Efficient state-space inference of periodic latent force models

Latent force models (LFM) are principled approaches to incorporating solutions to differen-tial equations within non-parametric inference methods. Unfortunately, the developmentand application of LFMs can be inhibited by their computational cost, especially whenclosed-form solutions for the LFM are unavailable, as is the case in many real world prob-lems where these latent forces exhibit periodic behaviour. Given this, we develop a newsparse representation of LFMs which considerably improves their computational efficiency,as well as broadening their applicability, in a principled way, to domains with periodic ornear periodic latent forces. Our approach uses a linear basis model to approximate onegenerative model for each periodic force. We assume that the latent forces are generatedfrom Gaussian process priors and develop a linear basis model which fully expresses thesepriors. We apply our approach to model the thermal dynamics of domestic buildings andshow that it is effective at predicting day-ahead temperatures within the homes. We alsoapply our approach within queueing theory in which quasi-periodic arrival rates are mod-elled as latent forces. In both cases, we demonstrate that our approach can be implemented efficiently using state-space methods which encode the linear dynamic systems via LFMs.Further, we show that state estimates obtained using periodic latent force models can re-duce the root mean squared error to 17% of that from non-periodic models and 27% of thenearest rival approach which is the resonator model (S ̈arkk ̈a et al., 2012; Hartikainen et al.,2012.

Current Accounts in Europe: Implications of the External Imbalances for the Future of the Common Monetary Policy

The paper discusses the seriousness of current account imbalances in the last few decades in Europe, with a particular focus on the European Monetary Union. A closer look at the development of current accounts in European economies suggests the existence of some serious structural problems that might jeopardize economic performance of single countries, but even more importantly, of the entire monetary union. Although current account positions have been subject of numerous research projects till now, scarce interest has been offered regarding specifically the situation in the member states of the euro area and in the euro candidate countries. This lack of interest could be justified among others with the myopic conviction expressed in the literature that current account positions become irrelevant in a monetary union. Instead, there are conceptual reasons to be worried about external imbalances in a currency area, and particularly, in the current as well as potentially enlarged EMU

Financial Liberalization, Growth, Productivity and Capital Accumulation: The Case of European Integration

In the present contribution, we concentrate on the process of financial liberalization in a specific context of European economic and monetary integration. We implement de facto and de jure measures of financial liberalization and find that formal aspects of financial openness generate a strongly positive impact on economic growth and its sources, productivity growth and capital accumulation. Moreover, there is evidence of a positive contribution to the process stemming from the EU membership, while no substantial effect comes from the euro adoption. Finally, we investigate the effects from financial integration on country groups within the EU

Towards a compact representation of temporal rasters

Big research efforts have been devoted to efficiently manage spatio-temporal data. However, most works focused on vectorial data, and much less, on raster data. This work presents a new representation for raster data that evolve along time named Temporal k^2 raster. It faces the two main issues that arise when dealing with spatio-temporal data: the space consumption and the query response times. It extends a compact data structure for raster data in order to manage time and thus, it is possible to query it directly in compressed form, instead of the classical approach that requires a complete decompression before any manipulation. In addition, in the same compressed space, the new data structure includes two indexes: a spatial index and an index on the values of the cells, thus becoming a self-index for raster data.Comment: This research has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Actions H2020-MSCA-RISE-2015 BIRDS GA No. 690941. Published in SPIRE 201

Electrostatics in a simple wormhole revisited

The electrostatic potential generated by a point charge at rest in a simple static, spherically symmetric wormhole is given in the form of series of multipoles and in closed form. The general potential which is physically acceptable depends on a parameter due to the fact that the monopole solution is arbitrary. When the wormhole has Z2-symmetry, the potential is completely determined. The calculation of the electrostatic self-energy and of the self-force is performed in all cases considered.Comment: 16 pages, no figure

Directional gene flow and ecological separation in Yersinia enterocolitica

Yersinia enterocolitica is a common cause of food-borne gastroenteritis worldwide. Recent work defining the phylogeny of the genus Yersinia subdivided Y. enterocolitica into six distinct phylogroups. Here, we provide detailed analyses of the evolutionary processes leading to the emergence of these phylogroups. The dominant phylogroups isolated from human infections, PG3–5, show very little diversity at the sequence level, but do present marked patterns of gain and loss of functions, including those involved in pathogenicity and metabolism, including the acquisition of phylogroup-specific O-antigen loci. We tracked gene flow across the species in the core and accessory genome, and show that the non-pathogenic PG1 strains act as a reservoir for diversity, frequently acting as donors in recombination events. Analysis of the core and accessory genome also suggested that the different Y. enterocolitica phylogroups may be ecologically separated, in contrast to the long-held belief of common shared ecological niches across the Y. enterocolitica species