443 research outputs found
Dynamic noise, chaos and parameter estimation in population biology
We revisit the parameter estimation framework for population biological dynamical systems, and apply it to calibrate various models in epidemiology with empirical time series, namely influenza and dengue fever. When it comes to more complex models such as multi-strain dynamics to describe the virus–host interaction in dengue fever, even the most recently developed parameter estimation techniques, such as maximum likelihood iterated filtering, reach their computational limits. However, the first results of parameter estimation with data on dengue fever from Thailand indicate a subtle interplay between stochasticity and the deterministic skeleton. The deterministic system on its own already displays complex dynamics up to deterministic chaos and coexistence of multiple attractors
Solar Coronal Loops Associated with Small-scale Mixed Polarity Surface Magnetic Fields
How and where are coronal loops rooted in the solar lower atmosphere? The
details of the magnetic environment and its evolution at the footpoints of
coronal loops are crucial to understanding the processes of mass and energy
supply to the solar corona. To address the above question, we use
high-resolution line-of-sight magnetic field data from the Imaging Magnetograph
eXperiment instrument on the SUNRISE balloon-borne observatory and coronal
observations from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly onboard the Solar Dynamics
Observatory of an emerging active region. We find that the coronal loops are
often rooted at the locations with minor small-scale but persistent
opposite-polarity magnetic elements very close to the larger dominant polarity.
These opposite-polarity small-scale elements continually interact with the
dominant polarity underlying the coronal loop through flux cancellation. At
these locations we detect small inverse Y-shaped jets in chromospheric Ca II H
images obtained from the SUNRISE Filter Imager during the flux cancellation.
Our results indicate that magnetic flux cancellation and reconnection at the
base of coronal loops due to mixed polarity fields might be a crucial feature
for the supply of mass and energy into the corona.Comment: Published in the Astrophysical Journal Supplement Serie
Morphological properties of slender Ca II H fibrils observed by SUNRISE II
We use seeing-free high spatial resolution Ca II H data obtained by the
SUNRISE observatory to determine properties of slender fibrils in the lower
solar chromosphere. In this work we use intensity images taken with the SUFI
instrument in the Ca II H line during the second scientific flight of the
SUNRISE observatory to identify and track elongated bright structures. After
the identification, we analyze theses structures in order to extract their
morphological properties. We identify 598 slender Ca II H fibrils (SCFs) with
an average width of around 180 km, a length between 500 km and 4000 km, an
average lifetime of ~400 s, and an average curvature of 0.002 arcsec^-1. The
maximum lifetime of the SCFs within our time series of 57 minutes is ~2000 s.
We discuss similarities and differences of the SCFs with other small-scale,
chromospheric structures such as spicules of type I and II, or Ca II K fibrils.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Supplement
Serie
Maximum Entropy Limit of Small-scale Magnetic Field Fluctuations in the Quiet Sun
The observed magnetic field on the solar surface is characterized by a very
complex spatial and temporal behavior. Although feature-tracking algorithms
have allowed us to deepen our understanding of this behavior, subjectivity
plays an important role in the identification and tracking of such features. In
this paper, we continue studies Gorobets, A. Y., Borrero, J. M., & Berdyugina,
S. 2016, ApJL, 825, L18 of the temporal stochasticity of the magnetic field on
the solar surface without relying either on the concept of magnetic features or
on subjective assumptions about their identification and interaction. We
propose a data analysis method to quantify fluctuations of the line-of-sight
magnetic field by means of reducing the temporal field's evolution to the
regular Markov process. We build a representative model of fluctuations
converging to the unique stationary (equilibrium) distribution in the long time
limit with maximum entropy. We obtained different rates of convergence to the
equilibrium at fixed noise cutoff for two sets of data. This indicates a strong
influence of the data spatial resolution and mixing-polarity fluctuations on
the relaxation process. The analysis is applied to observations of magnetic
fields of the relatively quiet areas around an active region carried out during
the second flight of the Sunrise/IMaX and quiet Sun areas at the disk center
from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics
Observatory satellite.Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series
(accepted
Kinematics of Magnetic Bright Features in the Solar Photosphere
Convective flows are known as the prime means of transporting magnetic fields
on the solar surface. Thus, small magnetic structures are good tracers of the
turbulent flows. We study the migration and dispersal of magnetic bright
features (MBFs) in intergranular areas observed at high spatial resolution with
Sunrise/IMaX. We describe the flux dispersal of individual MBFs as a diffusion
process whose parameters are computed for various areas in the quiet Sun and
the vicinity of active regions from seeing-free data. We find that magnetic
concentrations are best described as random walkers close to network areas
(diffusion index, gamma=1.0), travelers with constant speeds over a
supergranule (gamma=1.9-2.0), and decelerating movers in the vicinity of flux
emergence and/or within active regions (gamma=1.4-1.5). The three types of
regions host MBFs with mean diffusion coefficients of 130 km^2/s, 80-90 km^2/s,
and 25-70 km^2/s, respectively. The MBFs in these three types of regions are
found to display a distinct kinematic behavior at a confidence level in excess
of 95%.Comment: 8 pages, 4 figure
On-disk coronal rain
Small and elongated, cool and dense blob-like structures are being reported
with high resolution telescopes in physically different regions throughout the
solar atmosphere. Their detection and the understanding of their formation,
morphology and thermodynamical characteristics can provide important
information on their hosting environment, especially concerning the magnetic
field, whose understanding constitutes a major problem in solar physics. An
example of such blobs is coronal rain, a phenomenon of thermal non- equilibrium
observed in active region loops, which consists of cool and dense chromospheric
blobs falling along loop-like paths from coronal heights. So far, only off-limb
coronal rain has been observed and few reports on the phenomenon exist. In the
present work, several datasets of on-disk H{\alpha} observations with the CRisp
Imaging SpectroPolarimeter (CRISP) at the Swedish 1-m Solar Telescope (SST) are
analyzed. A special family of on-disk blobs is selected for each dataset and a
statistical analysis is carried out on their dynamics, morphology and
temperatures. All characteristics present distributions which are very similar
to reported coronal rain statistics. We discuss possible interpretations
considering other similar blob-like structures reported so far and show that a
coronal rain interpretation is the most likely one. Their chromospheric nature
and the projection effects (which eliminate all direct possibility of height
estimation) on one side, and their small sizes, fast dynamics, and especially,
their faint character (offering low contrast with the background intensity) on
the other side, are found as the main causes for the absence until now of the
detection of this on-disk coronal rain counterpart.Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures. Accepted for Solar Physic
Nivolumab and ipilimumab in the real-world setting in patients with mesothelioma
Objectives: Nivolumab (anti-PD-1) plus ipilimumab (anti-CTLA-4) is a new first-line treatment combination for patients with pleural mesothelioma. Nivolumab-ipilimumab improved the survival, however, 30.3% of the patients suffered from grade 3–4 treatment related adverse events (TRAE's) and TRAE's led to discontinuation in 23.0% of all patients. Here, we present the first real-world data of nivolumab plus ipilimumab in patients with malignant mesothelioma treated in two mesothelioma expert centers. Methods: Clinical data of patients with mesothelioma treated with nivolumab and ipilimumab were prospectively collected. Clinical parameters were obtained every visit, CT scans were evaluated every 12 weeks and adverse events were assessed continuously during the treatment. Data on grade 2–5 TRAE's and activity (overall response rate (ORR), duration of response (DOR), disease control rate (DCR), median progression-free survival (mPFS) and median overall survival (mOS) were reported. Results: Between January 2021 and August 2022, 184 patients were treated with nivolumab plus ipilimumab. The median follow-up was 12.1 months (95 %CI 11.1 – 13.1). Grade 3–4 TRAEs were seen in 27.7 % of the patients and 25.0 % discontinued immunotherapy treatment early because of TRAE's. ORR was 21.7 % (95 % CI 15.7–27.7), median DOR was 5.7 months (IQR 3.2–8.7) and DCR at 12 weeks 56.0 % (95 % CI 48.8–63.2). The mPFS was 5.5 months (95 %CI 4.1–6.9), mOS was 14.1 months (95 % CI 11.1–18.2). Conclusions: Nivolumab plus ipilimumab had an equal efficacy in a real-world comparable population but also a high risk of TRAE's, leading to discontinuation of treatment in 25% of the patients.</p
Adsorption of titanium dioxide nanoparticles onto zebrafish eggs affects colonizing microbiota
Teleost fish embryos are protected by two acellular membranes against particulate pollutants that are present in the water column. These membranes provide an effective barrier preventing particle uptake. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that the adsorption of antimicrobial titanium dioxide nanoparticles onto zebrafish eggs nevertheless harms the developing embryo by disturbing early microbial colonization. Zebrafish eggs were exposed during their first day of development to 2, 5 and 10 mg TiO2 L-1 (NM-105). Additionally, eggs were exposed to gold nanorods to assess the effectiveness of the eggs' membranes in preventing particle uptake, localizing these particles by way of two-photon microscopy. This confirmed that particles accumulate onto zebrafish eggs, without any detectable amounts of particles crossing the protective membranes. By way of particle-induced X-ray emission analysis, we inferred that the titanium dioxide particles could cover 25-45 % of the zebrafish egg surface, where the concentrations of sorbed titanium correlated positively with concentrations of potassium and correlated negatively with concentrations of silicon. A combination of imaging and culture-based microbial identification techniques revealed that the adsorbed particles exerted antimicrobial effects, but resulted in an overall increase of microbial abundance, without any change in heterotrophic microbial activity, as inferred based on carbon substrate utilization. This effect persisted upon hatching, since larvae from particle-exposed eggs still comprised higher microbial abundance than larvae that hatched from control eggs. Notably, pathogenic aeromonads tolerated the antimicrobial properties of the nanoparticles. Overall, our results show that the adsorption of suspended antimicrobial nanoparticles on aquatic eggs can have cascading effects across different life stages of oviparous animals. Our study furthermore suggests that aggregation dynamics may occur that could facilitate the dispersal of pathogenic bacteria through aquatic ecosystems
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