Cascading effects augment the direct impact of CO2 on phytoplankton growth in a biogeochemical model

Atmospheric and oceanic CO2 concentrations are rising at an unprecedented rate. Laboratory studies indicate a positive effect of rising CO2 on phytoplankton growth until an optimum is reached, after which the negative impact of accompanying acidification dominates. Here, we implemented carbonate system sensitivities of phytoplankton growth into our global biogeochemical model FESOM-REcoM and accounted explicitly for coccolithophores as the group most sensitive to CO2. In idealized simulations in which solely the atmospheric CO2 mixing ratio was modified, changes in competitive fitness and biomass are not only caused by the direct effects of CO2, but also by indirect effects via nutrient and light limitation as well as grazing. These cascading effects can both amplify or dampen phytoplankton responses to changing ocean pCO2 levels. For example, coccolithophore growth is negatively affected both directly by future pCO2 and indirectly by changes in light limitation, but these effects are compensated by a weakened nutrient limitation resulting from the decrease in small-phytoplankton biomass. In the Southern Ocean, future pCO2 decreases small-phytoplankton biomass and hereby the preferred prey of zooplankton, which reduces the grazing pressure on diatoms and allows them to proliferate more strongly. In simulations that encompass CO2-driven warming and acidification, our model reveals that recent observed changes in North Atlantic coccolithophore biomass are driven primarily by warming and not by CO2. Our results highlight that CO2 can change the effects of other environmental drivers on phytoplankton growth, and that cascading effects may play an important role in projections of future net primary production

Explainer: what is the Community Pharmacy Agreement?

The Community Pharmacy Agreement is a five-year agreement (now in its fifth cycle) that governs how pharmacies supply medicines listed on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS). While the average Australian makes more than 14 visits to a community pharmacy every year, not many know about how this agreement impacts pharmacy in Australia. Pharmacies buy medication from wholesalers, sell them to people who bring in prescriptions and are reimbursed by the government for drugs listed on the PBS. They’re also paid for the professional advice they provide when dispensing those medicines. Patients pay a contribution towards the cost of their medication to the pharmacist, who then claims from the government the difference between what they paid the wholesaler and the patient contribution. In the financial year ending June 30 2014, the government spent $9.1 billion on PBS-listed drugs. Exactly what this money went to was governed by the Community Pharmacy Agreement

Abruptly attenuated carbon sequestration with Weddell Sea dense waters by 2100

Antarctic Bottom Water formation, such as in the Weddell Sea, is an efficient vector for carbon sequestration on time scales of centuries. Possible changes in carbon sequestration under changing environmental conditions are unquantified to date, mainly due to difficulties in simulating the relevant processes on high-latitude continental shelves. Here, we use a model setup including both ice-shelf cavities and oceanic carbon cycling and demonstrate that by 2100, deep-ocean carbon accumulation in the southern Weddell Sea is abruptly attenuated to only 40% of the 1990s rate in a high-emission scenario, while the rate in the 2050s and 2080s is still 2.5-fold and 4-fold higher, respectively, than in the 1990s. Assessing deep-ocean carbon budgets and water mass transformations, we attribute this decline to an increased presence of modified Warm Deep Water on the southern Weddell Sea continental shelf, a 16% reduction in sea-ice formation, and a 79% increase in ice-shelf basal melt. Altogether, these changes lower the density and volume of newly formed bottom waters and reduce the associated carbon transport to the abyss

Interaction matters: Bottom‐up driver interdependencies alter the projected response of phytoplankton communities to climate change

Phytoplankton growth is controlled by multiple environmental drivers, which are all modified by climate change. While numerous experimental studies identify interactive effects between drivers, large-scale ocean biogeochemistry models mostly account for growth responses to each driver separately and leave the results of these experimental multiple-driver studies largely unused. Here, we amend phytoplankton growth functions in a biogeochemical model by dual-driver interactions (CO2 and temperature, CO2 and light), based on data of a published meta-analysis on multiple-driver laboratory experiments. The effect of this parametrization on phytoplankton biomass and community composition is tested using present-day and future high-emission (SSP5-8.5) climate forcing. While the projected decrease in future total global phytoplankton biomass in simulations with driver interactions is similar to that in control simulations without driver interactions (5%-6%), interactive driver effects are group-specific. Globally, diatom biomass decreases more with interactive effects compared with the control simulation (-8.1% with interactions vs. no change without interactions). Small-phytoplankton biomass, by contrast, decreases less with on-going climate change when the model accounts for driver interactions (-5.0% vs. -9.0%). The response of global coccolithophore biomass to future climate conditions is even reversed when interactions are considered (+33.2% instead of -10.8%). Regionally, the largest difference in the future phytoplankton community composition between the simulations with and without driver interactions is detected in the Southern Ocean, where diatom biomass decreases (-7.5%) instead of increases (+14.5%), raising the share of small phytoplankton and coccolithophores of total phytoplankton biomass. Hence, interactive effects impact the phytoplankton community structure and related biogeochemical fluxes in a future ocean. Our approach is a first step to integrate the mechanistic understanding of interacting driver effects on phytoplankton growth gained by numerous laboratory experiments into a global ocean biogeochemistry model, aiming toward more realistic future projections of phytoplankton biomass and community composition

Sparse observations induce large biases in estimates of the global ocean CO2 sink: an ocean model subsampling experiment

Estimates of ocean CO2 uptake from global ocean biogeochemistry models and pCO2-based data products differ substantially, especially in high latitudes and in the trend of the CO2 uptake since 2000. Here, we assess the effect of data sparsity on two pCO2-based estimates by subsampling output from a global ocean biogeochemistry model. The estimates of the ocean CO2 uptake are improved from a sampling scheme that mimics present-day sampling to an ideal sampling scheme with 1000 evenly distributed sites. In particular, insufficient sampling has given rise to strong biases in the trend of the ocean carbon sink in the pCO2 products. The overestimation of the CO2 flux trend by 20-35% globally and 50-130% in the Southern Ocean with the present-day sampling is reduced to less than 15% with the ideal sampling scheme. A substantial overestimation of the decadal variability of the Southern Ocean carbon sink occurs in one product and appears related to a skewed data distribution in pCO2 space. With the ideal sampling, the bias in the mean CO2 flux is reduced from 9-12% to 2-9% globally and from 14-26% to 5-17% in the Southern Ocean. On top of that, discrepancies of about 0.4 PgC yr-1 (15%) persist due to uncertainties in the gas-exchange calculation. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'

Project Half Double Current Results of Phase 1 and Phase 2, December 2017

The Half Double mission: Project Half Double has a clear mission. We want to succeed in finding a project methodology that can increase the success rate of our projects while increasing the development speed of new products and services. We are convinced that by doing so we can strengthen Denmark’s competitiveness and play an important role in the battle for jobs and future welfare. The overall goal is to deliver “Projects in half the time with double the impact” where projects in half the time should be understood as half the time to impact (benefit realization, effect is achieved) and not as half the time for project execution. The Half Double project journey: It all began in May 2013 when we asked ourselves: How do we create a new and radical project paradigm that can create successful projects? Today the movement includes hundreds of passionate project people, and it grows larger by the day. The formal part of Project Half Double was initiated in June 2015. It is a two-phase project: phase 1 took place from June 2015 to June 2016 with seven pilot projects, and phase 2 is in progress from July 2016 to July 2018 with 10 pilot projects.The Half Double consortium: Implement Consulting Group is the project leader establishing and managing the collaboration with the pilot project companies in terms of methodology. Aarhus University and the Technical University of Denmark will evaluate the impact of the pilot projects and legitimize the methodology in academia.The Danish Industry Foundation, an independent philanthropic foundation, is contributing to the project financially with DKK 13.8 million.About this report: This report focuses on phase 2 pilot projects documenting their development and further consolidates results from the phase 1 pilot projects. This is the third report about Project Half Double (Svejvig et al. 2016, Svejvig et al. 2017). This report’s target group inludes practitioners in Danish industry and society in general. The editorial team from Aarhus University prepared the report from October 2017 to December 2017, which means that data about pilot projects from December 2017 is not included

The Chemical Evolution of the Ursa Minor Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy

We present an abundance analysis based on high resolution spectra of 10 stars selected to span the full range in metallicity in the Ursa Minor dwarf spheroidal galaxy. We find [Fe/H] for the sample stars ranges from -1.35 to -3.10 dex and establish the trends of the abundance ratios [X/Fe]. In key cases, particularly for the alpha-elements, these resemble those for stars in the outer part of the Galactic halo, especially at the lowest metallicities probed. The n-capture elements show a r-process distribution over the full range of Fe-metallicity. This suggests that the duration of star formation in the UMi dSph was shorter than in other dSph galaxies. The derived ages for a larger sample of UMi stars with more uncertain metallicities also suggest a population dominated by uniformly old (~13 Gyr) stars, with a hint of an age-metallicity relationship. In comparing our results for UMi, our earlier work in Draco, and published studies of more metal-rich dSph Galactic satellites, there appears to be a pattern of moving from a chemical inventory for dSph giants with [Fe/H] < -2 dex which is very similar to that of stars in the outer part of the Galactic halo (enhanced alpha/Fe relative to the Sun, coupled with subsolar [X/Fe] for the heavy neutron capture elements and r-process domination), switching to subsolar alpha-elements and super-solar s-process dominated neutron capture elements for the highest [Fe/H] dSph stars. The combination of low star formation rates over a varying and sometimes extended duration that produced the stellar populations in the local dSph galaxies with [Fe/H] > -1.5 dex leads to a chemical inventory wildly discrepant from that of any component of the Milky Way.Comment: Accepted to the Astrophysical Journal. 22 pages of text, total length 68 pages includes 11 page table 3 to be published in full in electronic form onl

Diagnostic validity of early-onset obsessive-compulsive disorder in the Danish Psychiatric Central Register:findings from a cohort sample

Employing national registers for research purposes depends on a high diagnostic validity. The aim of the present study was to examine the diagnostic validity of recorded diagnoses of early-onset obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) in the Danish Psychiatric Central Register (DPCR)

Project Half Double: results of phase 1 and phase 2 - June 2019

The purpose of this report in a series of reports from Project Half Double is to present the final overall results from phase 1 and phase 2 of Project Half Double as well as to describe the nine pilot projects from phase 2 in detail