Política econômica e credibilidade: evidências empíricas e técnicas econométricas [Economic policy and credibility: empirical evidence and econometric techniques]

This article presents a review of empirical literature regarding the credibility of economic policy, dedicating special attention to the econometric techniques used. The literature researched is comprised of two groups based on the type of econometric technique employed. However, within the main groups, reference is made to the four ways of conducting monetary policy currently being used in the world today: monetary aggregate targets, exchange rate peg, inflation targets, and preventive monetary policy with no explicit nominal peg. This text also refers to underlying theoretical models, when applicable. Brazilian empirical literature on this subject is reviewed in its own separate section.credibility, monetary policy, econometric models

Propriedades físicas e químicas do solo em áreas com sistemas produtivos e mata na região da Zona da Mata mineira.

Tendo em vista o potencial de produção e a extensão de área que ocupam os Latossolos, é de grande interesse estabelecer sistemas de manejo que não modifiquem o solo de forma a comprometer sua sustentabilidade. Nesse sentido, avaliaram-se as alterações em propriedades físicas e químicas de um Latossolo sob diferentes sistemas agrícolas na Zona da Mata mineira. Foram avaliadas áreas sob laranja, cana, pastagem e mata: as de laranja e pastagem têm mais de 20 anos de uso; a de cana é anterior (100 anos). A cana é remanescente de uso histórico por aproximadamente 120 anos. A amostragem foi realizada em trincheiras, nas profundidades de 0,0 a 0,2 e 0,2 a 0,4 m. Foram analisadas as características químicas: matéria orgânica do solo (MOS), pH em H2O, P disponível, Ca2+, Mg2+, K+, Al3+, H + Al, soma de bases (SB), CTC efetiva e total (t) e saturação por bases (V), e P-remanescente. As características físicas analisadas foram: textura, densidade de partículas, densidade do solo, porosidade total, curva de retenção de água, resistência do solo à penetração e estabilidade de agregados em água, bem como a relação capacidade de campo/porosidade total (CC/PT). Para análise dos dados, consideraram-se os usos agrícolas como tratamentos, em um delineamento inteiramente casualizado, na análise de variância de cada profundidade separadamente. Os sistemas agrícolas com laranjeira e canavial melhoraram a condição química do solo, aumentando os teores de nutrientes e diminuindo o Al3+ do complexo de troca, porém apresentaram redução dos teores de MOS e níveis intermediários de degradação física. O sistema com pastagem apresentou baixa fertilidade e caráter distrófico, redução acentuada do teor de MOS e degradação física mais avançada, evidenciada pelo aumento da densidade do solo e resistência à penetração, bem como redução da porosidade total e da estabilidade de agregados

Instalação da lavoura de soja: época, cultivares, espaçamento e população de plantas.

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Risk factors for human papilomavirus infection among women in Portugal: the CLEOPATRE Portugal Study

OBJECTIVE: Human papillomavirus (HPV) is responsible for a range of diseases, including cervical cancer. The primary objectives of the CLEOPATRE Portugal study were to estimate the overall and age-stratified prevalence of cervical HPV infection and to assess HPV prevalence and type-specific distribution by cytological results among women aged 18 to 64 years, who reside in mainland Portugal. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This cross-sectional population-based study recruited women aged 18 to 64 years, according to an age-stratified sampling strategy, who attended gynecology/obstetrics or sexually transmitted disease clinics across the 5 regional health administrations in mainland Portugal between 2008 and 2009. Liquid-based cytology samples were collected and analyzed centrally for HPV genotyping (clinical array HPV 2 assay) and cytology. Prevalence estimates were adjusted for age using 2007 Portuguese census data. RESULTS: A total of 2326 women were included in the study. The overall prevalence of HPV infection in the study was 19.4% (95% confidence interval, 17.8%-21.0%), with the highest prevalence in women aged 18 to 24 years. High-risk HPV types were detected in 76.5% of infections, of which 36.6% involved multiple types. The commonest high-risk type was HPV-16. At least 1 of the HPV types 6/11/16/18 was detected in 32.6% of infections. The HPV prevalence in normal cytology samples was 16.5%. There was a statistically significant association between high-risk infection and cytological abnormalities (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first population-based study to quantify and describe cervical HPV infection in mainland Portugal. This study provides baseline data for future assessment of the impact of HPV vaccination programs

Boom, slump, sudden stops, recovery, and policy options. Portugal and the Euro

Over the past 20 years, Portugal has gone through a boom, a slump, a sud- den stop, and now a recovery. Unemployment has decreased, but remains high, and output is still far below potential. Competitiveness has improved, but more is needed to keep the current account in check as the economy recovers. Private and public debt are high, both legacies of the boom, the slump and the sudden stop. Productiv- ity growth remains low. Because of high debt and low growth, the recovery remains fragile. We review the history and the main mechanisms at work. We then review a number of policy options, from fiscal consolidation to fiscal expansion, cleaning up of non-performing loans, labor market reforms, product market reforms, and euro exit. We argue that at this point, the main focus of macroeconomic policy should be twofold. The first is the treatment of non-performing loans, the second is product market reforms and reforms aimed at increasing micro-flexibility in the labor market. Symmetrically, we also argue that at this point, some policies would be undesirable, among them faster fiscal consolidation, measures aimed at decreasing nominal wages and prices, and euro exit.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

A CREDIBILIDADE DA POLÍTICA ECONÔMICA: UMA REVISÃO CRÍTICA DA TEORIA

O objetivo deste artigo é fazer uma revisão crítica da literatura teórica sobre a credibilidade da política econômica. Para tanto, além da introdução, o artigo divide-se em três partes: na primeira, analisa-se por que o problema da credibilidade é importante para a economia e para os policymakers; na segunda, avaliam-se as formas de se enfrentar ou resolver este problema; por último, na terceira, apresentam-se as conclusões.This paper presents a critical survey of the theoretical literature on credibility aspects of economic policy. We discuss why is credibility important for economic policy and mostly how can one solve the time inconsistency problem of the optimal economic policy

Decoding negative affect personality trait from patterns of brain activation to threat stimuli

INTRODUCTION: Pattern recognition analysis (PRA) applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) has been used to decode cognitive processes and identify possible biomarkers for mental illness. In the present study, we investigated whether the positive affect (PA) or negative affect (NA) personality traits could be decoded from patterns of brain activation in response to a human threat using a healthy sample. METHODS: fMRI data from 34 volunteers (15 women) were acquired during a simple motor task while the volunteers viewed a set of threat stimuli that were directed either toward them or away from them and matched neutral pictures. For each participant, contrast images from a General Linear Model (GLM) between the threat versus neutral stimuli defined the spatial patterns used as input to the regression model. We applied a multiple kernel learning (MKL) regression combining information from different brain regions hierarchically in a whole brain model to decode the NA and PA from patterns of brain activation in response to threat stimuli. RESULTS: The MKL model was able to decode NA but not PA from the contrast images between threat stimuli directed away versus neutral with a significance above chance. The correlation and the mean squared error (MSE) between predicted and actual NA were 0.52 (p-value=0.01) and 24.43 (p-value=0.01), respectively. The MKL pattern regression model identified a network with 37 regions that contributed to the predictions. Some of the regions were related to perception (e.g., occipital and temporal regions) while others were related to emotional evaluation (e.g., caudate and prefrontal regions). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that there was an interaction between the individuals' NA and the brain response to the threat stimuli directed away, which enabled the MKL model to decode NA from the brain patterns. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence that PRA can be used to decode a personality trait from patterns of brain activation during emotional contexts

Upper bounds on the superfluid stiffness and superconducting TcT_c: Applications to twisted-bilayer graphene and ultra-cold Fermi gases

Understanding the material parameters that control the superconducting transition temperature $T_c$ is a problem of fundamental importance. In many novel superconductors, phase fluctuations determine $T_c$, rather than the collapse of the pairing amplitude. We derive rigorous upper bounds on the superfluid phase stiffness for multi-band systems, valid in any dimension. This in turn leads to an upper bound on $T_c$ in two dimensions (2D), which holds irrespective of pairing mechanism, interaction strength, or order-parameter symmetry. Our bound is particularly useful for the strongly correlated regime of low-density and narrow-band systems, where mean field theory fails. For a simple parabolic band in 2D with Fermi energy $E_F$, we find that $k_BT_c \leq E_F/8$, an exact result that has direct implications for the 2D BCS-BEC crossover in ultra-cold Fermi gases. Applying our multi-band bound to magic-angle twisted bilayer graphene (MA-TBG), we find that band structure results constrain the maximum $T_c$ to be close to the experimentally observed value. Finally, we discuss the question of deriving rigorous upper bounds on $T_c$ in 3D.Comment: Revised figures, includes estimates from another model of MA-TBG, published version of manuscrip