Evaluation of predictive models for post-fire debris flow occurrence in the western United States

Abstract. Rainfall-induced debris flows in recently burned mountainous areas cause significant economic losses and human casualties. Currently, prediction of post-fire debris flows is widely based on the use of power-law thresholds and logistic regression models. While these procedures have served with certain success in existing operational warning systems, in this study we investigate the potential to improve the efficiency of current predictive models with machine-learning approaches. Specifically, the performance of a predictive model based on the random forest algorithm is compared with current techniques for the prediction of post-fire debris flow occurrence in the western United States. The analysis is based on a database of post-fire debris flows recently published by the United States Geological Survey. Results show that predictive models based on random forest exhibit systematic and considerably improved performance with respect to the other models examined. In addition, the random-forest-based models demonstrated improvement in performance with increasing training sample size, indicating a clear advantage regarding their ability to successfully assimilate new information. Complexity, in terms of variables required for developing the predictive models, is deemed important but the choice of model used is shown to have a greater impact on the overall performance

Debris flows in the eastern Italian Alps: seasonality and atmospheric circulation patterns

Abstract. The work examines the seasonality and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns associated with debris-flow occurrence in the Trentino–Alto Adige region (eastern Italian Alps). Analysis is based on classification algorithms applied to a uniquely dense archive of debris flows and hourly rain gauge precipitation series covering the period 2000–2009. Results highlight the seasonal and synoptic forcing patterns linked to debris flows in the study area. Summer and fall season account for 92% of the debris flows in the record, while atmospheric circulation characterized by zonal west, mixed and meridional south and southeast (SE–S) patterns account for 80%. Both seasonal and circulation patterns exhibit geographical preference. In the case of seasonality, there is a strong north–south separation of summer–fall dominance, while spatial distribution of dominant circulation patterns exhibits clustering, with both zonal west and mixed patterns prevailing in the northwest and central east part of the region, while the southern part relates to meridional south and southeast pattern. Seasonal and synoptic pattern dependence is pronounced also on the debris-flow-triggering rainfall properties. Examination of rainfall intensity–duration thresholds derived for different data classes (according to season and synoptic pattern) revealed a distinct variability in estimated thresholds. These findings imply a certain control on debris-flow events and can therefore be used to improve existing alert systems

On the quenching behaviour of a semilinear wave equation modelling MEMS technology

This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Discrete and Continuous Dynamical Systems - Series A following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version 2015, 35(3), pp. 1009-1037 is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/10.3934/dcds.2015.35.100

Numerical investigation of droplet impingement onto hydrophobic and super-hydrophobic solid surfaces. The effect of Weber number and wettability

In this study, a new model for the wetting interaction between a liquid droplet and a solid surface is presented. Based on this model, a force which acts on the contact line is incorporated as a source term in the Navier-Stokes momentum equation. The advantage of the new model in comparison with the widely-used Brackbill’s model is that the contact angle is not inserted as a boundary condition, but is derived by the induced fluid flow and the adhesion physics of the liquid-surface combination. For the interface tracking, the Volume of Fluid (V.O.F) method is used, accompanied by an automatic local grid refinement technique in order to minimize the arithmetic diffusion of volume fraction and thus acquire more representative physical results. The new model is validated against experimental data for low and moderate We numbers both for hydrophilic and superhydrophobic surfaces. Results of the model are also compared against the standard Brackbill’s model for the implementation of the wetting force. The apparent contact angle during droplet spreading and recoiling is plotted in order to gain insight on the dynamic angle temporal evolution during the impingement process

Numerical investigation of the aerodynamic breakup of droplets in tandem

The present work examines the aerodynamic breakup of four liquid droplets in tandem formation at Diesel engine conditions using the Volume of Fluid (VOF) method. The examined Weber (We) numbers range from 15 up to 64 and the non-dimensional distances between the droplet centres (L/D0) vary from 1.25 up to 20. Focus is given on the breakup process of the third droplet of the row, which is regarded as a “representative chain droplet”; its development is compared against that of an isolated droplet at the same flow conditions. It is found that for small distances and depending on the We number, the obtained shapes and breakup modes between the droplets are different, with the representative chain droplet experiencing a new breakup mode in the multi-mode regime, termed as “shuttlecock”. This is characterized by an oblique peripheral stretching of the droplet caused by the acting of pressure forces at an off-centre region. Moreover, the drag coefficient and liquid surface area of the representative chain droplet are lower than the corresponding ones of the isolated droplet, while the breakup initiation time is longer and the minimum We number required for breakup (critical We) is higher; correlations are provided to quantify the effect of droplet distance on the aforementioned quantities. Generally, the droplet proximity becomes important for L/D0< 9. Finally, the predicted drag coefficient is utilised in a simplified 0-D model that is capable of estimating the temporal evolution of droplet velocity of the representative chain droplet

Strong-field effects induced in the extreme ultraviolet domain

Motivated by the achieved high intensities of novel extreme ultraviolet (XUV) radiation sources, such as free electron lasers and laser-driven high harmonic generation beamlines, we elaborate on their perspective in inducing observable strong field effects. The feasibility of extending such effects from the infrared and visible spectral regimes in the XUV domain is supported through numerically calculated models of near-future experiments. We highlight the advancement of performing studies in the time domain, using ultra-short XUV pulses, which allows for the temporal evolution of such effects to be followed. Experimental and theoretical obstacles and limitations are further discussed. © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press in association with Chinese Laser Press

Comparative rainfall data analysis from two vertically pointing radars, an optical disdrometer, and a rain gauge

The authors present results of a comparative analysis of rainfall data from several ground-based instruments. The instruments include two vertically pointing Doppler radars, S-band and X-band, an optical disdrometer, and a tipping-bucket rain gauge. All instruments were collocated at the Iowa City Municipal Airport in Iowa City, Iowa, for a period of several months. The authors used the rainfall data derived from the four instruments to first study the temporal variability and scaling characteristics of rainfall and subsequently assess the instrumental effects on these derived properties. The results revealed obvious correspondence between the ground and remote sensors, which indicates the significance of the instrumental effect on the derived properties

Arthroplasty versus internal fixation for femoral neck fractures in the elderly

We studied 140 patients with femoral neck fractures treated from January 1999 to December 2006. There were 68 men and 72 women with a mean age of 72 years (range 60–80 years). Seventy patients were treated with closed reduction and internal fixation (group A), and 70 patients with hip arthroplasty (group B). The duration of surgery, length of hospitalization, complications, postoperative Harris hip score, and need for reoperation were recorded. Group B had significantly higher blood loss, increased surgical time and length of hospitalization compared to group A patients. The Harris hip score was significantly higher in group B at the 3, 6, and 12-month follow-up evaluations; however, the differences were no longer significant at the 24-month evaluation. The overall complications rate was 18.6% (13 patients) in group A compared to 25.7% (18 patients) in group B; this was not statistically significant (P = 0.309). A statistically significant difference was found regarding reoperation rate in group A (11.4%, eight patients) compared to group B (1.4%, one patient) (P = 0.016). Arthroplasty compared to internal fixation for displaced femoral neck fractures is associated with a significantly higher functional score and lower risk of reoperation at the cost of greater infection rates, blood loss, and operative time

Electron correlation in two-photon double ionization of helium from attosecond to FEL pulses

We investigate the role of electron correlation in the two-photon double ionization of helium for ultrashort XUV pulses with durations ranging from a hundred attoseconds to a few femtoseconds. We perform time-dependent ab initio calculations for pulses with mean frequencies in the so-called "sequential" regime (photon energy above 54.4 eV). Electron correlation induced by the time correlation between emission events manifests itself in the angular distribution of the ejected electrons, which strongly depends on the energy sharing between them. We show that for ultrashort pulses two-photon double ionization probabilities scale non-uniformly with pulse duration depending on the energy sharing between the electrons. Most interestingly we find evidence for an interference between direct ("nonsequential") and indirect ("sequential") double photo-ionization with intermediate shake-up states, the strength of which is controlled by the pulse duration. This observation may provide a route toward measuring the pulse duration of FEL pulses.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figure