Field theory of directed percolation with long-range spreading

It is well established that the phase transition between survival and extinction in spreading models with short-range interactions is generically associated with the directed percolation (DP) universality class. In many realistic spreading processes, however, interactions are long ranged and well described by L\'{e}vy-flights, i.e., by a probability distribution that decays in $d$ dimensions with distance $r$ as $r^{-d-\sigma}$. We employ the powerful methods of renormalized field theory to study DP with such long range, L\'{e}vy-flight spreading in some depth. Our results unambiguously corroborate earlier findings that there are four renormalization group fixed points corresponding to, respectively, short-range Gaussian, L\'{e}vy Gaussian, short-range DP and L\'{e}vy DP, and that there are four lines in the $(\sigma, d)$ plane which separate the stability regions of these fixed points. When the stability line between short-range DP and L\'{e}vy DP is crossed, all critical exponents change continuously. We calculate the exponents describing L\'{e}vy DP to second order in $\epsilon$-expansion, and we compare our analytical results to the results of existing numerical simulations. Furthermore, we calculate the leading logarithmic corrections for several dynamical observables.Comment: 12 pages, 3 figure

Electrophysiological correlates of high-level perception during spatial navigation

We studied the electrophysiological basis of object recognition by recording scalp\ud electroencephalograms while participants played a virtual-reality taxi driver game.\ud Participants searched for passengers and stores during virtual navigation in simulated\ud towns. We compared oscillatory brain activity in response to store views that were targets or\ud nontargets (during store search) or neutral (during passenger search). Even though store\ud category was solely defined by task context (rather than by sensory cues), frontal ...\ud \u

Generalizability of Blood Pressure Lowering Trials to Older Patients: Cross‐Sectional Analysis

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Randomized controlled trials are used to inform clinical guidelines on the management of hypertension in older adults, but it is unclear to what extent these trials represent the general population attending routine clinical practice. This study aimed to define the proportion and characteristics of patients eligible for hypertension trials conducted in older people. DESIGN: Cross‐sectional study. SETTING: A total of 24 general practices in England. PARTICIPANTS: Anonymized electronic health record data from all individuals aged 80 and older. MEASUREMENTS: Descriptive statistics were used to define the proportion and characteristics of patients eligible for two previous medication intensification trials (HYVET, SPRINT) and one medication reduction trial (OPTiMISE). A logistic regression model was constructed to estimate predictors of eligibility for each trial. RESULTS: Of 15,376 patients identified, 268 (1.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.5–2.0%), 5,290 (34.4%; 95%CI = 33.7–35.2%), and 3,940 (25.6%; 95%CI = 24.9–26.3%) were eligible for the HYVET, SPRINT, and OPTiMISE trials, respectively. Between 5.6% and 30.7% of exclusions from each trial were due to eligibility criteria excluding those with high or uncontrolled blood pressure. Frailty (odds ratio [OR] = .44; 95%CI = .36–.54 [OPTiMISE]), cardiovascular polypharmacy (OR = .61; 95%CI = .55–.68 [SPRINT]) and multimorbidity (OR = .72; 95%CI = .64–.82 [SPRINT]) were associated with a lower likelihood of being eligible for one or more of the trials. CONCLUSION: A possible unintended consequence of blood pressure criteria used by trials attempting to answer different primary questions is that for many older patients, no trial evidence exists to inform treatment decisions in routine practice. Caution should be exercised when applying results from existing trials to patients with frailty or multimorbidity

Interferon-λ rs12979860 genotype and liver fibrosis in viral and non-viral chronic liver disease

Tissue fibrosis is a core pathologic process that contributes to mortality in ∼45% of the population and is likely to be influenced by the host genetic architecture. Here we demonstrate, using liver disease as a model, that a single-nucleotide polymorphism (rs12979860) in the intronic region of interferon-λ4 (IFNL4) is a strong predictor of fibrosis in an aetiology-independent manner. In a cohort of 4,172 patients, including 3,129 with chronic hepatitis C (CHC), 555 with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and 488 with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), those with rs12979860CC have greater hepatic inflammation and fibrosis. In CHC, those with rs12979860CC also have greater stage-constant and stage-specific fibrosis progression rates (P<0.0001 for all). The impact of rs12979860 genotypes on fibrosis is maximal in young females, especially those with HCV genotype 3. These findings establish rs12979860 genotype as a strong aetiology-independent predictor of tissue inflammation and fibrosis

A simple model to quantitatively account for periodic outbreaks of the measles in the Dutch Bible Belt

In the Netherlands there has been nationwide vaccination against the measles since 1976. However, in small clustered communities of orthodox Protestants there is widespread refusal of the vaccine. After 1976, three large outbreaks with about 3000 reported cases of the measles have occurred among these orthodox Protestants. The outbreaks appear to occur about every twelve years. We show how a simple Kermack-McKendrick-like model can quantitatively account for the periodic outbreaks. Approximate analytic formulae to connect the period, size, and outbreak duration are derived. With an enhanced model we take the latency period in account. We also expand the model to follow how different age groups are affected. Like other researchers using other methods, we conclude that large scale underreporting of the disease must occur

A Minimal Model for Multiple Epidemics and Immunity Spreading

Pathogens and parasites are ubiquitous in the living world, being limited only by availability of suitable hosts. The ability to transmit a particular disease depends on competing infections as well as on the status of host immunity. Multiple diseases compete for the same resource and their fate is coupled to each other. Such couplings have many facets, for example cross-immunization between related influenza strains, mutual inhibition by killing the host, or possible even a mutual catalytic effect if host immunity is impaired. We here introduce a minimal model for an unlimited number of unrelated pathogens whose interaction is simplified to simple mutual exclusion. The model incorporates an ongoing development of host immunity to past diseases, while leaving the system open for emergence of new diseases. The model exhibits a rich dynamical behavior with interacting infection waves, leaving broad trails of immunization in the host population. This obtained immunization pattern depends only on the system size and on the mutation rate that initiates new diseases