SMS texts on corruption help Ugandan voters hold elected councillors accountable at the polls

Many politicians manipulate information to prevent voters from holding them accountable; however, mobile text messages may make it easier for nongovernmental organizations to credibly share information on official corruption that is difficult for politicians to counter directly. We test the potential for texts on budget management to improve democratic accountability by conducting a large (n = 16,083) randomized controlled trial during the 2016 Ugandan district elections. In cooperation with a local partner, we compiled, simplified, and text-messaged official information on irregularities in local government budgets. Verified recipients of messages that described more irregularities than expected reported voting for incumbent councillors 6% less often; verified recipients of messages conveying fewer irregularities than expected reported voting for incumbent councillors 5% more often. The messages had no observable effect on votes for incumbent council chairs, potentially due to voters\u27 greater reliance on other sources of information for higher profile elections. These mixed results suggest that text messages on budget corruption help voters hold some politicians accountable in settings where elections are not free and fair

ESTIMATING MOOSE ABUNDANCE IN LINEAR SUBARCTIC HABITATS IN LOW SNOW CONDITIONS WITH DISTANCE SAMPLING AND A KERNEL ESTIMATOR

Moose (Alces alces) are colonizing previously unoccupied habitat along the tributaries of the lower Kuskokwim River within the Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge (YDNWR) of western Alaska. We delineated a new survey area to encompass these narrow (0.7–4.3 km) riparian corridors that are bounded by open tundra and routinely experience winter conditions that limit snow cover and depth necessary for traditional moose surveys. We tested a line-transect distance sampling approach as an alternative to estimate moose abundance in this region. Additionally, we compared standard semi-parametric detection functions available in the program Distance to a nonparametric kernel-based estimator not previously used for moose distance data. A double-observer technique was used to verify that the probability of detection at the minimum sighting distance was 1.0 (standard assumption). Average moose group size was 2.03 and not correlated with distance from the transect line. The top semi-parametric model in the program Distance was a hazard-rate key function with no expansion terms. This model estimated average probability of detection as 0.70 with an estimated abundance of 352 moose (95% CI = 237–540). The CV for the semi-parametric model was 20% and had an estimated bias of 1.4%. The nonparametric kernel-based model had an average probability of detection of 0.73 and an estimated abundance of 340 (95% CI = 238–472) moose. The CV for the kernel method was 18% and the estimated bias was <0.001%. Line-transect distance sampling with a helicopter worked well in the narrow riparian corridors with low snow conditions, and survey costs were similar to traditional surveys with fixed-wing aircraft. The kernel estimator also performed well compared to the standard semi-parametric models used in program Distance. Our technique provides a viable approach for surveying moose in similar areas that have restrictive conditions for standard aerial surveys

Information about service provision in Uganda is insufficient to affect voting behaviour

The quality of service provision in Uganda varies greatly across regions and between villages, and yet evidence suggests citizens’ are unable to assess these differences. A research experiment used SMS messages about public services to help Ugandans make informed voting decisions, but it found no effect on voting outcomes. Here is why information alone is sometimes insufficient to affect political behaviour

Individualized text messages about public services fail to sway voters: evidence from a field experiment on Ugandan elections

Mobile communication technologies can provide citizens access to information that is tailored to their specific circumstances. Such technologies may therefore increase citizens' ability to vote in line with their interests and hold politicians accountable. In a large-scale randomized controlled trial in Uganda (n = 16,083), we investigated whether citizens who receive private, timely, and individualized text messages by mobile phone about public services in their community punished or rewarded incumbents in local elections in line with the information. Respondents claimed to find the messages valuable and there is evidence that they briefly updated their beliefs based on the messages; however, the treatment did not cause increased votes for incumbents where public services were better than expected nor decreased votes where public services were worse than anticipated. The considerable knowledge gaps among citizens identified in this study indicate potential for communication technologies to effectively share civic information. Yet the findings imply that when the attribution of public service outcomes is difficult, even individualized information is unlikely to affect voting behavior

Dynamic Responses of Calving Caribou to Oilfields in Northern Alaska

Past research has suggested that during the calving period, caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in Arctic Alaska generally avoid areas within 1 km of oilfield roads with traffic. However, avoidance is not absolute, and caribou may habituate to infrastructure (e.g., buildings, roads, well pads) and human activity. We conducted road-based surveys of caribou in oilfields on Alaska’s Arctic Coastal Plain during the late calving and post-calving periods of June in 2000–02. We recorded location, composition, and behavior of caribou groups located less than 1 km from active gravel roads and production pads. Caribou groups with calves were on average distributed farther from oilfield infrastructure than were groups without calves, but habituation to oilfield activities, indicated by decreased avoidance, occurred at similar rates for groups with and without calves. During the calving period, sighting rates were greater in areas of low human activity, and calf percentages tended to be greater at night when oilfield activity was reduced. Caribou groups were on average closer to infrastructure during the post-calving periods than during the calving periods in 2000 and 2001, but not in 2002. In 2002, when snow melted early, caribou groups were closer to infrastructure during the calving period than in 2000 and 2001, when snow melted later, emphasizing the importance of examining environmental variables when investigating the dynamic interactions of caribou and oilfields. Overall, caribou appeared to habituate to active oilfield infrastructure after the calving period in 2000, late in the calving period in 2001, and likely before our sampling period in 2002. The timing of annual rehabituation was positively correlated with timing of spring snowmelt. Land and wildlife managers can use information from this study to develop calving period-specific mitigation measures that are more effective and flexible.Selon des recherches antérieures, pendant sa période de vêlage, le caribou (Rangifer tarandus) de l’Alaska arctique évite généralement les régions se trouvant à l’intérieur d’un kilomètre des routes où circulent des véhicules menant aux chantiers pétroliers. Cependant, cet évitement n’est pas absolu, et le caribou peut s’accoutumer aux infrastructures (comme les bâtiments, les routes et les chantiers) et à l’activité humaine. Nous avons effectué le dénombrement des caribous près des routes des champs de pétrole de la plaine côtière arctique de l’Alaska vers la fin de la période de vêlage et après la période de vêlage de juin 2000 à 2002. Nous avons consigné l’emplacement, la composition et le comportement des groupes de caribous se trouvant à moins d’un kilomètre des routes de gravier et des chantiers de production en activité. En moyenne, les caribous qui avaient des petits se tenaient plus loin des infrastructures pétrolières que les groupes de caribous qui n’avaient pas de petits. Cela dit, l’accoutumance aux activités pétrolières, dénotée par un moins grand évitement, survenait à des taux semblables pour les groupes qui avaient des petits et les groupes qui n’en avaient pas. Pendant la période de vêlage, les taux d’observation de caribous étaient plus élevés dans les régions où il y avait peu d’activité humaine, et les pourcentages de petits avaient tendance à être plus élevés la nuit, lorsqu’il y avait peu de va-et-vient aux chantiers. En moyenne, les groupes de caribous s’approchaient plus des infrastructures pendant les périodes suivant le vêlage des années 2000 et 2001, mais pas en 2002. En 2002, quand la neige a fondu plus tôt que d’habitude, les groupes de caribous s’approchaient plus des infrastructures pendant la période de vêlage qu’en 2000 et 2001, lorsque la neige a fondu plus tard. Cela fait ressortir l’importance de tenir compte des variables environnementales lorsque nous faisons des enquêtes sur les interactions dynamiques entre les caribous et les champs de pétrole. Dans l’ensemble, les caribous semblaient s’accoutumer aux infrastructures pétrolières en activité après la période de vêlage en 2000, puis vers la fin de la période de vêlage en 2001, et vraisemblablement avant notre période d’échantillonnage en 2002. Le moment de l’accoutumance annuelle coïncidait positivement avec le moment de la fonte des neiges au printemps. Les gestionnaires des terres et de la faune peuvent se servir de l’information émanant de cette étude pour élaborer des mesures d’atténuation tenant compte de la période de vêlage, mesures qui sont plus efficaces et qui présentent plus de souplesse

Binary Cosmic Strings

The properties of cosmic strings have been investigated in detail for their implications in early-universe cosmology. Although many variations of the basic structure have been discovered, with implications for both the microscopic and macroscopic properties of cosmic strings, the cylindrical symmetry of the short-distance structure of the string is generally unaffected. In this paper we describe some mechanisms leading to an asymmetric structure of the string core, giving the defects a quasi-two-dimensional character. We also begin to investigate the consequences of this internal structure for the microscopic and macroscopic physics.Comment: 19 pages; uses harvmac (not included

Perfect weddings abroad

Approximately 16% of UK couples are currently married abroad. However, academic or practitioner focused research that explores the complex nature of a couple’s buying preferences or the development of innovative marketing strategies by businesses operating within the weddings abroad niche sector, is almost non-existent. This exploratory paper examines the role and relevance of marketing within the weddings abroad sector. The complex nature of customer needs in this high emotional and involvement experience, are identified and explored. A case study of Perfect Weddings Abroad Ltd highlights distinctive features and characteristics. Social networking and the use of home-workers, with a focus on reassurance and handholding are important tools used to develop relationships with customers. These tools and techniques help increase the tangibility of a weddings abroad package. Clusters of complementary services that are synergistic and provide sources of competitive advantage are identified and an agenda for future research is developed

SLIM Ultrahigh Resolution Ion Mobility Spectrometry Separations of Isotopologues and Isotopomers Reveal Mobility Shifts due to Mass Distribution Changes

We report on separations of ion isotopologues and isotopomers using ultrahigh-resolution traveling wave-based Structures for Lossless Ion Manipulations with serpentine ultralong path and extended routing ion mobility spectrometry coupled to mass spectrometry (SLIM SUPER IMS-MS). Mobility separations of ions from the naturally occurring ion isotopic envelopes (e.g., [M], [M+1], [M+2], ... ions) showed the first and second isotopic peaks (i.e., [M+1] and [M+2]) for various tetraalkylammonium ions could be resolved from their respective monoisotopic ion peak ([M]) after SLIM SUPER IMS with resolving powers of ∼400–600. Similar separations were obtained for other compounds (e.g., tetrapeptide ions). Greater separation was obtained using argon versus helium drift gas, as expected from the greater reduced mass contribution to ion mobility described by the Mason–Schamp relationship. To more directly explore the role of isotopic substitutions, we studied a mixture of specific isotopically substituted (15N, 13C, and 2H) protonated arginine isotopologues. While the separations in nitrogen were primarily due to their reduced mass differences, similar to the naturally occurring isotopologues, their separations in helium, where higher resolving powers could also be achieved, revealed distinct additional relative mobility shifts. These shifts appeared correlated, after correction for the reduced mass contribution, with changes in the ion center of mass due to the different locations of heavy atom substitutions. The origin of these apparent mass distribution-induced mobility shifts was then further explored using a mixture of Iodoacetyl Tandem Mass Tag (iodoTMT) isotopomers (i.e., each having the same exact mass, but with different isotopic substitution sites). Again, the observed mobility shifts appeared correlated with changes in the ion center of mass leading to multiple monoisotopic mobilities being observed for some isotopomers (up to a ∼0.04% difference in mobility). These mobility shifts thus appear to reflect details of the ion structure, derived from the changes due to ion rotation impacting collision frequency or momentum transfer, and highlight the potential for new approaches for ion structural characterization

Identification of a novel locus on chromosome 2q13, which predisposes to clinical vertebral fractures independently of bone density

OBJECTIVES: To identify genetic determinants of susceptibility to clinical vertebral fractures, which is an important complication of osteoporosis. METHODS: Here we conduct a genome-wide association study in 1553 postmenopausal women with clinical vertebral fractures and 4340 controls, with a two-stage replication involving 1028 cases and 3762 controls. Potentially causal variants were identified using expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) data from transiliac bone biopsies and bioinformatic studies. RESULTS: A locus tagged by rs10190845 was identified on chromosome 2q13, which was significantly associated with clinical vertebral fracture (P=1.04×10-9) with a large effect size (OR 1.74, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.6). Bioinformatic analysis of this locus identified several potentially functional SNPs that are associated with expression of the positional candidate genes TTL (tubulin tyrosine ligase) and SLC20A1 (solute carrier family 20 member 1). Three other suggestive loci were identified on chromosomes 1p31, 11q12 and 15q11. All these loci were novel and had not previously been associated with bone mineral density or clinical fractures. CONCLUSION: We have identified a novel genetic variant that is associated with clinical vertebral fractures by mechanisms that are independent of BMD. Further studies are now in progress to validate this association and evaluate the underlying mechanism.Funding: ORCADES was supported by the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government (CZB/4/276, CZB/4/710), the Royal Society, the MRC Human Genetics Unit, Arthritis Research UK and the European Union framework programme 6 EUROSPAN project (contract no. LSHG-CT-2006-018947). DNA extractions were performed at the Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Facility in Edinburgh. We would like to acknowledge the invaluable contributions of Lorraine Anderson and the research nurses in Orkney, the administrative team in Edinburgh and the people of Orkney. CABRIO was supported by the Instituto de Salud Carlos III and Fondos FEDER from the EU (PI 11/1092 and PI12/615). The AOGC study was funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (Project grant 511132). Lothian Birth Cohort 1921 phenotype collection was supported by the UK’s Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), The Royal Society and The Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government. Phenotype collection in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 was supported by Age UK (The Disconnected Mind project). Genotyping of the cohorts was funded by the BBSRC. The work was undertaken by the University of Edinburgh Centre for Cognitive Ageing and Cognitive Epidemiology, part of the cross council Lifelong Health and Wellbeing Initiative (MR/K026992/1). Funding from the BBSRC and Medical Research Council (MRC) is gratefully acknowledged. Research work on Slovenian case and control samples was funded by Slovenian Research Agency (project no. P3-0298 and J3-2330). The Danish National Birth Cohort (DNBC) is a result of major grants from the Danish National Research Foundation, the Danish Pharmacists’Fund, the Egmont Foundation, the March of Dimes Birth Defects Foundation, the Augustinus Foundation and the Health Fund of the Danish Health Insurance Societies. The DNBC biobank is a part of the Danish National Biobank resource, which is supported by the Novo Nordisk Foundation. Dr Bjarke Feenstra is supported by an Oak Foundation Fellowship. The Framingham Study was funded by grants from the US National Institute for Arthritis, Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases and National Institute on Aging (R01 AR 41398 and R01 AR061162; DPK and R01 AR 050066; DK). The Framingham Heart Study of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health and Boston University School of Medicine were supported by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute’s Framingham Heart Study (N01-HC-25195) and its contract with Affymetrix, Inc. for genotyping services (N02-HL-6-4278). Analyses reflect intellectual input and resource development from the Framingham Heart Study investigators participating in the SNP Health Association Resource (SHARe) project. A portion of this research was conducted using the Linux Cluster for Genetic Analysis (LinGA-II) funded by the Robert Dawson Evans Endowment of the Department of Medicine at Boston University School of Medicine and Boston Medical Center. This research was performed within the Genetic Factors for Osteoporosis (GEFOS) consortium, funded by the European Commission (HEALTH-F2-2008-201865-GEFOS).Acknowledgments: The authors are grateful to the patients and controls from the different centres who agreed to participate in this study. We would like to thank Ms Dilruba Kabir at the Rheumatology and Bone Disease Unit, CGEM-IGMM, Edinburgh, UK; Mr Matt Sims at the MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, UK; Ms Mila Jhamai and Ms Sarah Higgins at the Genetics Laboratory of Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; Ms Johanna Hadler, Ms Kathryn A Addison and Ms Karena Pryce of the University of Queensland Centre for Clinical Genomics, Brisbane, Australia, for technical support on the genotyping stage; and Mr Marijn Verkerk and Dr Anis Abuseiris at the Genetics Laboratory of Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, for assistance on the data analysis. We would like to acknowledge the invaluable contributions of Lorraine Anderson and the research nurses in Orkney, the administrative team in Edinburgh and the people of Orkney. We would also like to thank Professor Nick Gilbert and Dr Giovanny Rodriguez-Blanco for their comments and advice on the manuscript preparation. This study makes use of data generated by the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium. A full list of the investigators who contributed to the generation of the data is available at www.wtccc.org.uk