A database and tool for boundary conditions for regional air quality modeling: description and evaluation

Transported air pollutants receive increasing attention as regulations tighten and global concentrations increase. The need to represent international transport in regional air quality assessments requires improved representation of boundary concentrations. Currently available observations are too sparse vertically to provide boundary information, particularly for ozone precursors, but global simulations can be used to generate spatially and temporally varying lateral boundary conditions (LBC). This study presents a public database of global simulations designed and evaluated for use as LBC for air quality models (AQMs). The database covers the contiguous United States (CONUS) for the years 2001–2010 and contains hourly varying concentrations of ozone, aerosols, and their precursors. The database is complemented by a tool for configuring the global results as inputs to regional scale models (e.g., Community Multiscale Air Quality or Comprehensive Air quality Model with extensions). This study also presents an example application based on the CONUS domain, which is evaluated against satellite retrieved ozone and carbon monoxide vertical profiles. The results show performance is largely within uncertainty estimates for ozone from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument and carbon monoxide from the Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT), but there were some notable biases compared with Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) ozone. Compared with TES, our ozone predictions are high-biased in the upper troposphere, particularly in the south during January. This publication documents the global simulation database, the tool for conversion to LBC, and the evaluation of concentrations on the boundaries. This documentation is intended to support applications that require representation of long-range transport of air pollutants

Modelling net-zero emissions energy systems requires a change in approach

Energy modelling can assist national decision makers in determining strategies that achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, three key challenges for the modelling community are emerging under this radical climate target that needs to be recognized and addressed. A first challenge is the need to represent new mitigation options not currently represented in many energy models. We emphasize here the under representation of end-use sector demand-side options due to the traditional supply side focus of many energy models, along with issues surrounding robustness in deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options. A second challenge concerns the types of models used. We highlight doubts about whether current models provide sufficient relevant insights on system feasibility, actor behaviour, and policy effectiveness. A third challenge concerns how models are applied for policy analyses. Priorities include the need for expanding scenario thinking to incorporate a wider range of uncertainty factors, providing insights on target setting, alignment with broader policy objectives, and improving engagement and transparency of approaches. There is a significant risk that without reconsidering energy modelling approaches, the role that the modelling community can play in providing effective decision support may be reduced. Such support is critical, as countries seek to develop new Nationally Determined Contributions and longer-term strategies over the next few years

Modelling net-zero emissions energy systems requires a change in approach

Energy modelling can assist national decision makers in determining strategies that achieve net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, three key challenges for the modelling community are emerging under this radical climate target that needs to be recognized and addressed. A first challenge is the need to represent new mitigation options not currently represented in many energy models. We emphasize here the under representation of end-use sector demand-side options due to the traditional supply side focus of many energy models, along with issues surrounding robustness in deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) options. A second challenge concerns the types of models used. We highlight doubts about whether current models provide sufficient relevant insights on system feasibility, actor behaviour, and policy effectiveness. A third challenge concerns how models are applied for policy analyses. Priorities include the need for expanding scenario thinking to incorporate a wider range of uncertainty factors, providing insights on target setting, alignment with broader policy objectives, and improving engagement and transparency of approaches. There is a significant risk that without reconsidering energy modelling approaches, the role that the modelling community can play in providing effective decision support may be reduced. Such support is critical, as countries seek to develop new Nationally Determined Contributions and longer-term strategies over the next few years

Minimal Model for Sand Dunes

We propose a minimal model for aeolian sand dunes. It combines an analytical description of the turbulent wind velocity field above the dune with a continuum saltation model that allows for saturation transients in the sand flux. The model provides a qualitative understanding of important features of real dunes, such as their longitudinal shape and aspect ratio, the formation of a slip face, the breaking of scale invariance, and the existence of a minimum dune size.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, replaced with publishd versio

Acidity and the multiphase chemistry of atmospheric aqueous particles and clouds

The acidity of aqueous atmospheric solutions is a key parameter driving both the partitioning of semi-volatile acidic and basic trace gases and their aqueous-phase chemistry. In addition, the acidity of atmospheric aqueous phases, e.g., deliquesced aerosol particles, cloud, and fog droplets, is also dictated by aqueous-phase chemistry. These feedbacks between acidity and chemistry have crucial implications for the tropospheric lifetime of air pollutants, atmospheric composition, deposition to terrestrial and oceanic ecosystems, visibility, climate, and human health. Atmospheric research has made substantial progress in understanding feedbacks between acidity and multiphase chemistry during recent decades. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge on these feedbacks with a focus on aerosol and cloud systems, which involve both inorganic and organic aqueous-phase chemistry. Here, we describe the impacts of acidity on the phase partitioning of acidic and basic gases and buffering phenomena. Next, we review feedbacks of different acidity regimes on key chemical reaction mechanisms and kinetics, as well as uncertainties and chemical subsystems with incomplete information. Finally, we discuss atmospheric implications and highlight the need for future investigations, particularly with respect to reducing emissions of key acid precursors in a changing world, and the need for advancements in field and laboratory measurements and model tools

A Recombinant Blood-Stage Malaria Vaccine Reduces Plasmodium falciparum Density and Exerts Selective Pressure on Parasite Populations in a Phase 1-2b Trial in Papua New Guinea

The malaria vaccine Combination B comprises recombinant Plasmodium falciparum ring-infected erythrocyte surface antigen and 2 merozoite surface proteins (MSP1 and MSP2) formulated in oil-based adjuvant. A phase 1-2b double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial in 120 children (5-9 years old) in Papua New Guinea demonstrated a 62% (95% confidence limits: 13%, 84%) reduction in parasite density in children not pretreated with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. Vaccinees had a lower prevalence of parasites carrying the MSP2-3D7 allelic form (corresponding to that in the vaccine) and a higher incidence of morbid episodes associated with FC27-type parasites. These results demonstrate functional activity of Combination B against P. falciparum in individuals with previous malaria exposure. The specific effects on parasites with particular msp2 genotypes suggest that the MSP2 component, at least in part, accounted for the activity. The vaccine-induced selection pressure exerted on the parasites and its consequences for morbidity strongly argue for developing vaccines comprising conserved antigens and/or multiple components covering all important allelic type

Patterns and Collective Behavior in Granular Media: Theoretical Concepts

Granular materials are ubiquitous in our daily lives. While they have been a subject of intensive engineering research for centuries, in the last decade granular matter attracted significant attention of physicists. Yet despite a major efforts by many groups, the theoretical description of granular systems remains largely a plethora of different, often contradicting concepts and approaches. Authors give an overview of various theoretical models emerged in the physics of granular matter, with the focus on the onset of collective behavior and pattern formation. Their aim is two-fold: to identify general principles common for granular systems and other complex non-equilibrium systems, and to elucidate important distinctions between collective behavior in granular and continuum pattern-forming systems.Comment: Submitted to Reviews of Modern Physics. Full text with figures (2Mb pdf) avaliable at http://mti.msd.anl.gov/AransonTsimringReview/aranson_tsimring.pdf Community responce is appreciated. Comments/suggestions send to [email protected]

Carrying out a multi-model integrated assessment of European energy transition pathways: Challenges and benefits

With the publication of the European Green Deal, the European Union has committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. The envisaged reductions of direct greenhouse gases emissions are seen as technically feasible, but if a wrong path is pursued, significant unintended impacts across borders, sectors, societies and ecosystems may follow. Without the insights gained from an impact assessment framework reaching beyond the techno-economic perspective, the pursuit of direct emission reductions may lead to counterproductive outcomes in the long run. We discuss the opportunities and challenges related to the creation and use of an integrated assessment framework built to inform the European Commission on the path to decarbonisation. The framework is peculiar in that it goes beyond existing ones in its scope, depth and cross-scale coverage, by use of numerous specialised models and case studies. We find challenges of consistency that can be overcome by linking modelling tools iteratively in some cases, harmonising modelling assumptions in others, comparing model outputs in others. We find the highest added value of the framework in additional insights it provides on the technical feasibility of decarbonisation pathways, on vulnerability aspects and on unintended environmental and health impacts on national and sub-national scale.(c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)