Impact of mesoscale eddy transfer heat uptake in an eddy-parameterizing ocean model

Using a set of experiments with an eddy-parameterizing ocean model, it is found that the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) intensifies with the decrease of the density-dependent mesoscale eddy transfer. However, the intensification is weaker than that suggested by simple scaling relationships previously applied. Perturbing the model control sea surface temperature (SST) to mimic its change in response to doubling of CO2, it is shown that the associated ocean heat uptake (OHU) increases and penetrates deeper with the decrease of the mesoscale eddy transfer. It is shown that the OHU correlates with the AMOC strength, and both these quantities are affected by the mesoscale eddy transfer. Passive tracer experiments in the ocean model provide a possible explanation for the finding in coupled-model climate simulations that the ocean heat uptake efficiency (OHUE) increases with the AMOC strength and decreases with the eddy energy generated from the mean state. It is also found that the OHU in the SST-perturbation experiments scales with the net downward advection of heat. The contribution of the AMOC to the downward heat flux is illustrated using a streamfunction in depth-temperature space

The Energetics of Southern Ocean Upwelling

The ocean’s meridional overturning circulation is closed by the upwelling of dense, carbon-rich waters to the surface of the Southern Ocean. It has been proposed that upwelling in this region is driven by strong westerly winds, implying that the intensification of Southern Ocean winds in recent decades may have enhanced the rate of upwelling, potentially affecting the global overturning circulation. However, there is no consensus on the sensitivity of upwelling to winds or on the nature of the connection between Southern Ocean processes and the global overturning circulation. In this study, the sensitivity of the overturning circulation to changes in Southern Ocean westerly wind stress is investigated using an eddy-permitting ocean–sea ice model. In addition to a suite of standard circulation metrics, an energy analysis is used to aid dynamical interpretation of the model response. Increased Southern Ocean wind stress enhances the upper cell of the overturning circulation through creation of available potential energy in the Southern Hemisphere, associated with stronger upwelling of deep water. Poleward shifts in the Southern Ocean westerlies lead to a complicated transient response, with the formation of bottom water induced by increased polynya activity in the Weddell Sea and a weakening of the upper overturning cell in the Northern Hemisphere. The energetic consequences of the upper overturning cell response indicate an interhemispheric connection to the input of available potential energy in the Northern Hemisphere

Separating the influence of projected changes in air temperature and wind on patterns of sea level change and ocean heat content

We present ocean model sensitivity experiments aimed at separating the influence of the projected changes in the “thermal” (near-surface air temperature) and “wind” (near-surface winds) forcing on the patterns of sea level and ocean heat content. In the North Atlantic, the distribution of sea level change is more due to the “thermal” forcing, whereas it is more due to the “wind” forcing in the North Pacific; in the Southern Ocean, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing have a comparable influence. In the ocean adjacent to Antarctica the “thermal” forcing leads to an inflow of warmer waters on the continental shelves, which is somewhat attenuated by the “wind” forcing. The structure of the vertically integrated heat uptake is set by different processes at low and high latitudes: at low latitudes it is dominated by the heat transport convergence, whereas at high latitudes it represents a small residual of changes in the surface flux and advection of heat. The structure of the horizontally integrated heat content tendency is set by the increase of downward heat flux by the mean circulation and comparable decrease of upward heat flux by the subgrid-scale processes; the upward eddy heat flux decreases and increases by almost the same magnitude in response to, respectively, the “thermal” and “wind” forcing. Regionally, the surface heat loss and deep convection weaken in the Labrador Sea, but intensify in the Greenland Sea in the region of sea ice retreat. The enhanced heat flux anomaly in the subpolar Atlantic is mainly caused by the “thermal” forcing

Методика обнаружения аномалий и кибератак на основе интеграции методов фрактального анализа и машинного обучения

В современных сетях передачи данных для постоянного мониторинга сетевого трафика и обнаружения в нем аномальной активности, а также идентификации и классификации кибератак, необходимо учитывать большое число факторов и параметров, включая возможные сетевые маршруты, времена задержки данных, потери пакетов и новые свойства трафика, отличающиеся от нормальных. Все это является побудительным мотивом к поиску новых методов и методик обнаружения кибератак и защиты от них сетей передачи данных. В статье рассматривается методика обнаружения аномалий и кибератак, предназначенная для использования в современных сетях передачи данных, которая основывается на интеграции методов фрактального анализа и машинного обучения. Методика ориентирована на выполнение в реальном или близком к реальному масштабе времени и включает несколько этапов: (1) выявления аномалий в сетевом трафике, (2) идентификации в аномалиях кибератак и (3) классификации кибератак. Первый этап реализуется с помощью методов фрактального анализа (оценки самоподобия сетевого трафика), второй и третий – с применением методов машинного обучения, использующих ячейки рекуррентных нейронных сетей с долгой краткосрочной памятью. Рассматриваются вопросы программной реализации предлагаемой методики, включая формирование набора данных, содержащего сетевые пакеты, циркулирующие в сети передачи данных. Представлены результаты экспериментальной оценки предложенной методики, полученные с использованием сформированного набора данных. Результаты экспериментов показали достаточно высокую эффективность предложенной методики и разработанных для нее решений, позволяющих осуществлять раннее обнаружение как известных, так и неизвестных кибератак

Contribution of ocean physics and dynamics at different scales to heat uptake in low-resolution AOGCMs

Using an ensemble of atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) in an idealized climate change experiment, this study quantifies the contributions to ocean heat uptake (OHU) from ocean physical parameterizations and resolved dynamical processes operating at different scales. Analysis of heat budget diagnostics reveals a leading-order global heat balance in the sub-surface upper ocean in a steady state between the large-scale circulation warming it and mesoscale processes cooling it, and shows that there are positive contributions from processes on all scales to the subsurface OHU during climate change. There is better agreement among the AOGCMs in the net OHU than in the individual scales/processes contributing to it. In the upper ocean and at high latitudes, OHU is dominated by small-scale diapycnal processes. Below 400 m, OHU is dominated by the super-residual transport, representing large-scale ocean dynamics combined with all parameterized mesoscale and submesoscale eddy effects. Weakening of the AMOC leads to less heat convergence in the subpolar North Atlantic and less heat divergence at lower latitudes, with a small overall effect on the net Atlantic heat content. At low latitudes, the dominance of advective heat redistribution is contrary to the diffusive OHU mechanism assumed by the commonly used upwelling-diffusion model. Using a density watermass framework, it is found that most of the OHU occurs along isopycnal directions. This feature of OHU is used to accurately reconstruct the global vertical ocean warming profile from the surface heat flux anomalies, supporting advective (rather than diffusive) models of OHU and sea-level rise

Ocean‐Only FAFMIP: Understanding Regional Patterns of Ocean Heat Content and Dynamic Sea Level Change

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What causes the spread of model projections of ocean dynamic sea-level change in response to greenhouse gas forcing?

Sea levels of different atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) respond to climate change forcing in different ways, representing a crucial uncertainty in climate change research. We isolate the role of the ocean dynamics in setting the spatial pattern of dynamic sea-level (zeta) change by forcing several AOGCMs with prescribed identical heat, momentum (wind) and freshwater flux perturbations. This method produces a zeta projection spread comparable in magnitude to the spread that results from greenhouse gas forcing, indicating that the differences in ocean model formulation are the cause, rather than diversity in surface flux change. The heat flux change drives most of the global pattern of zeta change, while the momentum and water flux changes cause locally confined features. North Atlantic heat uptake causes large temperature and salinity driven density changes, altering local ocean transport and zeta. The spread between AOGCMs here is caused largely by differences in their regional transport adjustment, which redistributes heat that was already in the ocean prior to perturbation. The geographic details of the zeta change in the North Atlantic are diverse across models, but the underlying dynamic change is similar. In contrast, the heat absorbed by the Southern Ocean does not strongly alter the vertically coherent circulation. The Arctic zeta change is dissimilar across models, owing to differences in passive heat uptake and circulation change. Only the Arctic is strongly affected by nonlinear interactions between the three air-sea flux changes, and these are model specific.Peer reviewe