SISTEM PAKAR DIAGNOSA PENYAKIT SALURAN PERNAFASAN YANG DIPICU PENGGUNAAN AIR CONDITIONER (AC) DENGAN METODE DEMPSTER SHAFER

AbstrakSistem pakar adalah sistem yang didesain dan diimplementasikan dengan bantuan bahasa pemrograman tertentu untuk dapat menyelesaikan masalah seperti yang dilakukan oleh para ahli. Salah satu penerapan sistem pakar dapat digunakan untuk diagnosa penyakit saluran pernafasan yang dipicu penggunaan Air conditioner (AC). Penyakit saluran pernafasan merupakan sekelompok penyakit kompleks dan heterogen yang disebabkan oleh berbagai penyebab dan dapat mengenai setiap lokasi di sepanjang saluran nafas. Penyakit saluran pernafasan merupakan salah satu penyebab utama kunjungan pasien ke sarana kesehatan. Metode dempster shafer merupakan metode penalaran  non monotonis  yang digunakan untuk mencari ketidakpastian akibat adanya penambahan maupun pengurangan fakta baru yang akan merubah aturan yang ada, sehingga metode  dempster shafer  memungkinkan seseorang aman dalam melakukan pekerjaan seorang pakar, sekaligus dapat mengetahui probabilitas atau presentase dari penyakit yang mungkin diderita. Hasil uji coba 10 kasus didapatkan persentase sebesar 100% nilai kebenaran antara perhitugan manual dan sistem dari prediksi diagnosa yang sesuai dengan pengetahuan yang dimiliki oleh pakar.  Sehingga dapat disimpulkan bahwa sistem pakar yang telah dibangun dapat digunakan untuk mendiagnosa penyakit saluran pernafasan yang dipicu penggunaan Air conditioner (AC) dengan metode dempster shafer.Kata Kunci : Sistem Pakar, Penyakit Saluran Pernafasan, Metode Dempster ShaferAbstractExpert systems are systems that are designed and implemented using a specific programming language to be able to solve the problem as human experts did. One of expert systems applications can be used for diagnosing respiratory disease triggered by the use of Air conditioner (AC). Respiratory disease is a complex and heterogeneous group of diseases caused by a variety of causes and be able to spread to any location  in respiratory organ. Respiratory disease is a major cause of patient visiting to health facilities. Dempster Shafer method is non monotonic reasoning method used to find uncertainty due to addition or subtraction of new facts that would change the existing rules, thus dempster shafer method allows a person doing save as expert, this method also can determine the probability or percentage of disease that may suffered. Based on test results in 10 cases it obtains 100 % of truth values  between manual calculation and the predictive diagnosis system according to the knowledge of experts. It can be concluded that the expert system using dempster shafer method that has been built can be used to diagnose respiratory disease triggered by the use of Air Conditioner (AC).Keywords : Expert System , Respiratory Diseases , Dempster Shafer Metho

Trade costs, 1870–2000

What has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past century and a half? Was it changes in global output or in the costs of international trade? To address this question, we derive a micro-founded measure of aggregate bilateral trade costs based on a standard model of trade in differentiated goods. These trade costs gauge the difference between observed bilateral trade and frictionless trade in terms of an implied markup on retail prices of foreign goods. Thus, we are able to estimate the combined magnitude of tariffs, transportation costs, and all other macroeconomic frictions that impede international trade but that are inherently difficult to observe. We use this measure to examine the growth of global trade between 1870 and 1913, its retreat from 1921 to 1939, and its subsequent rise from 1950 to 2000. We find that trade cost declines explain roughly 55 percent of the pre–World War I trade boom and 33 percent of the post–World War II trade boom, while a precipitous rise in trade costs explains the entire interwar trade bust

PENDETEKSI SUSU BASI DENGAN SENSOR pH DAN SENSOR SUHU BERBASIS MIKROKONTROLER

Perkembangan teknologi mengakibatkan manusia cenderung terbiasa bekerja dengan bantuan alat secara otomatis. Penelitian yang mengarah pada otomastisasi pun telah banyak dikembangkan seperti pendeteksi susu otomatis. Jika selama ini kita hanya mengunakan kertas lakmus untuk mendeteksi asam basa suatu larutan, maka sekarang kita bisa mengujinya dengan menggunakan sensor pH, hal ini sangatlah membantu karena tingkat akurasi nya juga semakin tinggi. Oleh karena itu dibuatlah perangkat pendeteksi susu otomatis dimana untuk mengetahui keadaan susu tersebut dengan menggunakan suatu sensor. Alat pendeteksi ini menggunakan komponen Mikrokontroler AVR AT Mega 16 sebagai otak untuk menjalankan program, dan sensor pH ( Power of Hydrogen ) sebagai masukan yang mendeteksi keadaan susu, serta ditunjang sengan sensor suhu LM35 yang bisa mengetahui berapa °C suhu susu. Penelitian ini menghasilkan presentase yang hampir mendekati sempurna, terbukti dengan keakuratan keluaran hasil yang dideteksi oleh alat pendeteksi. Kata kunci : Mikrokontroler AVR AT Mega 16, sensor pH, LCD, LM3

Self-Determination Theory and Juvenile Delinquency: A Validation of a Combined Theory for Understanding Youth in Conflict with the Law

In this study, we propose an expanded theory of delinquency that integrates social learning, control, and motivationally based explanations of human behavior. We posit that delinquency occurs partly due to attempts to fulfill 3 developmentally necessary psychological needs; auton-omy, competence, and relatedness. Melding elements of 3 theories (Social Control Theory [Hirschi, 1972], General Crime Theory [Gottfredson & Hirschi, 1990], and Self Determination Theory [Deci & Ryan, 1985, 2000a, 2008]), provides a better understanding of the precursors to delinquency and possible approaches to mitigating their impact. The study examines: (a) the extent to which the 3 basic psychological needs (competence, autonomy, and relatedness) are relevant constructs to discussing delinquency, (b) how the fulfillment of these needs varies in different environments (e.g., in school v. in the hood), and (c) ways to address these needs to mitigate delinquency and school failure. Twenty-seven adjudicated youths from a county deten-tion program completed a questionnaire regarding the extent to which the 3 constructs were rel-evant in their lives, and if the meeting of these needs varied as a function of setting. Seven interviews were also conducted to expand upon survey results. Findings support the following constructs: that the attitudes of youths vis-à-vis these basic needs can and will vary signifi-cantly in different settings; and that delinquency prevention and school reform will be enhanced when the basic needs of a student (i.e., to be respected [autonomy], to be engaged [relatedness], and to experience success [competence]), are met

Cause of death and predictors of mortality in a community-based cohort of people with epilepsy.

OBJECTIVE: The risk of premature mortality is increased in people with epilepsy. The reasons for this and how it may relate to epilepsy etiology remain unclear. METHODS: The National General Practice Study of Epilepsy is a prospective, community-based cohort that includes 558 people with recurrent unprovoked seizures of whom 34% died during almost 25 years of follow-up. We assessed the underlying and immediate causes of death and their relationship to epilepsy etiology. Psychiatric and somatic comorbidities of epilepsy as predictors of mortality were scrutinized using adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: The 3 most common underlying causes of death were noncerebral neoplasm, cardiovascular, and cerebrovascular disease, accounting for 59% (111/189) of deaths, while epilepsy-related causes (e.g., sudden unexplained death in epilepsy) accounted for 3% (6/189) of deaths. In 23% (43/189) of individuals, the underlying cause of death was directly related to the epilepsy etiology; this was significantly more likely if death occurred within 2 years of the index seizure (percent ratio 4.28 [95% confidence interval 2.63-6.97]). Specific comorbidities independently associated with increased risk of mortality were neoplasms (primary cerebral and noncerebral neoplasm), certain neurologic diseases, and substance abuse. CONCLUSIONS: Comorbid diseases are important causes of death, as well as predictors of premature mortality in epilepsy. There is an especially strong relationship between cause of death and epilepsy etiology in the first 2 years after the index seizure. Addressing these issues may help stem the tide of premature mortality in epilepsy

SEMIÓTICA: UMA MANEIRA DE LER UMA BOLACHA CHINESA

São apresentadas discussões consideradas primordiais na elaboração de uma teoria semiótica, enfocando principalmenteos elementos criteriosos de significação, signoprodução e comunicação semiótica.Qualquer definição completa de semiótica necessariamente,na opinião dos autores, deve levar em consideração cada um dos elementos e suas relações de interdependência. Em nossa visão o estudo de linguagem necessita uma abordagem global, que coloque o comportamento lingüístico no mesmo nivel de outros comportamentos comunicativos (verbais e não-verbais)