Preparing Scientists, Policy-Makers, and Managers for a Fast-Forward Future

Ecosystems in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta are changing rapidly, as are ecosystems around the world. Extreme events are becoming more frequent and thresholds are likely to be crossed more often, creating greater uncertainty about future conditions. The accelerating speed of change means that ecological systems may not remain stable long enough for scientists to understand them, much less use their research findings to inform policy and management. Faced with these challenges, those involved in science, policy, and management must adapt and change and anticipate what the ecosystems may be like in the future. We highlight several ways of looking ahead—scenario analyses, horizon scanning, expert elicitation, and dynamic planning—and suggest that recent advances in distributional ecology, disturbance ecology, resilience thinking, and our increased understanding of coupled human–natural systems may provide fresh ways of thinking about more rapid change in the future. To accelerate forward-looking science, policy, and management in the Delta, we propose that the State of California create a Delta Science Visioning Process to fully and openly assess the challenges of more rapid change to science, policy, and management and propose appropriate solutions, through legislation, if needed

A economia da pecuária na Amazônia oriental

Este trabalho é uma simulação econômica de operações pecuárias em grande escala na Bacia Amazônica, as quais receberam linhas de crédito subsidiado e incentivos fiscais de vários tipos. Nosso estudo analisa a lucratividade de operações de bovinocultura sob quatro tecnologias de produção, sob preços variáveis de insumos e produtos e a diferentes taxas de valorização da terra. O desenvolvimento da infra-estrutura e o comprometimento do governo brasileiro em integrar a regiao à economia nacional produziu uma alta generalizada nos preços das terras, contribuindo para uma dinâmica especulativa que caracterizou os mercados de terra brasileiros ao longo dos últimos vinte anos.Este estudo demonstra haver muitas condições sob as quais o investimento em pecuária na Amazônia pode ser lucrativa, embora a maioria dos cenários envolva sobrepastejo, subsídios, preços altos para o gado e baixos para os insumos, valorização da terra ou ainda combinações de todas essas condições. O que mais se destaca na simulação é o fato de o sobrepastejo ser a mais lucrativa estratégia de produção na maior parte dos cenários considerados, em virtude do rápido declínio da produtividade das pastagens na Amazônia. Estes resultados tern duas importantes implicações: primeira, que a pecuaria pode expandir-se e ser lucrativa mesmo sem subsídios, sob certos preços do produto e/ou através de uma estrat´égia de contínuo desflorestamento e sobrepastejo: segunda, que a lucratividade do investimento é aumentada em meio a contextos de maior utilização de insumos e maior produção, marcados pela presença de subsídios e/ou valorização da terra.This study is an economic simulation of large scale livestock operations in the Amazon Basin which recieved subsidized credit lines and fiscal incentives of various types. Our study analyses the profitability of livestock operations under four production technologies, under varying input and product prices, and at different rates of land appreciation. Infrastructure development, and the commitment of the Brazilian government to integrate the region into the national economy produced a generalized boom in land prices which contributed to a speculative dynamic in Brazilian land markets that has continued for the last twenty years. This study shows that there are many conditions where investment in livestock [n the Amazon can be profitable, but most of these scenarios imply either overgrazing, subsidies, conditions of high cattle prices and low input prices, land appreciation or combinations of all of these. What is most salient in the simulation is that overgrazing is the most profitable production strategy under most pricing scenarios given the rapid decline of pasture productivity in Amazonia. These results have two important implications: first, livestock activities can expand and be profitable even without subsidies under certain product prices and/or through a strategy of continued clearing and overgrazing. Second, profitability of investment is increased across more input and product contexts with subsidies and/or land appreciation

Linking Human Health to Biological Diversity

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/74648/1/j.1523-1739.1997.0110061459.x.pd

Ökonomie und Zukunft

What does modern economics mean when it talks about the future and predicts the future? Where does it reach out to when it wants to secure the future for people or keep it open? How was the future experienced and thought of in Greek times, an epoch in which the possibility of theory formation first arose, and thus the foundation was laid for a knowledge of the future? This volume brings together the contributions to two colloquia held at the Free University of Bozen-Bolzano in 2013 and 2014 on the relationship between economics and the future and aims to point out the questionable nature of this relationship. With this intention, the terms "economy" and "future" lose their unambiguity and become questionable in their turn.; Was meint die moderne Wirtschaftswissenschaft, wenn sie von Zukunft redet und Künftiges vorhersagt? Wohin greift sie aus, wenn sie die Zukunft für den Menschen sichern oder offen halten will? Wie wurde Zukunft im Griechentum erfahren und gedacht, einer Epoche, in der zuerst die Möglichkeit einer Theoriebildung aufkam, und damit der Grundstein gelegt wurde für ein Wissen von Zukunft? Der vorliegende Band versammelt die Beiträge zu zwei in den Jahren 2013 und 2014 an der Freien Universität Bozen abgehaltenen Kolloquien zum Verhältnis von Ökonomie und Zukunft und möchte auf das Fragwürdige dieses Verhältnisses hinweisen. In dieser Absicht verlieren die Begriffe „Ökonomie“ und „Zukunft“ ihre Eindeutigkeit und werden ihrerseits fragwürdig

Sustainable development and equity

International audienc