Ergebnisse einer quantitativen Bevölkerungsbefragung

Das Working-Paper „Katastrophen und Katastrophenvorsorge in Berlin-Neukölln aus Sicht der Bevölkerung“ stellt Ergebnisse einer Studie zur Wahrnehmung von Katastrophen und Katastrophen-vorsorge in Neukölln vor, die im Rahmen des vom Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) finanzierten Projekts „INVOLVE – Verringerung sozialer Vulnerabilität durch freiwilliges Engagement“ (2015-2018) durchgeführt wurde. Es werden die deskriptiven Ergebnisse einer quan-titativen Bevölkerungsbefragung dargestellt. Im Mittelpunkt der Erhebung stand die Wahrneh-mung und Einschätzung von Katastrophen, Katastrophenschutz sowie Vorsorgemaßnahmen ge-genüber den Szenarien Starkregen/Überschwemmungen, Hitzewellen sowie sozioökonomische Krise. Es zeigt sich, dass „klassische Naturkatastrophen“ als Gefahr im Bewusstsein und dem daraus resultierenden Vorsorgeverhalten deutlich weniger präsent sind als sozioökonomische Aspekte und individuelle Sorgen, wie bspw. Existenzsicherungsängste. Das Gefühl sozialer Einbettung in persönlichen Netzwerken und sozialer Kohäsion in der direkten Nachbarschaft und die damit ver-bundenen Ressourcen bei der Katastrophenbewältigung, ebenso wie das Vertrauen in Organisati-onen des Katastrophenschutzes wie das Technische Hilfswerk (THW) und Feuerwehren sind bei den Befragten sehr stark ausgeprägt. Das Vertrauen in die Kompetenzen von Behörden ist dagegen geringer

Efeitos da transformação de uma variável com distribuição normal em sua inversa sobre os parâmetros de sua distribuição usando técnicas de Monte Carlo Effects of transforming a normally distributed variable into its inverse on parameters of the distribution using Monte Carlo techniques

Foram realizados quatro estudos de simulação para verificar a distribuição de inversas de variáveis com distribuição normal, em função de diferentes variâncias, médias, pontos de truncamentos e tamanhos amostrais. As variáveis simuladas foram GMD, com distribuição normal, representando o ganho médio diário e DIAS, obtido a partir da inversa de GMD, representando dias para se obter determinado peso. Em todos os estudos, foi utilizado o sistema SAS® (1990) para simulação dos dados e para posterior análise dos resultados. As médias amostrais de DIAS foram dependentes dos desvios-padrão utilizados na simulação. As análises de regressão mostraram redução da média e do desvio-padrão de DIAS em função do aumento na média de GMD. A inclusão de um ponto de truncamento entre 10 e 25% do valor da média de GMD reduziu a média de GMD e aumentou a de DIAS, quando o coeficiente de variação de GMD foi superior a 25%. O efeito do tamanho dos grupos nas médias de GMD e DIAS não foi significativo, mas o desvio-padrão e CV amostrais médios de GMD aumentaram com o tamanho do grupo. Em virtude da dependência entre a média e o desvio-padrão e da variação observada nos desvios-padrão de DIAS em função do tamanho do grupo, a utilização de DIAS como critério de seleção pode diminuir a acurácia da variação. Portanto, para a substituição de GMD por DIAS, é necessária a utilização de um método de análise robusto o suficiente para a eliminação da heterogeneidade de variância.<br>Four simulation studies were conducted to verify the distribution of the inverse of variables with normal distribution, relatively to variances, averages, truncation points and sample sizes. The variables simulated were GMD, with normal distribution and representing average daily gain, and DIAS defined as a multiple of the inverse of GMD and representing days to reach a fixed body weight. The SAS® (1990) system was used, for simulation of the data, and for subsequent analysis of the results in all studies. The standard deviations simulated for GMD significantly affected DIAS sampling averages. The regression analyses showed a reduction on the mean and in the standard deviation of DIAS as a function of the increase in the average of GMD. Including a truncation point at about 10 to 25% of the mean value reduced the mean of GMD and increased the mean of DIAS when the coefficient of variation of GMD was above 25%. Size of the groups did not significantly affect averages of GMD or DIAS. Standard deviation and CV of GMD increased with the increase on group size. Due to the dependence between the average and the standard deviation and the variation observed in the standard deviations of DIAS as a function of group size, the use of DIAS as selection criteria may reduce the accuracy of the genetic evaluation. Therefore, in order to substitute GMD by DIAS, it is necessary the use of a method of analysis robust enough to eliminate the heterogeneity of variance

Implementation of a Brazilian Cardioprotective Nutritional (BALANCE) Program for improvement on quality of diet and secondary prevention of cardiovascular events: A randomized, multicenter trial

Background: Appropriate dietary recommendations represent a key part of secondary prevention in cardiovascular disease (CVD). We evaluated the effectiveness of the implementation of a nutritional program on quality of diet, cardiovascular events, and death in patients with established CVD. Methods: In this open-label, multicenter trial conducted in 35 sites in Brazil, we randomly assigned (1:1) patients aged 45 years or older to receive either the BALANCE Program (experimental group) or conventional nutrition advice (control group). The BALANCE Program included a unique nutritional education strategy to implement recommendations from guidelines, adapted to the use of affordable and regional foods. Adherence to diet was evaluated by the modified Alternative Healthy Eating Index. The primary end point was a composite of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular death, cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, stroke, myocardial revascularization, amputation, or hospitalization for unstable angina. Secondary end points included biochemical and anthropometric data, and blood pressure levels. Results: From March 5, 2013, to Abril 7, 2015, a total of 2534 eligible patients were randomly assigned to either the BALANCE Program group (n = 1,266) or the control group (n = 1,268) and were followed up for a median of 3.5 years. In total, 235 (9.3%) participants had been lost to follow-up. After 3 years of follow-up, mean modified Alternative Healthy Eating Index (scale 0-70) was only slightly higher in the BALANCE group versus the control group (26.2 ± 8.4 vs 24.7 ± 8.6, P <.01), mainly due to a 0.5-serving/d greater intake of fruits and of vegetables in the BALANCE group. Primary end point events occurred in 236 participants (18.8%) in the BALANCE group and in 207 participants (16.4%) in the control group (hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% CI 0.95-1.38; P =.15). Secondary end points did not differ between groups after follow-up. Conclusions: The BALANCE Program only slightly improved adherence to a healthy diet in patients with established CVD and had no significant effect on the incidence of cardiovascular events or death. © 2019 The Author

Brazilian Flora 2020: Leveraging the power of a collaborative scientific network

International audienceThe shortage of reliable primary taxonomic data limits the description of biological taxa and the understanding of biodiversity patterns and processes, complicating biogeographical, ecological, and evolutionary studies. This deficit creates a significant taxonomic impediment to biodiversity research and conservation planning. The taxonomic impediment and the biodiversity crisis are widely recognized, highlighting the urgent need for reliable taxonomic data. Over the past decade, numerous countries worldwide have devoted considerable effort to Target 1 of the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC), which called for the preparation of a working list of all known plant species by 2010 and an online world Flora by 2020. Brazil is a megadiverse country, home to more of the world's known plant species than any other country. Despite that, Flora Brasiliensis, concluded in 1906, was the last comprehensive treatment of the Brazilian flora. The lack of accurate estimates of the number of species of algae, fungi, and plants occurring in Brazil contributes to the prevailing taxonomic impediment and delays progress towards the GSPC targets. Over the past 12 years, a legion of taxonomists motivated to meet Target 1 of the GSPC, worked together to gather and integrate knowledge on the algal, plant, and fungal diversity of Brazil. Overall, a team of about 980 taxonomists joined efforts in a highly collaborative project that used cybertaxonomy to prepare an updated Flora of Brazil, showing the power of scientific collaboration to reach ambitious goals. This paper presents an overview of the Brazilian Flora 2020 and provides taxonomic and spatial updates on the algae, fungi, and plants found in one of the world's most biodiverse countries. We further identify collection gaps and summarize future goals that extend beyond 2020. Our results show that Brazil is home to 46,975 native species of algae, fungi, and plants, of which 19,669 are endemic to the country. The data compiled to date suggests that the Atlantic Rainforest might be the most diverse Brazilian domain for all plant groups except gymnosperms, which are most diverse in the Amazon. However, scientific knowledge of Brazilian diversity is still unequally distributed, with the Atlantic Rainforest and the Cerrado being the most intensively sampled and studied biomes in the country. In times of “scientific reductionism”, with botanical and mycological sciences suffering pervasive depreciation in recent decades, the first online Flora of Brazil 2020 significantly enhanced the quality and quantity of taxonomic data available for algae, fungi, and plants from Brazil. This project also made all the information freely available online, providing a firm foundation for future research and for the management, conservation, and sustainable use of the Brazilian funga and flora