The electoral cycle favors the GOP in 2016

Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle. This is not the pattern associated with partisan realignments that may last 30 years or so; it is a shorter cycle that relates to party control of the White House. A cyclical model of presidential elections developed by Helmut Norpoth predicts that in 2016 it will be time for a change. After two terms of Democratic control of the White House under President Obama, the Republican Party is poised to return to the White House

How people were able to vote in 2020 helped flip key states for Joe Biden

The COVID-19 pandemic meant that in the 2020 presidential election, many Americans were able to vote differently by using drop boxes or mail-in ballots. Helmut Norpoth examines whether these different voting methods might have influenced the election’s outcome. He finds that while these methods may have benefitted Joe Biden in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, they were not decisive, only making his electoral victory more comfortable

PM-Pendulum Model: Conservatives Edge Labour in Votes and Seats

Last week, a group of academics gathered at LSE to discuss a variety of forecasting models. In this post, Matthew Lebo and Helmut Norpoth, both professors of political science at Stony Brook University in New York, discuss their PM-and-Pendulum model. Their model favours the Conservatives in terms of parliamentary seats, though predicts that Cameron will not win a majority. Further, they suggest that the SNP is likely to win 41 of 59 Scottish seats

Biden is struggling to please both the progressive voters and the Trump haters who helped elect him

President Joe Biden’s approval ratings have now been in decline for nearly a year, making him the least popular president at this time in his presidency in 70 years, save for Donald Trump. Yulia Pechenkina and Helmut Norpoth argue that Biden’s falling ratings can be linked to progressive disenchantment with his failures so far to deliver on many of his election promises, and a lack of support from those who voted against Donald Trump rather than for Biden in 2020

Against all odds? The red-green victory

"Picking Winners in electoral contests is a popular sport in Germany, as in many places elsewhere. During the 2002 campaign for the Bundestag, pre election polls tracked the horse race of party support almost daily. Election junkies were invited to enter online sweepstakes. They could also bet real money albeit in limited quantity, on the parties' fortunes on WAHL$TREET, a mock stock market run by DIE ZEIT an other media. As usual, election night witnessed the race of the networks to project the winner the second the polls where voters had cast their ballots closed. But in 2002, there was also one newcomer in the business of electoral prophecy: a statistical forecast based on insights from electoral research. (...)" (excerpt

Washington DC may be politically polarized but most Americans are not

In recent decades the US Congress has become increasingly polarized, with legislators taking increasingly more extreme ideological positions on various issues. But does this polarization reflect the US as a whole? Using data from the American National Election Study Helmut Norpoth and Michael S. Lewis-Beck find that the American electorate is far from polarized, with a plurality identifying with the political middle ground and a very small number considering themselves to be either extremely conservative or liberal

Partnerwahl - Koalitionspräferenzen bei Parteien und Wählern in der Bundesrepublik

Basierend auf Daten von 1961-1976, untersucht der Autor die Fragen a) in welchem Maße sich die Parteiführer bei der Regierungsbildung an den Koalitionspräferenzen der Wähler orientieren und b) in welchem Maße die Wähler wiederum von den Koalitionsentscheidungen der Parteien beeinflußt werden. (AR

The Effects of Deliberative Polling in an EU-wide Experiment: Five Mechanisms in Search of an Explanation

Deliberative Polls simulate public opinion in a given policy domain when members of the relevant mass public are better informed about the issues involved. This article reports on the results of a three-day Deliberative Poll, conducted before the June 2009 European Parliament elections, to evaluate the effects of deliberation on a representative sample of EU citizens. Findings show that, compared with a control group, deliberators changed their views significantly on immigration (becoming more liberal), climate change (becoming greener) and the EU itself (becoming more pro-European). Five different explanations of why deliberation appears to work are tested: sampling bias, increased political knowledge, discussion quality, small group social conformity pressure and the influence of other Deliberative Poll actors, but none is satisfactory.</jats:p