3 research outputs found
Stochastic representations of model uncertainties at ECMWF: state of the art and future vision
Members in ensemble forecasts differ due to the representations of initial uncertainties
and model uncertainties. The inclusion of stochastic schemes to represent model
uncertainties has improved the probabilistic skill of the ECMWF ensemble by
increasing reliability and reducing the error of the ensemble mean. Recent progress,
challenges and future directions regarding stochastic representations of model
uncertainties at ECMWF are described in this paper. The coming years are likely to
see a further increase in the use of ensemble methods in forecasts and assimilation. This
will put increasing demands on the methods used to perturb the forecast model. An area
that is receiving a greater attention than 5 to 10 years ago is the physical consistency of
the perturbations. Other areas where future efforts will be directed are the expansion of
uncertainty representations to the dynamical core and to other components of the Earth
system as well as the overall computational efficiency of representing model uncertainty