Gaussian-process-based demand forecasting for predictive control of drinking water networks

Trabajo presentado a la 9th International Conference on Critical Information Infrastructures Security, celebrada en Limassol (Chipre) del 13 al 15 de octubre de 2014.This paper focuses on short-term water demand forecasting for predictive control of DrinkingWater Networks (DWN) by using Gaussian Process (GP). For the predictive control strategy, system state prediction in a nite horizon are generated by a DWN model and demands are regarded as system disturbances. The goal is to provide a demand estimation within a given condence interval. For the sake of obtaining a desired forecasting performance, the forecasting process is carried out in two parts: the expected part is forecasted by Double-Seasonal Holt-Winters (DSHW) method and the stochastic part is forecasted by GP method. The mean value of water demand is rstly estimated by DSHW while GP provides estimations within a condence interval. GP is applied with random inputs to propagate uncertainty at each step. Results of the application of the proposed approach to a real case study based on the Barcelona DWN have shown that the general goal has been successfully reached.This work is partially supported by the research projects SHERECS DPI-2011-26243 and ECOCIS DPI-2013-48243-C2-1-R, both of the Spanish Ministry of Education, by EFFINET grant FP7-ICT-2012-318556 of the European Commission and by AGAUR Doctorat Industrial 2013-DI-041. Ye Wang also thanks China Scholarship Council for providing postgraduate scholarship.Peer Reviewe

Evolutionary-game-based dynamical tuning for multi-objective model predictive control

Model predictive control (MPC) is one of the most used optimization-based control strategies for large-scale systems, since this strategy allows to consider a large number of states and multi-objective cost functions in a straightforward way. One of the main issues in the design of multi-objective MPC controllers, which is the tuning of the weights associated to each objective in the cost function, is treated in this work. All the possible combinations of weights within the cost function affect the optimal result in a given Pareto front. Furthermore, when the system has time-varying parameters, e.g., periodic disturbances, the appropriate weight tuning might also vary over time. Moreover, taking into account the computational burden and the selected sampling time in the MPC controller design, the computation time to find a suitable tuning is limited. In this regard, the development of strategies to perform a dynamical tuning in function of the system conditions potentially improves the closed-loop performance. In order to adapt in a dynamical way the weights in the MPC multi-objective cost function, an evolutionary-game approach is proposed. This approach allows to vary the prioritization weights in the proper direction taking as a reference a desired region within the Pareto front. The proper direction for the prioritization is computed by only using the current system values, i.e., the current optimal control action and the measurement of the current states, which establish the system cost function over a certain point in the Pareto front. Finally, some simulations of a multi-objective MPC for a real multi-variable case study show a comparison between the system performance obtained with static and dynamical tuning.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Depression in older adults: prevalence and risk factors in a primary health care sample

BACKGROUND: Depression in the geriatric population has been identified as a significant problem in view of the associated negative outcomes regarding poor functioning, increased perception of poor health and increased utilisation of medical services. Significantly associated with increased morbidity and mortality, depression has been found to be an independent cause of disability as well as adding to disability due to primary physical illnesses. Early identification and treatment of depression reduces medical costs and lessens caregiver burden. Epidemiological data and prevalence rates of geriatric depression in Africa are limited, although such data are vital to mobilise and plan government mental health initiatives aimed at screening and early intervention. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prevalence of depression and associated clinical and socio-demographic factors amongst older adult patients attending a primary health care clinic in the Ethekwini District in Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa. METHODS: The 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale and a socio-demographic questionnaire were administered in English to 255 geriatric outpatients, randomly selected, at a local community clinic in Durban. DATA ANALYSIS: Data were analysed using SPSS version 23®. Descriptive statistics were used to summarise the sample demographics and response rate and non-parametric statistics were used to test for associations and differences. RESULTS: A Cronbach’s alpha for the GDS was calculated (p = 0.793). Some 40% of participants screened positive for depression. Female gender, widowhood and a negative subjective health status rating were significantly associated with depression and marriage appeared to be protective (p < 0.001). Participants with a poor subjective health rating were 21 times more likely to be depressed and widowhood conferred an almost fourfold increased risk of being depressed, with widows at greater risk than widowers. No association between depression and specific medical conditions was identified. CONCLUSION: There is a high rate of undetected depression among the elderly attending a local primary health care clinic with widowhood and poor subjective health being strong predictors of mood disorders. The findings warrant replication in bigger samples.DHE

POMK regulates dystroglycan function via LARGE-mediated elongation of matriglycan

Matriglycan [-GlcA-β1,3-Xyl-α1,3-]n serves as a scaffold in many tissues for extracellular matrix proteins containing laminin-G domains including laminin, agrin, and perlecan. Like-acetylglucosaminyltransferase-1 (LARGE1) synthesizes and extends matriglycan on α-dystroglycan (α-DG) during skeletal muscle differentiation and regeneration; however, the mechanisms which regulate matriglycan elongation are unknown. Here, we show that Protein O-Mannose Kinase (POMK), which phosphorylates mannose of core M3 (GalNac-β1,3-GlcNac-β1,4-Man) preceding matriglycan synthesis, is required for LARGE1-mediated generation of full-length matriglycan on α-DG (~150 kDa). In the absence of Pomk in mouse skeletal muscle, LARGE1 synthesizes a very short matriglycan resulting in a ~90 kDa α-DG which binds laminin but cannot prevent eccentric contraction-induced force loss or muscle pathology. Solution NMR spectroscopy studies demonstrate that LARGE1 directly interacts with core M3 and binds preferentially to the phosphorylated form. Collectively, our study demonstrates that phosphorylation of core M3 by POMK enables LARGE1 to elongate matriglycan on α-DG, thereby preventing muscular dystrophy

Motor contagion: the contribution of trajectory and end-points

Increased involuntary arm movement deviation when observing an incongruent human arm movement has been interpreted as a strong indicator of motor contagion. Here, we examined the contribution of trajectory and end-point information on motor contagion by altering congruence between the stimulus and arm movement. Participants performed cyclical horizontal arm movements whilst simultaneously observing a stimulus representing human arm movement. The stimuli comprised congruent horizontal movements or vertical movements featuring incongruent trajectory and end-points. A novel, third, stimulus comprised curvilinear movements featuring congruent end-points, but an incongruent trajectory. In Experiment 1, our dependent variables indicated increased motor contagion when observing the vertical compared to horizontal movement stimulus. There was even greater motor contagion in the curvilinear stimulus condition indicating an additive effect of an incongruent trajectory comprising congruent end-points. In Experiment 2, this additive effect was also present when facing perpendicular to the display, and thus with end-points represented as a product of the movement rather than an external spatial reference. Together, these findings support the theory of event coding (Hommel et al., Behav Brain Sci 24:849–878, 2001), and the prediction that increased motor contagion takes place when observed and executed actions share common features (i.e., movement end-points)

Effect of mivacurium 200 and 250 μg/kg in infants during isoflurane anesthesia: a randomized controlled trial [ISRCTN07742712]

BACKGROUND: Infants usually respond differently to a neuromuscular relaxant compared to children or adults. Isoflurane is commonly used as an anesthetic gas in infants. In an RCT design, we investigated whether a dose of mivacurium 250 μg/kg results in faster onset of action than 200 μg/kg in infants under isoflurane anesthesia. Spontaneous recovery times and cardiovascular response were also evaluated. METHODS: Twenty-four low surgical risk children, aged 6–24 months, undergoing an elective surgery and requiring tracheal intubation were selected. After anesthetic induction, patients randomly received an iv bolus dose of mivacurium 200 or 250 μg/kg. After maximal relaxation, the patient was intubated. Isoflurane was administered to maintain anesthetic level during the surgical procedure. Neuromuscular function was monitored by accelerometry (TOF-Guard) at the adductor pollicies. The first twitch (T) of the TOF and the T4/T1 were measured. The time-course of heart rate and systolic and diastolic blood pressure were analysed by transforming them into their respective areas under the curve. RESULTS: Mivacurium 250 μg/kg produced a maximal T block faster than 200 μg/kg, i.e. 2.4 ± 1.1 vs. 3.5 ± 1.4 min (p < 0.05). Spontaneous recovery times were similar in both groups. Heart rate was similar between doses while systolic and diastolic blood pressures were lower with the higher dose (p < 0.05). Flushing was observed in two cases, one in each group. CONCLUSIONS: The maximal effect of mivacurium 250 μg/kg, in infants under isoflurane anesthesia, was present one minute faster than 200 μg/kg. However, it produced a significant cardiovascular response

Human neutrophils phagocytose and kill Acinetobacter baumanii and A. pittii

Acinetobacter baumannii is a common cause of health care associated infections worldwide. A. pittii is an opportunistic pathogen also frequently isolated from Acinetobacter infections other than those from A. baumannii. Knowledge of Acinetobacter virulence factors and their role in pathogenesis is scarce. Also, there are no detailed published reports on the interactions between A. pittii and human phagocytic cells. Using confocal laser and scanning electron microscopy, immunofluorescence, and live-cell imaging, our study shows that immediately after bacteria-cell contact, neutrophils rapidly and continuously engulf and kill bacteria during at least 4 hours of infection in vitro. After 3 h of infection, neutrophils start to release neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs) against Acinetobacter. DNA in NETs colocalizes well with human histone H3 and with the specific neutrophil elastase. We have observed that human neutrophils use large filopodia as cellular tentacles to sense local environment but also to detect and retain bacteria during phagocytosis. Furthermore, co-cultivation of neutrophils with human differentiated macrophages before infections shows that human neutrophils, but not macrophages, are key immune cells to control Acinetobacter. Although macrophages were largely activated by both bacterial species, they lack the phagocytic activity demonstrated by neutrophils