Characterization of Overlap in Observational Studies

Overlap between treatment groups is required for non-parametric estimation of causal effects. If a subgroup of subjects always receives the same intervention, we cannot estimate the effect of intervention changes on that subgroup without further assumptions. When overlap does not hold globally, characterizing local regions of overlap can inform the relevance of causal conclusions for new subjects, and can help guide additional data collection. To have impact, these descriptions must be interpretable for downstream users who are not machine learning experts, such as policy makers. We formalize overlap estimation as a problem of finding minimum volume sets subject to coverage constraints and reduce this problem to binary classification with Boolean rule classifiers. We then generalize this method to estimate overlap in off-policy policy evaluation. In several real-world applications, we demonstrate that these rules have comparable accuracy to black-box estimators and provide intuitive and informative explanations that can inform policy making.Comment: To appear at AISTATS 202

Prevalence of Escherichia coli O157:H7 in cow-calf herds in Kansas

Fecal samples from cows and calves and samples of water sources were collected monthly for 8 months from 10 Kansas cow-calf farms to determine the prevalence of E. coli O157:H7. The bacterium was found in 8% of fecal samples from cows that were within 24 hours of calving, 1.4% of fecal samples from cows which were not within 24 hours of calving, 1.4% of calf fecal samples, and 1.5% of water samples. E. coli O157:H7 was identified from at least one sample on all farms

KELT-11b: A Highly Inflated Sub-Saturn Exoplanet Transiting the V=8 Subgiant HD 93396

We report the discovery of a transiting exoplanet, KELT-11b, orbiting the bright ($V=8.0$) subgiant HD 93396. A global analysis of the system shows that the host star is an evolved subgiant star with $T_{\rm eff} = 5370\pm51$ K, $M_{*} = 1.438_{-0.052}^{+0.061} M_{\odot}$, $R_{*} = 2.72_{-0.17}^{+0.21} R_{\odot}$, log $g_*= 3.727_{-0.046}^{+0.040}$, and [Fe/H]$= 0.180\pm0.075$. The planet is a low-mass gas giant in a $P = 4.736529\pm0.00006$ day orbit, with $M_{P} = 0.195\pm0.018 M_J$, $R_{P}= 1.37_{-0.12}^{+0.15} R_J$, $\rho_{P} = 0.093_{-0.024}^{+0.028}$ g cm$^{-3}$, surface gravity log ${g_{P}} = 2.407_{-0.086}^{+0.080}$, and equilibrium temperature $T_{eq} = 1712_{-46}^{+51}$ K. KELT-11 is the brightest known transiting exoplanet host in the southern hemisphere by more than a magnitude, and is the 6th brightest transit host to date. The planet is one of the most inflated planets known, with an exceptionally large atmospheric scale height (2763 km), and an associated size of the expected atmospheric transmission signal of 5.6%. These attributes make the KELT-11 system a valuable target for follow-up and atmospheric characterization, and it promises to become one of the benchmark systems for the study of inflated exoplanets.Comment: 15 pages, Submitted to AAS Journal

The CEA/CD3-Bispecific Antibody MEDI-565 (MT111) Binds a Nonlinear Epitope in the Full-Length but Not a Short Splice Variant of CEA

MEDI-565 (also known as MT111) is a bispecific T-cell engager (BiTE®) antibody in development for the treatment of patients with cancers expressing carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). MEDI-565 binds CEA on cancer cells and CD3 on T cells to induce T-cell mediated killing of cancer cells. To understand the molecular basis of human CEA recognition by MEDI-565 and how polymorphisms and spliced forms of CEA may affect MEDI-565 activity, we mapped the epitope of MEDI-565 on CEA using mutagenesis and homology modeling approaches. We found that MEDI-565 recognized a conformational epitope in the A2 domain comprised of amino acids 326–349 and 388–410, with critical residues F326, T328, N333, V388, G389, P390, E392, I408, and N410. Two non-synonymous single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) (rs10407503, rs7249230) were identified in the epitope region, but they are found at low homozygosity rates. Searching the National Center for Biotechnology Information GenBank® database, we further identified a single, previously uncharacterized mRNA splice variant of CEA that lacks a portion of the N-terminal domain, the A1 and B1 domains, and a large portion of the A2 domain. Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction analysis of multiple cancers showed widespread expression of full-length CEA in these tumors, with less frequent but concordant expression of the CEA splice variant. Because the epitope was largely absent from the CEA splice variant, MEDI-565 did not bind or mediate T-cell killing of cells solely expressing this form of CEA. In addition, the splice variant did not interfere with MEDI-565 binding or activity when co-expressed with full-length CEA. Thus MEDI-565 may broadly target CEA-positive tumors without regard for expression of the short splice variant of CEA. Together our data suggest that MEDI-565 activity will neither be impacted by SNPs nor by a splice variant of CEA

KELT-8b: A highly inflated transiting hot Jupiter and a new technique for extracting high-precision radial velocities from noisy spectra

We announce the discovery of a highly inflated transiting hot Jupiter discovered by the KELT-North survey. A global analysis including constraints from isochrones indicates that the V = 10.8 host star (HD 343246) is a mildly evolved, G dwarf with $T_{\rm eff} = 5754_{-55}^{+54}$ K, $\log{g} = 4.078_{-0.054}^{+0.049}$, $[Fe/H] = 0.272\pm0.038$, an inferred mass $M_{*}=1.211_{-0.066}^{+0.078}$ M$_{\odot}$, and radius $R_{*}=1.67_{-0.12}^{+0.14}$ R$_{\odot}$. The planetary companion has mass $M_P = 0.867_{-0.061}^{+0.065}$ $M_{J}$, radius $R_P = 1.86_{-0.16}^{+0.18}$ $R_{J}$, surface gravity $\log{g_{P}} = 2.793_{-0.075}^{+0.072}$, and density $\rho_P = 0.167_{-0.038}^{+0.047}$ g cm$^{-3}$. The planet is on a roughly circular orbit with semimajor axis $a = 0.04571_{-0.00084}^{+0.00096}$ AU and eccentricity $e = 0.035_{-0.025}^{+0.050}$. The best-fit linear ephemeris is $T_0 = 2456883.4803 \pm 0.0007$ BJD$_{\rm TDB}$ and $P = 3.24406 \pm 0.00016$ days. This planet is one of the most inflated of all known transiting exoplanets, making it one of the few members of a class of extremely low density, highly-irradiated gas giants. The low stellar $\log{g}$ and large implied radius are supported by stellar density constraints from follow-up light curves, plus an evolutionary and space motion analysis. We also develop a new technique to extract high precision radial velocities from noisy spectra that reduces the observing time needed to confirm transiting planet candidates. This planet boasts deep transits of a bright star, a large inferred atmospheric scale height, and a high equilibrium temperature of $T_{eq}=1675^{+61}_{-55}$ K, assuming zero albedo and perfect heat redistribution, making it one of the best targets for future atmospheric characterization studies.Comment: Submitted to ApJ, feedback is welcom

KELT-10b: The First Transiting Exoplanet from the KELT-South Survey -- A Hot Sub-Jupiter Transiting a V = 10.7 Early G-Star

We report the discovery of KELT-10b, the first transiting exoplanet discovered using the KELT-South telescope. KELT-10b is a highly inflated sub-Jupiter mass planet transiting a relatively bright $V = 10.7$ star (TYC 8378-64-1), with T$_{eff}$ = $5948\pm74$ K, $\log{g}$ = $4.319_{-0.030}^{+0.020}$ and [Fe/H] = $0.09_{-0.10}^{+0.11}$, an inferred mass M$_{*}$ = $1.112_{-0.061}^{+0.055}$ M$_{\odot}$ and radius R$_{*}$ = $1.209_{-0.035}^{+0.047}$ R$_{\odot}$. The planet has a radius R$_{P}$ = $1.399_{-0.049}^{+0.069}$ R$_{J}$ and mass M$_{P}$ = $0.679_{-0.038}^{+0.039}$ M$_{J}$. The planet has an eccentricity consistent with zero and a semi-major axis $a$ = $0.05250_{-0.00097}^{+0.00086}$ AU. The best fitting linear ephemeris is $T_{0}$ = 2457066.72045$\pm$0.00027 BJD$_{TDB}$ and P = 4.1662739$\pm$0.0000063 days. This planet joins a group of highly inflated transiting exoplanets with a radius much larger and a mass much less than those of Jupiter. The planet, which boasts deep transits of 1.4%, has a relatively high equilibrium temperature of T$_{eq}$ = $1377_{-23}^{+28}$ K, assuming zero albedo and perfect heat redistribution. KELT-10b receives an estimated insolation of $0.817_{-0.054}^{+0.068}$ $\times$ 10$^9$ erg s$^{-1}$ cm$^{-2}$, which places it far above the insolation threshold above which hot Jupiters exhibit increasing amounts of radius inflation. Evolutionary analysis of the host star suggests that KELT-10b is unlikely to survive beyond the current subgiant phase, due to a concomitant in-spiral of the planet over the next $\sim$1 Gyr. The planet transits a relatively bright star and exhibits the third largest transit depth of all transiting exoplanets with V $<$ 11 in the southern hemisphere, making it a promising candidate for future atmospheric characterization studies.Comment: 20 pages, 13 figures, 7 tables, accepted for publication in MNRA

Potent Immune Modulation by MEDI6383, an Engineered Human OX40 Ligand IgG4P Fc Fusion Protein.

Ligation of OX40 (CD134, TNFRSF4) on activated T cells by its natural ligand (OX40L, CD252, TNFSF4) enhances cellular survival, proliferation, and effector functions such as cytokine release and cellular cytotoxicity. We engineered a recombinant human OX40L IgG4P Fc fusion protein termed MEDI6383 that assembles into a hexameric structure and exerts potent agonist activity following engagement of OX40. MEDI6383 displayed solution-phase agonist activity that was enhanced when the fusion protein was clustered by Fc gamma receptors (FcγRs) on the surface of adjacent cells. The resulting costimulation of OX40 on T cells induced NFκB promoter activity in OX40-expressing T cells and induced Th1-type cytokine production, proliferation, and resistance to regulatory T cell (Treg)-mediated suppression. MEDI6383 enhanced the cytolytic activity of tumor-reactive T cells and reduced tumor growth in the context of an alloreactive human T cell:tumor cell admix model in immunocompromised mice. Consistent with the role of OX40 costimulation in the expansion of memory T cells, MEDI6383 administered to healthy nonhuman primates elicited peripheral blood CD4 and CD8 central and effector memory T-cell proliferation as well as B-cell proliferation. Together, these results suggest that OX40 agonism has the potential to enhance antitumor immunity in human malignancies

KELT-7b: A hot Jupiter transiting a bright V=8.54 rapidly rotating F-star

We report the discovery of KELT-7b, a transiting hot Jupiter with a mass of $1.28 \pm 0.18$ MJ, radius of $1.53_{-0.047}^{+0.046}$ RJ, and an orbital period of $2.7347749 \pm 0.0000039$ days. The bright host star (HD33643; KELT-7) is an F-star with $V=8.54$, Teff $=6789_{-49}^{+50}$ K, [Fe/H] $=0.139_{-0.081}^{+0.075}$, and $\log{g}=4.149 \pm 0.019$. It has a mass of $1.535_{-0.054}^{+0.066}$ Msun, a radius of $1.732_{-0.045}^{+0.043}$ Rsun, and is the fifth most massive, fifth hottest, and the ninth brightest star known to host a transiting planet. It is also the brightest star around which KELT has discovered a transiting planet. Thus, KELT-7b is an ideal target for detailed characterization given its relatively low surface gravity, high equilibrium temperature, and bright host star. The rapid rotation of the star ($73 \pm 0.5$ km/s) results in a Rossiter-McLaughlin effect with an unusually large amplitude of several hundred m/s. We find that the orbit normal of the planet is likely to be well-aligned with the stellar spin axis, with a projected spin-orbit alignment of $\lambda=9.7 \pm 5.2$ degrees. This is currently the second most rapidly rotating star to have a reflex signal (and thus mass determination) due to a planetary companion measured.Comment: Accepted to The Astronomical Journa