Defining a Conceptual Model for Market Mechanisms in Food Supply Chains, and Parameterizing Price Functions for Coffee, Wheat, Corn, Soybeans, and Beef

The contribution of the study presented in this paper is twofold. Firstly, to add to the present body of knowledge of food supply and demand model dynamics and the associated economics, based on system analysis. It describes a new approach for dealing with price mechanisms in models based on causal links and dynamic feedbacks. It has been applied to some main global food commodities, but has also been used for metals and materials in a parallel study. The price mechanism is described in a way to be useful for other modelers dealing with price mechanism, and it enables modelers to make dynamic price endogenous in models. Secondly, it presents price function curves for different food commodities, parameterizing a fundamental property of the commodity trade

Applying System Analysis and System Dynamics Modelling In Complex Research Projects - The Case Of VALUMICS

VALUMICS is a Horizon 2020 project funded by the European Commission (2017-2021). The project structure is highly integrated and transdisciplinary, building on the expertise of over 30 specialists in various fields of research including knowledge integration through systems analysis and system dynamics modelling, food science, supply chain management, life cycle assessment, logistics, economics and social science. The aim of the project is to analyze the dynamics of food supply systems using a structural analysis including system analysis and perform system simulations using system dynamics. The VALUMICS research approach and the project design are explained and it is justified why system analysis is needed to obtain an understanding of the complex connections and interactions of the distinct parts of food systems. Patterns will be recognized and thus causes and effects of complex relations within the selected food supply system and networks will be identified. This understanding of the functioning of the system can in turn be used to identify policy interventions

System Dynamics Modelling and System Analysis Applied in Complex Research Projects - the Case of VALUMICS

VALUMICS is a Horizon 2020 project funded by the European Commission (2017-2021). The project structure is highly integrated and transdisciplinary, building on the expertise of over 30 specialists in various fields of research including knowledge integration through systems analysis and system dynamics modelling, food science, supply chain management, life cycle assessment, logistics, economics and social science. The aim of the project is to analyze the dynamics of food supply- and value chain systems using a structural analysis including system analysis and perform system simulations using system dynamics. The VALUMICS research approach and the project design are explained and it is justified why system analysis is needed to obtain an understanding of the complex connections and interactions of the distinct parts of food systems. Patterns will be recognized and thus causes and effects of complex relations within the selected food supply system and networks will be identified. This understanding of the functioning of the system can in turn be used to identify policy interventions

Matarumhverfi við íþróttaiðkun barna: rannsóknarverkefni

Fjöldi íslenskra barna stundar æfingar hjá íþróttafélögum í frítíma sínum og mótast börnin á ýmsan hátt af umhverfi íþróttamiðstöðva og nágrennis. Markmið rannsóknarinnar var að rannsaka fæðuval 10–18 ára barna í tengslum við íþróttaæfingar þeirra og matarumhverfi hjá Ungmennafélaginu Aftureldingu (UMFA) í Mosfellsbæ. Bæjarfélagið Mosfellsbær hefur verið brautryðjandi sem heilsueflandi samfélag frá innleiðingu 2013. Leitast var við að varpa ljósi á það hvernig börn og foreldrar upplifa matarumhverfi og fæðuframboð innan íþróttamiðstöðvar félagsins, auk þess að kanna fæðuvenjur barna í tengslum við æfingar. Ljóst má vera að umhverfið er mikilvægur áhrifaþáttur fæðuvals. Tilgáta verkefnisins var tvíþætt: A) Að fæðuvenjur í tengslum við íþróttaiðkun barnanna mótist að nokkru leyti af framboði í veitingasölunni og framboðið hindri það hugsanlega að hægt sé að velja hollan mat. B) Markaðssetning og auglýsingar um hvers kyns óhollustu séu áberandi í matarumhverfinu og börn jafnt sem foreldrar upplifi það sem hindrun. Rannsóknin tók til 221 barns, 105 stúlkna og 116 drengja, í sjö greinum íþrótta hjá félaginu og foreldra þeirra (n=175). Notaðir voru tveir áþekkir spurningalistar og var annar ætlaður foreldrum en hinn börnum. Jafnframt gerðu rannsakendur úttekt á matarumhverfi, þar með talið auglýsingum, og fæðuframboði innan íþróttamiðstöðvarinnar. Samkvæmt niðurstöðunum einkenndist fæðuval iðkenda, í tengslum við íþróttaiðkun, af hollum eða frekar hollum valkostum. Fáir iðkendur nýttu sér það reglulega að kaupa mat í veitingasölu íþróttahússins í tengslum við æfingar. Um þriðja hvert foreldri og fjórða hvert barn vildu sjá breytingar á matarumhverfi félagsins. Foreldrar litu á mat að heiman, þjálfara og vini sem helstu hvata til að borða hollan mat í tengslum við æfingar. Helstu hvatar að mati barna voru framboð á mat að heiman og nægur tími. Að mati foreldra voru helstu hindranir fyrir því að borða hollan mat tímaskortur, verð, aðstaða og framboð í matsölu félagsins. Orkuríkir en næringarsnauðir valkostir einkenndu framboð á matvöru og drykk í veitingasölu íþróttahússins. Auglýsingar um mat og drykk voru flestar í aðalsal félagsins. Af niðurstöðunum má álykta að mikilvægt sé að endurskoða bæði aðstöðu til að matast og framboð á mat og drykk í íþróttamiðstöðinni og mæta þannig óskum foreldra og barna. Fæðutengdar auglýsingar voru mjög áberandi í húsnæði félagsins en í þessari rannsókn var ekki metið hvort auglýsingarnar sem slíkar hefðu áhrif á fæðuval barnanna. Æskilegt væri að kanna hugsanleg áhrif betur, en um leið ætti það að vera stefna íþróttafélaga þar sem börn stunda reglulegar æfingar að draga úr áreiti með auglýsingum.Many Icelandic children are engaged in organized sports during leisure time. These children are influenced by factors in the sporting environment and this has been found to be an important setting for health promotion which is the process of enabling people to increase control over their health and improve it. The determinants of health are. in addition to individual characteristics and behaviours, the social -, economic - , and physical environment. A healthy nutrition environment increases the possibilities of accessing healthy food and beverages. The aim of the study was to observe food choices among 10-18 year old children and the food environment of their sports club, Ungmennafélagið Afturelding (UMFA), located in the municipality of Mosfellsbær. The municipality has been a pioneer as a health promoting community since 2013. The approach aimed to gain insight into how the food environment of the sports center can impact food choices of children in sports and also to explore parents’ and children’s perception of food and drinks available at the center. The hypotheses were: A) that food choices in relation to children’s sports were limited by availability in the sports center and that the supply was a possible hindrance for choosing healthy foods. B) that food-related marketing and advertisements were prominent in the food environment and that this would be experienced by both children and parents as a hindrance to choosing healthy foods. This cross-sectional study involved 221 children, 105 girls and 116 boys, participating in seven different sports (soccer, handball, gymnastics, athletics, volleyball, taekwondo and karate) and their parents (n=175). Two similar questionnaires were used, one for parents and one for children. The questionnaires included food frequency questionnaires and questions on the food environment at the sports center. Parents filled in the questionnaire online, while children filled in their questionnaire on paper during training. Observational assessment of the food environment was also conducted, including registration of the number and type of advertisements the children were exposed to and food items sold at the sports center. The results show that food choices associated with training seemed rather healthy and nutritious. Few children bought meals on a regular basis at the sports center, but more girls (15%) than boys (9%) did so occassionally. Few children had their meals at the sports center on a regular basis, again more girls (12%) than boys (4%). When asked about the food environment, the children were more positive towards the facilities than the parents, as 40% of the children reported that the facilities were good or very good, compared to 18% of the parents. Roughly one third of parents and one fourth of children said that changes were needed. Parents considered food available at home, as well as the influence of coaches and friends, as major incentives for healthy eating before and after training. Children regarded food available at home and enough time as major incentives. According to parents, the major hindrances were lack of time, price, facilities, and types of food available at the sports center. Observational assessment of the food environment concluded that most of the food and drinks sold at the center were energy dense and nutritionally poor and that food advertisements were most prominent in the main hall. It can be concluded that it is important to reconsider facilities and the variety of foods and drinks sold at the sports centre, since this would be in line with the wishes of both children and parents. Increased availability of healthy foods at sports centers could increase the consumption of those, as it is part of health promotion to make the healthy choice the easy choice. The researchers see sports centers as a pedagogical environment where the supply of healthy foods should be increased at the cost of the energy dense and nutritionally poor food items more prominent at the center. Coaches were among the major incentives for the children’s healthy eating, according to the parents, consequently the coaches’ role in health promoting activities at sports clubs should be emphasized. The results of this study can be used as a basis for health promotion initiatives and the development of nutritional policies for sports clubs. Food-related advertisments were readily visible, but their impact on children’s food choices was not studied. Further research is recommended and sports centers and teams should also aim to minimize advertising stimuli.Peer Reviewe

Modeling of Integrated Supply-, Value- and Decision Chains within Food Systems

This paper presents a work in progress on the development of a mental model of a food system using system analysis. The aim is to be able to use this model to create a mathematical simulation model that can be used to identify policy intervention opportunities, specifically focusing on the resilience, integrity and sustainability of food supply networks. The traditional view of food systems as supply chains with a downstream physical flow of products is extended to include the associated upstream flow of money and the decision chains that link these flows. Central to this work is the idea that supply systems are driven by profit and regulated by market dynamics and that these factors generate the underlying feedback structure of the system. Studying the structure of such systems as integrated supply-, value- and decision chains has underscored their complexity and the need for further, more food system specific research

Public Perception of Wilderness in Iceland

Publisher's version (útgefin grein)In recent years, there has been a gradually growing emphasis on the protection of wilderness in Iceland. This is highlighted in the current preparation of a new national park in the Icelandic central highlands, which will become Europe's largest national parks. However, in order to protect the wilderness, a mutual understanding, both on what it is and where it is, is needed. This paper seeks to evaluate Icelanders' perception and understanding of wilderness. Furthermore, to assess the value of wilderness for the Icelandic public and determine what lies behind the valuation, an online survey aided by maps from Google Earth and photographic scenarios of different landscapes was sent out to a nationally representative sample of Icelanders. The survey respondents mapped their perceived scope of Icelandic wilderness and furthermore chose between several landscape scenarios they thought most and least suited to their perception of wilderness. The results show that nearly all land located above the 300 m elevation line is perceived as wilderness, reflecting the country's uninhabited highlands areas. The results also show that for the general public in Iceland it is chiefly an open and vast landscape, uninhabited areas, and the absence of anthropogenic features that bestow an area with the status of wilderness. The results demonstrate that any sign of anthropogenic interference, aside from archaeological remains, decrease Icelanders' perception of wilderness. Moreover, despite being mostly categorized as urbanists or neutralists according to the purism scale, the majority of Icelanders still consider services, such as petrol stations, hotels, shops, restaurants, and diverse leisure services, along with energy production, to negatively impact the value of wilderness. Most Icelanders thus seem to regard wilderness as a valuable asset from the economic, cultural, and environmental perspectives, which underscores its uniqueness.This research was funded by the Ministry for the Environment and Natural Resources and the steering committee for the Icelandic Master Plan for Nature Protection and Energy Utilization.Peer Reviewe

System Dynamics Modelling of the Global Extraction, Supply, Price, Reserves, Resources and Environmental Losses of Mercury

Publisher's version (útgefin grein)How mercury flows from geological sources to society and to the environment was modelled for this study. The industrial dynamics of mercury was modelled and included in the integrated assessment model WORLD7. The simulated mercury losses were used as input for a simplified global model for environmental pollution. The outputs were analysed and used to assess mercury pollution amounts and supply to society. In fossil fuels, there are a potential stock of 2 million tons in coal and other hydrocarbons, and 450,000 tons of that could be released to the environment if the fossil fuels are all to be burned. Such release would potentially cause major environmental damage and a significant human health risk. The simulations suggest that environmental mercury flows may peak in 2025, and slowly decline as mercury gets immobilized in nature. The simulations show that the pollution from technical use is eliminated by putting the 2013 Minimata Convention into effect, but that environmental pollution from fossil fuels combustion and from environmental re-emissions will remain a significant problem for the next decades.Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz, Bau und Reaktorsicherheit. Funding number: FKZ 3712 93 102Peer Reviewe

Weight loss before conception: A systematic literature review.

To access publisher's full text version of this article click on the hyperlink at the bottom of the pageThe prevalence of overweight and obesity in women has increased during the last decades. This is a serious concern since a high BMI before conception is an independent risk factor for many adverse outcomes of pregnancy. Therefore, dietary counseling, intended to stimulate weight loss in overweight and obese women prior to conception has recently been recommended. However, dieting with the purpose to lose weight may involve health risks for mother and offspring. We conducted a systematic literature review to identify papers investigating the effects of weight loss due to dietary interventions before conception. The objective of this study is to assess the effect of weight loss prior to conception in overweight or obese women on a number of health-related outcomes in mother and offspring using studies published between January 2000 and December 2011. Our first literature search produced 486 citations and, based on predefined eligibility criteria, 58 were selected and ordered in full text. Two group members read each paper. Fifteen studies were selected for quality assessment and two of them were considered appropriate for inclusion in evidence tables. A complementary search identified 168 citations with four papers being ordered in full text. The two selected studies provided data for overweight and obese women. One showed a positive effect of weight loss before pregnancy on the risk of gestational diabetes and one demonstrated a reduced risk for large-for-gestational-age infants in women with a BMI above 25 who lost weight before pregnancy. No study investigated the effect of weight loss due to a dietary intervention before conception. There is a lack of studies on overweight and obese women investigating the effect of dietary-induced weight loss prior to conception on health-related variables in mother and offspring. Such studies are probably lacking since they are difficult to conduct. Therefore, alternative strategies to control the body weight of girls and women of reproductive age are needed

Development and Validation of a Photographic Method to Use for Dietary Assessment in School Settings.

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files. This article is open access.To develop and validate a photographic method aimed at making assessment of dietary intake in school canteens non-obstrusive, practical and feasible.The study was conducted in two elementary schools representing two different school canteen systems; main dish being served by canteen staff (Iceland), and complete self-serving (Sweden). Food items in serving and leftovers were weighed and photographed. Trained researchers estimated weights of food items by viewing the photographs and comparing them with pictures of half and full reference portions with known weights. Plates of servings and leftovers from 48 children during five school days (n = 448 plates) and a total of 5967 food items were estimated. The researchers' estimates were then compared with the true weight of the foods and the energy content calculated.Weighed and estimated amounts correlated across meals both in grams and as total energy (0.853-0.977, p<0.001). The agreement between estimated energy content in school meals was close to the true measurement from weighed records; on average 4-19 kcal below true values. Organisation of meal service impacted the efficacy of the method as seen in the difference between countries; with Iceland (served by canteen staff) having higher rate of acceptable estimates than Sweden (self-serving), being 95% vs 73% for total amount (g) in serving. Iceland more often had serving size between or above the half and full reference plates compared with Sweden.The photographic method provides acceptable estimates of food and energy intake in school canteens. However, greater accuracy can be expected when foods are served by canteen staff compared with self-serving