Estimating the number needed to treat from continuous outcomes in randomised controlled trials: methodological challenges and worked example using data from the UK Back Pain Exercise and Manipulation (BEAM) trial

Background Reporting numbers needed to treat (NNT) improves interpretability of trial results. It is unusual that continuous outcomes are converted to numbers of individual responders to treatment (i.e., those who reach a particular threshold of change); and deteriorations prevented are only rarely considered. We consider how numbers needed to treat can be derived from continuous outcomes; illustrated with a worked example showing the methods and challenges. Methods We used data from the UK BEAM trial (n = 1, 334) of physical treatments for back pain; originally reported as showing, at best, small to moderate benefits. Participants were randomised to receive 'best care' in general practice, the comparator treatment, or one of three manual and/or exercise treatments: 'best care' plus manipulation, exercise, or manipulation followed by exercise. We used established consensus thresholds for improvement in Roland-Morris disability questionnaire scores at three and twelve months to derive NNTs for improvements and for benefits (improvements gained+deteriorations prevented). Results At three months, NNT estimates ranged from 5.1 (95% CI 3.4 to 10.7) to 9.0 (5.0 to 45.5) for exercise, 5.0 (3.4 to 9.8) to 5.4 (3.8 to 9.9) for manipulation, and 3.3 (2.5 to 4.9) to 4.8 (3.5 to 7.8) for manipulation followed by exercise. Corresponding between-group mean differences in the Roland-Morris disability questionnaire were 1.6 (0.8 to 2.3), 1.4 (0.6 to 2.1), and 1.9 (1.2 to 2.6) points. Conclusion In contrast to small mean differences originally reported, NNTs were small and could be attractive to clinicians, patients, and purchasers. NNTs can aid the interpretation of results of trials using continuous outcomes. Where possible, these should be reported alongside mean differences. Challenges remain in calculating NNTs for some continuous outcomes

Neurocognitive function in HIV infected patients on antiretroviral therapy

OBJECTIVE To describe factors associated with neurocognitive (NC) function in HIV-positive patients on stable combination antiretroviral therapy. DESIGN We undertook a cross-sectional analysis assessing NC data obtained at baseline in patients entering the Protease-Inhibitor-Monotherapy-Versus-Ongoing-Triple therapy (PIVOT) trial. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE NC testing comprised of 5 domains. Raw results were z-transformed using standard and demographically adjusted normative datasets (ND). Global z-scores (NPZ-5) were derived from averaging the 5 domains and percentage of subjects with test scores >1 standard deviation (SD) below population means in at least two domains (abnormal Frascati score) calculated. Patient characteristics associated with NC results were assessed using multivariable linear regression. RESULTS Of the 587 patients in PIVOT, 557 had full NC results and were included. 77% were male, 68% Caucasian and 28% of Black ethnicity. Mean (SD) baseline and nadir CD4+ lymphocyte counts were 553(217) and 177(117) cells/µL, respectively, and HIV RNA was <50 copies/mL in all. Median (IQR) NPZ-5 score was -0.5 (-1.2/-0) overall, and -0.3 (-0.7/0.1) and -1.4 (-2/-0.8) in subjects of Caucasian and Black ethnicity, respectively. Abnormal Frascati scores using the standard-ND were observed in 51%, 38%, and 81%, respectively, of subjects overall, Caucasian and Black ethnicity (p<0.001), but in 62% and 69% of Caucasian and Black subjects using demographically adjusted-ND (p = 0.20). In the multivariate analysis, only Black ethnicity was associated with poorer NPZ-5 scores (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS In this large group of HIV-infected subjects with viral load suppression, ethnicity but not HIV-disease factors is closely associated with NC results. The prevalence of abnormal results is highly dependent on control datasets utilised. TRIAL REGISTRY ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01230580

Rainfall Thresholding and Susceptibility assessment of rainfall induced landslides: application to landslide management in St Thomas, Jamaica

The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10064-009-0232-zThe parish of St Thomas has one of the highest densities of landslides in Jamaica, which impacts the residents, local economy and the built and natural environment. These landslides result from a combination of steep slopes, faulting, heavy rainfall and the presence of highly weathered volcanics, sandstones, limestones and sandstone/shale series and are particularly prevalent during the hurricane season (June–November). The paper reports a study of the rainfall thresholds and landslide susceptibility assessment to assist the prediction, mitigation and management of slope instability in landslide-prone areas of the parish

Problem formulation by medical students: an observation study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Medical problems are often complex and ill-structured. In formulating the problem, one has to discriminate pertinent elements from irrelevant information in order to effectively find a solution. In this observation study, we describe how medical students formulate the problem of a complex case.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>32 third year medical students were presented with a complex case of endocarditis. They were asked to synthesize the case and give the best formulation of the problem. They were then asked to provide a diagnosis. A subsequent group of 25 students were presented with the problem already formulated and were also asked for the diagnosis. We analyzed the student's problem formulations using the presence or absence of essential elements of the case, the use of higher-order concepts and the use of relations between concepts.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>12/32 students presented with the case made the correct diagnosis. Diagnostic accuracy was significantly associated with the use of higher-order concepts and relations between concepts. Establishing explicit relations was particularly important. Almost all students who missed the diagnosis could not elicit any relations between concepts but only reported factual observations. When presented with an already formulated problem, 19/25 students made the correct diagnosis. (p < 0.05)</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When faced with a complex new case, students may not have the structured knowledge to recognize the nature of the problem. They have to build new schema or problem representation. Our observations suggest that this process involves using higher-order concepts and establishing new relations between concepts. The fact that students could recognize the disease when presented with a formulated problem but had more difficulty when presented with the original complex case indicates that knowledge of the clinical features may be necessary but not sufficient for problem formulation. Our hypothesis is that problem formulation represents a distinct ability.</p

Analysis of a sprint ski race and associated laboratory determinants of world-class performance

This investigation was designed to analyze the time-trial (STT) in an international cross-country skiing sprint skating competition for (1) overall STT performance and relative contributions of time spent in different sections of terrain, (2) work rate and kinematics on uphill terrain, and (3) relationships to physiological and kinematic parameters while treadmill roller ski skating. Total time and times in nine different sections of terrain by 12 world-class male sprint skiers were determined, along with work rate and kinematics for one specific uphill section. In addition, peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak), gross efficiency (GE), peak speed (Vpeak), and kinematics in skating were measured. Times on the last two uphill and two final flat sections were correlated to overall STT performance (r = ~−0.80, P < 0.001). For the selected uphill section, speed was correlated to cycle length (r = −0.75, P < 0.01) and the estimated work rate was approximately 160% of peak aerobic power. VO2peak, GE, Vpeak, and peak cycle length were all correlated to STT performance (r = ~−0.85, P < 0.001). More specifically, VO2peak and GE were correlated to the last two uphill and two final flat section times, whereas Vpeak and peak cycle length were correlated to times in all uphill, flat, and curved sections except for the initial section (r = ~−0.80, P < 0.01). Performances on uphill and flat terrain in the latter part were the most significant determinants of overall STT performance. Peak oxygen uptake, efficiency, peak speed, and peak cycle length were strongly correlated to overall STT performance, as well as to performance in different sections of the race

The kinetics of lactate production and removal during whole-body exercise

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Based on a literature review, the current study aimed to construct mathematical models of lactate production and removal in both muscles and blood during steady state and at varying intensities during whole-body exercise. In order to experimentally test the models in dynamic situations, a cross-country skier performed laboratory tests while treadmill roller skiing, from where work rate, aerobic power and blood lactate concentration were measured. A two-compartment simulation model for blood lactate production and removal was constructed.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The simulated and experimental data differed less than 0.5 mmol/L both during steady state and varying sub-maximal intensities. However, the simulation model for lactate removal after high exercise intensities seems to require further examination.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Overall, the simulation models of lactate production and removal provide useful insight into the parameters that affect blood lactate response, and specifically how blood lactate concentration during practical training and testing in dynamical situations should be interpreted.</p

Does a SLAP lesion affect shoulder muscle recruitment as measured by EMG activity during a rugby tackle?

Background: The study objective was to assess the influence of a SLAP lesion on onset of EMG activity in shoulder muscles during a front on rugby football tackle within professional rugby players. Methods: Mixed cross-sectional study evaluating between and within group differences in EMG onset times. Testing was carried out within the physiotherapy department of a university sports medicine clinic. The test group consisted of 7 players with clinically diagnosed SLAP lesions, later verified on arthroscopy. The reference group consisted of 15 uninjured and full time professional rugby players from within the same playing squad. Controlled tackles were performed against a tackle dummy. Onset of EMG activity was assessed from surface EMG of Pectorialis Major, Biceps Brachii, Latissimus Dorsi, Serratus Anterior and Infraspinatus muscles relative to time of impact. Analysis of differences in activation timing between muscles and limbs (injured versus non-injured side and non injured side versus matched reference group). Results: Serratus Anterior was activated prior to all other muscles in all (P = 0.001-0.03) subjects. In the SLAP injured shoulder Biceps was activated later than in the non-injured side. Onset times of all muscles of the noninjured shoulder in the injured player were consistently earlier compared with the reference group. Whereas, within the injured shoulder, all muscle activation timings were later than in the reference group. Conclusions: This study shows that in shoulders with a SLAP lesion there is a trend towards delay in activation time of Biceps and other muscles with the exception of an associated earlier onset of activation of Serratus anterior, possibly due to a coping strategy to protect glenohumeral stability and thoraco-scapular stability. This trend was not statistically significant in all cases