Reliability and usability of tourism climate indices.

Tourism climate indices (TCI) are commonly used to describe the climate conditions suitable for tourism activities, from the planning, investment or daily operations perspectives. A substantial amount of research has been carried out, in particular with respect to new indices formulae adapted to specific tourism products, and parameters and their weighting, taking into account surveys on the stated preferences of tourists, especially in terms of comfort. This paper illustrates another field of research, which seeks to better understand the different sources of uncertainty associated with indices. Indeed, slight differences in formula thresholds, variations in computation methods, and also the use of multimodel ensembles create nuances that affect the ways in which indices projections are usually presented. Firstly, we assess the impact of differences in preference surveys on the definition of indices thresholds, in particular for thermal comfort. Secondly, we compare computation methods for France, showing the need to better specify detailed data sources and their use to ensure the comparability of results. Thirdly, using multimodel ensembles for the Mediterranean basin, we assess the uncertainty inherent in long-term projections, which are used in modelling the economic impact of climate change. This paper argues in favour of a more cautious use of tourism comfort indices, with more consideration given to the robustness of data (validation, debiasing, uncertainty assessment, etc.) and users’ needs, from the climate services perspective.This paper was written by a team participating in the EU FP7 project CLIM-RUN “Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean region Responding Users Needs” (2011–2014)

Second-home owners and sea-level rise: the case of the Languedoc- Roussillon region (France)

International audienceMunicipalities of the Languedoc-Roussillon region (South-eastern France) arehighly vulnerable to climate-change-induced sea-level rise (SLR) due to theirlow altitude and the great attractiveness of the region for tourism. Thisattractiveness has resulted in a very significant development of second homes,which represent half of the housing stock and three quarters of the total capacityfor tourism hospitality. In the context of climate change adaptation measuresrelated to SLR, it is imperative to consider the perceptions of second-homeowners and their place in local governance arrangements. Scientists advocate theimplementation of managed retreat policies to reduce vulnerability by reducingthe exposure of buildings, but both the social acceptability and the economicfeasibility of these policies are very low. We assume that second-home ownershave different perceptions of the risk of inundation and are less involved in thegovernance mechanisms. It is very difficult to mobilise a large number of ownersof small flats who are less concerned with, and less likely to contribute to, policydevelopment, due to their less frequent presence. We studied these issuesthrough a survey in three municipalities, based on a sample of 318 residents and163 second-home owners faced with inundation risk. We observed a lowersensitivity to risk and a stronger attachment to homes on the part of secondhomeowners (compared to residents). We also discuss, in terms of equity andefficiency, the impact of their low level of engagement in governance mechanisms