Occurrence and mechanisms of extreme winter air temperatures in the Arctic and surrounding continents

Peer reviewe

Evaluation of three numerical weather prediction models for the Weddell Sea region for the Austral winter 2013

It is widely recognized that numerical weather prediction (NWP) results for the Antarctic are relatively poor compared to the mid-latitudes. In this study, we evaluate output from three operational NWP systems: the ECMWF, Global Forecast System (GFS) and Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), for the Austral winter (June-August) of 2013 for the Weddell Sea region, paying special attention to regional patterns of error statistics. This is the first evaluation of NWP systems over the Southern Ocean that also addresses the accuracy of forecasted vertical profiles. In the evaluation, we use data from land- and ship-based automatic weather stations (AWS) and radiosoundings. While the ECMWF and AMPS forecasts are on average biased cold and dry near the surface, the GFS forecasts are on average biased warm and moist. The near-surface wind speed is on average overestimated by the AMPS forecasts, whereas it is slightly underestimated by the forecasts of the other two NWP systems. Among the variables investigated, all three NWP systems forecast the near-surface specific humidity most accurately, followed by the temperature and then the wind speed. The forecast quality for the near-surface and upper-air wind speed degrades the most rapidly with increasing lead time, compared to the other variables. ECMWF is the overall best NWP system when compared against both the near-surface and upper-air observations, followed by AMPS and then GFS. The generally poorest model performance is found in locations with complex terrain along the coast of the Antarctic continent, and the best over the ocean.publishedVersio

Ceramide stearic to palmitic acid ratio predicts incident diabetes

Aims/hypothesis Ceramide lipids have a role in the development of insulin resistance, diabetes and risk of cardiovascular disease. Here we investigated four ceramides and their ratios to find the best predictors of incident diabetes. Methods A validated mass-spectrometric method was applied to measure Cer(d18:1/16:0), Cer(d18:1/18:0), Cer(d18:1/24:0) and Cer(d18:1/24:1) from serum or plasma samples. These ceramides were analysed in a population-based risk factor study (FINRISK 2002, n = 8045), in a cohort of participants undergoing elective coronary angiography for suspected stable angina pectoris (Western Norway Coronary Angiography Cohort [WECAC], n = 3344) and in an intervention trial investigating improved methods of lifestyle modification for individuals at high risk of the metabolic syndrome (Prevent Metabolic Syndrome [PrevMetSyn], n = 371). Diabetes risk score models were developed to estimate the 10 year risk of incident diabetes. Results Analysis in FINRISK 2002 showed that the Cer(d18:1/18:0)/Cer(d18:1/16:0) ceramide ratio was predictive of incident diabetes (HR per SD 2.23, 95% CI 2.05, 2.42), and remained significant after adjustment for several risk factors, including BMI, fasting glucose and HbA1c (HR 1.34, 95% CI 1.14, 1.57). The finding was validated in the WECAC study (unadjusted HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.53, 2.14; adjusted HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.16, 1.66). In the intervention trial, the ceramide ratio and diabetes risk scores significantly decreased in individuals who had 5% or more weight loss. Conclusions/interpretation The Cer(d18:1/18:0)/Cer(d18:1/16:0) ratio is an independent predictive biomarker for incident diabetes, and may be modulated by lifestyle intervention.publishedVersio

Roadmap for implementing environmental DNA (eDNA) and other molecular monitoring methods in Finland – Vision and action plan for 2022–2025

Roadmap for implementing environmental DNA (eDNA) and other molecular monitoring methods in Finland – Vision and Action Plan for 2022-2025 Technological development in molecular methodology has been extremely fast in the past two decades, and groundbreaking new approaches have been introduced. It is now possible to detect and quantify DNA or RNA of target species or even map the whole species community in environmental samples of water, sediment, soil, air or assemblages of whole organisms. Moreover, the costs of high-throughput sequencing and other advanced molecular methods have decreased and methodological pipelines from sampling to data analysis developed sufficiently to allow large-scale, routine application of the new methods in environmental monitoring. This presents a huge opportunity to improve the coverage, accuracy and cost-efficiency of monitoring, enabling a much more complete picture of biodiversity and the state of the environment and their trends. As the new European Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 and other international policies to halt biodiversity loss and the degradation of habitats are translated into concrete measures, the quality of the monitoring data will play a crucial role in determining their success or failure. In this roadmap commissioned by the Finnish Ministry of the Environment, we assess the state-of-the-art in molecular monitoring methods in Finland within the international context, identify challenges and development areas that remain to be addressed and propose an action plan for promoting the coordinated implementation of molecular methods in national monitoring programs. Apart from the most recent scientific literature, our analysis is based on survey results, direct enquiries and interviews. Participation of the national community of experts from different sectors was enabled and invited at several stages of the roadmap preparation. Internationally, molecular monitoring methods are being actively developed and are routinely implemented in monitoring across different taxa and ecosystems. In Finland, molecular monitoring methods have been tested and piloted by all major institutions responsible for environmental monitoring, and the methods are already applied routinely in the monitoring of individual game species such as the wolf and European and Canadian beaver. However, other areas such as the monitoring of biodiversity, threatened species, non-mammalian invasive species or emerging plant or animal pests remain less developed, and national efforts and expertise are scattered across different organizations. Funding and know-how are perceived as the most important factors limiting molecular monitoring method implementation. We estimate that extensive, routine implementation of a wide range of molecular monitoring methods is conceivable in Finland before 2030. As the primary development areas for reaching this goal, we identify (i) international coordination and standard development, (ii) networking across sectors, (iii) education, (iv) infrastructure, (v) reference sequence libraries and the mapping of whole genomes, and (vi) modelling and analysis tool development. For concrete actions in 2022–2025, we propose (1) a cross-governmental funding instrument, (2) a permanent working group responsible for national and international coordination, (3) a national network and (4) an online platform to enhance interaction and knowledge transfer, as well as (5) a national data management system with collectively agreed data and metadata formats and standards. ---------- Kansallinen tiekartta ympäristö-DNA:n ja muiden molekyylibiologisten seurantamenetelmien käyttöönotolle – visio ja toimenpidesuunnitelma vuosille 2022-2025 Molekyylibiologisten menetelmien teknologinen kehitys on ollut ennennäkemättömän nopeaa kahden viime vuosikymmenen aikana. Uudet menetelmät mahdollistavat kohdelajien DNA:n tai RNA:n havaitsemisen ja runsausmäärityksen tai koko eliöyhteisön kartoittamisen esimerkiksi vesi-, sedimentti-, maaperä- tai ilmanäytteistä tai kokonaisia yksilöitä sisältävistä kokoomanäytteistä. Massiivisen rinnakkaissekvensoinnin ja muiden menetelmien kustannukset ovat merkittävästi laskeneet ja menetelmäketjut näytteenotosta tulosten tulkintaan kehittyneet asteelle, joka mahdollistaa niiden laajamittaisen, rutiininomaisen käytön ympäristön seurannassa. Uusien menetelmien avulla voimme parantaa seurannan kattavuutta, tarkkuutta ja kustannustehokkuutta ja siten täydentää seurannan kautta muodostuvaa kuvaa luonnon monimuotoisuudesta ja sen muutoksista. Tälle tiedolle on suuri tarve – laadukas seuranta on keskeinen edellytys sille, että EU:n uuden biodiversiteettistrategian ja muiden luontokadon ja elinympäristöjen tilan huonontumisen pysäyttämiseen tähtäävien kansainvälisten sitoumusten toimeenpano onnistuu. Tässä ympäristöministeriön tilaamassa tiekartassa arvioimme molekyylibiologisten seurantamenetelmien nykytilaa Suomessa osana laajempaa kansainvälistä kenttää, tunnistamme huomiota vaativia haasteita ja kehityskohteita ja ehdotamme konkreettisia toimenpiteitä molekyylibiologisten seurantamenetelmien koordinoidun käyttöönoton edistämiseksi lähivuosien aikana. Selvityksemme perustuu uusimman tieteellisen kirjallisuuden lisäksi kyselytutkimukseen sekä suoriin tiedusteluihin ja haastatteluihin. Yhteiskunnan eri sektoreita edustava kansallinen asiantuntijayhteisö osallistui tiekartan valmisteluun työn eri vaiheissa. Molekyylibiologisia seurantamenetelmiä kehitetään parhaillaan aktiivisesti ympäri maailmaa eri eliöryhmille ja ekosysteemeille, ja yksittäisiä menetelmiä on useissa maissa otettu myös rutiininomaiseen käyttöön. Suomessa menetelmiä on kehitetty ja pilotoitu kaikissa keskeisissä ympäristön seurantaa koordinoivissa laitoksissa, ja yksittäisten riistaeläinten kuten suden ja kanadan- ja euroopanmajavan seurannassa ne ovat jo rutiinikäytössä. Biodiversiteetin, uhanalaisten lajien, vieraslajien (nisäkkäitä lukuun ottamatta) ja muiden haitallisten lajien kansallisessa seurannassa molekyylibiologisten menetelmien käyttö on kuitenkin vielä kokeiluasteella, ja kehittämishankkeiden ja asiantuntijuuden kenttä on hajanainen. Riittämätöntä rahoitusta ja osaamista pidetään alan asiantuntijoiden keskuudessa tärkeimpinä menetelmien käyttöönottoa rajoittavina tekijöinä. Arviomme mukaan laaja kirjo molekyylibiologisia seurantamenetelmiä olisi mahdollista ottaa laajamittaiseen rutiininomaiseen käyttöön vuoteen 2030 mennessä. Tärkeimmiksi kehityskohteiksi nousivat (i) kansainvälinen koordinaatio ja menetelmien standardointi, (ii) organisaatioiden ja sektoreiden välinen verkostoituminen, (iii) koulutus, (iv) infrastruktuuri, (v) referenssisekvenssikirjastot ja kokonaisten genomien kartoittaminen sekä (vi) malli- ja analyysityökalujen kehittäminen. Konkreettisiksi toimenpiteiksi vuosille 2022-2025 esitämme (1) poikkihallinnollista rahoitusohjelmaa molekyylibiologisten seurantamenetelmien käyttöönottoa edistäville tutkimus- ja kehityshankkeille, (2) pysyvää työryhmää kansallisen ja kansainvälisen koordinaation edistämiseksi, (3) olemassa olevan kansallisen asiantuntijaverkoston laajentamista, (4) internet-pohjaista alustaa vuorovaikutuksen ja tiedonjaon tehostamiseksi sekä (5) kansallista, yhdessä sovittuja data- ja metadatastandardeja noudattavaa molekyylibiologisten seuranta-aineistojen tiedonhallintajärjestelmää

Roadmap for implementing environmental DNA (eDNA) and other molecular monitoring methods in Finland–Vision and action plan for 2022–2025

Technological development in molecular methodology has been extremely fast in the past two decades, and groundbreaking new approaches have been introduced. It is now possible to detect and quantify DNA or RNA of target species or even map the whole species community in environmental samples of water, sediment, soil, air or assemblages of whole organisms. Moreover, the costs of high-throughput sequencing and other advanced molecular methods have decreased and methodological pipelines from sampling to data analysis developed sufficiently to allow large-scale, routine application of the new methods in environmental monitoring. This presents a huge opportunity to improve the coverage, accuracy and cost-efficiency of monitoring, enabling a much more complete picture of biodiversity and the state of the environment and their trends. As the new European Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 and other international policies to halt biodiversity loss and the degradation of habitats are translated into concrete measures, the quality of the monitoring data will play a crucial role in determining their success or failure. In this roadmap commissioned by the Finnish Ministry of the Environment, we assess the state-ofthe-art in molecular monitoring methods in Finland within the international context, identify challenges and development areas that remain to be addressed and propose an action plan for promoting the coordinated implementation of molecular methods in national monitoring programs. Apart from the most recent scientific literature, our analysis is based on survey results, direct enquiries and interviews. Participation of the national community of experts from different sectors was enabled and invited at several stages of the roadmap preparation. Internationally, molecular monitoring methods are being actively developed and are routinely implemented in monitoring across different taxa and ecosystems. In Finland, molecular monitoring methods have been tested and piloted by all major institutions responsible for environmental monitoring, and the methods are already applied routinely in the monitoring of individual game species such as the wolf and European and Canadian beaver. However, other areas such as the monitoring of biodiversity, threatened species, non-mammalian invasive species or emerging plant or animal pests remain less developed, and national efforts and expertise are scattered across different organizations. Funding and know-how are perceived as the most important factors limiting molecular monitoring method implementation. We estimate that extensive, routine implementation of a wide range of molecular monitoring methods is conceivable in Finland before 2030. As the primary development areas for reaching this goal, we identify (i) international coordination and standard development, (ii) networking across sectors, (iii) education, (iv) infrastructure, (v) reference sequence libraries and the mapping of whole genomes, and (vi) modelling and analysis tool development. For concrete actions in 2022–2025, we propose (1) a cross-governmental funding instrument, (2) a permanent working group responsible for national and international coordination, (3) a national network and (4) an online platform to enhance interaction and knowledge transfer, as well as (5) a national data management system with collectively agreed data and metadata formats and standards

Evaluation of three numerical weather prediction models for the Weddell Sea region for the Austral winter 2013

It is widely recognized that numerical weather prediction (NWP) results for the Antarctic are relatively poor compared to the mid-latitudes. In this study, we evaluate output from three operational NWP systems: the ECMWF, Global Forecast System (GFS) and Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS), for the Austral winter (June-August) of 2013 for the Weddell Sea region, paying special attention to regional patterns of error statistics. This is the first evaluation of NWP systems over the Southern Ocean that also addresses the accuracy of forecasted vertical profiles. In the evaluation, we use data from land- and ship-based automatic weather stations (AWS) and radiosoundings. While the ECMWF and AMPS forecasts are on average biased cold and dry near the surface, the GFS forecasts are on average biased warm and moist. The near-surface wind speed is on average overestimated by the AMPS forecasts, whereas it is slightly underestimated by the forecasts of the other two NWP systems. Among the variables investigated, all three NWP systems forecast the near-surface specific humidity most accurately, followed by the temperature and then the wind speed. The forecast quality for the near-surface and upper-air wind speed degrades the most rapidly with increasing lead time, compared to the other variables. ECMWF is the overall best NWP system when compared against both the near-surface and upper-air observations, followed by AMPS and then GFS. The generally poorest model performance is found in locations with complex terrain along the coast of the Antarctic continent, and the best over the ocean

Cold wintertime air masses over Europe: where do they come from and how do they form?

Despite the general warming trend, wintertime cold-air outbreaks in Europe have remained nearly as extreme and as common as decades ago. In this study, we identify six principal 850 hPa cold anomaly types over Europe in 1979–2020 using self-organizing maps (SOMs). Based on extensive analysis of atmospheric large-scale circulation patterns combined with nearly 2 million kinematic backward trajectories, we show the origins and contributions of various physical processes to the formation of cold wintertime 850 hPa air masses. The location of the cold anomaly region is closely tied to the location of blocking; if the block is located farther to the east, the cold anomaly is also displaced eastwards. Considering air mass evolution along the trajectories, the air parcels are typically initially (5–10 d before) colder than at their arrival in Europe, but initially warmer air parcels also sometimes lead to cold anomalies over Europe. Most commonly the effect of adiabatic warming on the temperature anomalies is overcompensated for by advection from regions that are climatologically colder than the target region, supported by diabatic cooling along the pathway. However, there are regional differences: cold anomalies over western Europe and southeastern Europe are dominantly caused by advection and over eastern Europe by both advective and diabatic processes. The decadal-scale warming in the site of air mass origin has been partly compensated for by enhanced diabatic (radiative) cooling along the pathway to Europe. There have also been decadal changes in large-scale circulation patterns and air mass origin. Our results suggest that understanding future changes in cold extremes will require in-depth analyses of both large-scale circulation and the physical (adiabatic and diabatic) processes