between events. The overarching aim of this study is to address the issue of electron radiation belt dropouts. This is achieved using in situ observations at geostationary orbit from GOES-13 (pitch-angle-resolved electron data and magnetic field measurements) to examine the outer electron radiation belt during three high-speed stream-driven storms. Analysis and interpretation are aided by calculation of the phase space density (PSD) as a function of the three adiabatic invariants. Our results confirm the importance of outwards adiabatic transport as a mechanism for causing electron dropouts at GEO, however study of the pitch-angle distributions indicates that other loss mechanisms are also likely to be occurring during these HSS-driven storms. Two of the studied events exhibit similar evolutionary structure in their pitch-angle distributions, (i) highly peaked distributions immediately prior to the dropout (ii) sharp transitions between peaked and isotropic and then subsequent butterfly distributions, and (iii) isotropic distributions at minimum flux shortly afterwards (dusk). We also address the difficulty in interpreting PSD calculations by comparing the T96 model magnetic field with that measured by GOES-13. Our results are intended as a first step in quantifying the timeline of events that occur in the radiation belts following the arrival of a HSS - particularly timely given the increase in HSS-occurrence expected in the declining phase of the current solar cycle