Blog post from London School of Economics & Political Science
Abstract
Over nearly two centuries, American presidential elections have exhibited a distinct cycle. This is not the pattern associated with partisan realignments that may last 30 years or so; it is a shorter cycle that relates to party control of the White House. A cyclical model of presidential elections developed by Helmut Norpoth predicts that in 2016 it will be time for a change. After two terms of Democratic control of the White House under President Obama, the Republican Party is poised to return to the White House
