Extension of summer (June–August) temperature records for northern Inner Mongolia (1715–2008), China using tree rings

This paper presents a spatially and temporally improved reconstruction of mean summer (June–August) temperature derived from tree-ring width data of Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) from the northern Great Xing'an Mountains, Northeast China. Three new chronologies were added to the original 2011 reconstruction, and the reconstruction extended back to AD 1715. The reconstruction was generated using a simple linear regression method, verified by independent meteorological data, and accounts for 47.0% of the actual temperature variance during the common period (1957–2008). The reconstruction captures decadal and century-scale regional temperature variability, such as cold decades (1940s, 1930s, 1790s, 1950s and 1850s), warm decades (2000s, 1870s, 1750s, 1980s and 1840s), a cold half-century (ca. 1750–1799), and a warm half-century (ca. 1900–1949). It also reveals slightly higher frequency of cold years (20.4%) than warm years (18.0%), and a recent warming trend. Compared to the original 2011 reconstruction, this reconstruction has lower inter-annual temperature variability, high explained variance and high representativeness of regional climate. The reconstruction also correlates with the East Asian Monsoon and the Pacific Ocean signals, and indicates the feasibility of using tree rings from high latitude Northeast China to reconstruct summer temperature in permafrost forest environments

Response of radial growth to warming and CO2 enrichment in southern Northeast China: a case of Pinus tabulaeformis

The southern part of northeast China has experienced a marked warming and drying climate. We provide dendrochronological evidence for atmospheric CO2 fertilization and the impacts of warming on Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) growth. The results of this study show that increased temperature has a negative effect on pine growth during a major part of the growing season and a weakly positive effects on growth during the remaining portion of the year. The monthly temperatures explain ca. 20 % of the total variance in the annual radial growth of Chinese pine from 1901 to 2009. An increase of approximately 3–5 °C is the maximum that Chinese pine can tolerate in this region with an annual rainfall of 500–700 mm. Our results suggest a that there is a proportional response to warming only up to a maximum of 1 °C warming, and indicate the complexities of succession in forest ecosystems in terms of adaptation and evolution in local pine populations under a rapid warming condition. In addition, increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations have a positive effect on tree growth. This effect can be detected with conventional dendrochronological methods

Experiments based on blue intensity for reconstructing North Pacific temperatures along the Gulf of Alaska

We gratefully acknowledge the National Science Foundation’s Paleoclimatic Perspectives on Climatic Change (P2C2) grant nos. AGS 1159430, AGS 1502186, AGS 1502150, and PLR 15-04134.Ring-width (RW) records from the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) have yielded a valuable long-term perspective for North Pacific changes on decadal to longer timescales in prior studies but contain a broad winter to late summer seasonal climate response. Similar to the highly climate-sensitive maximum latewood density (MXD) proxy, the blue intensity (BI) parameter has recently been shown to correlate well with year-to-year warm-season temperatures for a number of sites at northern latitudes. Since BI records are much less labour intensive and expensive to generate than MXD, such data hold great potential value for future tree-ring studies in the GOA and other regions in mid- to high latitudes. Here we explore the potential for improving tree-ring-based reconstructions using combinations of RW- and BI-related parameters (latewood BI and delta BI) from an experimental subset of samples at eight mountain hemlock (Tsuga mertensiana) sites along the GOA. This is the first study for the hemlock genus using BI data. We find that using either inverted latewood BI (LWBinv) or delta BI (DB) can improve the amount of explained temperature variance by > 10 % compared to RW alone, although the optimal target season shrinks to June–September, which may have implications for studying ocean–atmosphere variability in the region. One challenge in building these BI records is that resin extraction did not remove colour differences between the heartwood and sapwood; thus, long term trend biases, expressed as relatively warm temperatures in the 18th century, were noted when using the LWBinv data. Using DB appeared to overcome these trend biases, resulting in a reconstruction expressing 18th–19th century temperatures ca. 0.5 °C cooler than the 20th–21st centuries. This cool period agrees well with previous dendroclimatic studies and the glacial advance record in the region. Continuing BI measurement in the GOA region must focus on sampling and measuring more trees per site (> 20) and compiling more sites to overcome site-specific factors affecting climate response and using subfossil material to extend the record. Although LWBinv captures the inter-annual climate signal more strongly than DB, DB appears to better capture long-term secular trends that agree with other proxy archives in the region. Great care is needed, however, when implementing different detrending options and more experimentation is necessary to assess the utility of DB for different conifer species around the Northern Hemisphere.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

An Ensemble Weighting Approach for Dendroclimatology : Drought Reconstructions for the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau

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Is eastern Mongolia drying? A long-term perspective of a multidecadal trend

Temperatures in semiarid Mongolia have rapidly risen over the past few decades, and increases in drought, urban development, mining, and agriculture have intensified demands on limited water resources. Understanding long-term streamflow variation is critical for Mongolia, particularly if alterations in streamflow are being considered and because of the potential negative impacts of drought on the animal agriculture sector. Here, we present a temporally and spatially improved streamflow reconstruction for the Kherlen River. We have added 11 new records in comparison with two in the original 2001 reconstruction. This new reconstruction extends from 1630 to 2007 and places the most recent droughts in a multicentennial perspective. We find that variations in streamflow have been much greater in the past than in the original study. There was higher variability in the mid to late 1700s, ranging from severe and extended drought conditions from 1723 to 1739 and again in 1768–1778 to two decadal length episodes of very wet conditions in the mid 1700s and late 1700s. Reduced amplitude is seen in the mid-1800s, and several pluvial events are reconstructed for the 1900s. Although recent droughts are severe and disturbing economic and ecological systems in Mongolia and it appears that eastern Mongolia is drying, the drying trend since the late 1900s might in fact be accentuated by a change from a particularly wet era in Mongolia. The recent drought might be a return to more characteristic hydroclimatic conditions of the past four centuries in Mongolia

Tree-ring based precipitation variability since AD 1828 in northwestern Liaoning, China

A 183-year record of total precipitation from September to current July was reconstructed using tree rings from Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) to explore regional moisture variations in northwestern Liaoning province. The reconstruction accounts for 35.4% of the total variance of the instrumental precipitation from 1957 to 2010. The reconstruction shows eleven persistent dry periods (e.g. 1856–1866, 1886–1891, 1898–1905), and eleven persistent wet periods (e.g. 1835–1855, 1867–1878, 1892–1897). Spectral analysis of the reconstruction shows several significant spectral peaks in the ca. 2–4-year periodicity band, suggesting inter-annual variability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The precipitation reconstruction shows correlations related to the East Asian Monsoon and possible teleconnection of regional moisture variations to Pacific Ocean signals, such as El Niño and La Niña

A long-term context (931–2005 C.E.) for rapid warming over Central Asia

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2014. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Quaternary Science Reviews 121 (2015): 89-97, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.05.020.Warming over Mongolia and adjacent Central Asia has been unusually rapid over the past few decades, particularly in the summer, with surface temperature anomalies higher than for much of the globe. With few temperature station records available in this remote region prior to the 1950s, paleoclimatic data must be used to understand annual-to-centennial scale climate variability, to local response to large-scale forcing mechanisms, and the significance of major features of the past millennium such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA) both of which can vary globally. Here we use an extensive collection of living and subfossil wood samples from temperature-sensitive trees to produce a millennial-length, validated reconstruction of summer temperatures for Mongolia and Central Asia from 931 to 2005 CE. This tree-ring reconstruction shows general agreement with the MCA (warming) and LIA (cooling) trends, a significant volcanic signature, and warming in the 20th and 21st Century. Recent warming (2000-2005) exceeds that from any other time and is concurrent with, and likely exacerbated, the impact of extreme drought (1999-2002) that resulted in massive livestock loss across Mongolia.This research was supported by the National Science Foundation under grants AGS-PRF #1137729, ATM0117442, and AGS0402474

A long-term context (931–2005 C.E.) for rapid warming over Central Asia

Warming over Mongolia and Central Asia has been unusually rapid over the past few decades, particularly in the summer, with surface temperature anomalies higher than for much of the globe. With few temperature station records available in this remote region prior to the 1950s, paleoclimatic data must be used to understand annual-to-centennial scale climate variability, local response to large-scale forcing mechanisms, and the significance of major features of the past millennium such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA) both of which can vary globally. Here we use an extensive collection of living and subfossil wood samples from temperature-sensitive trees to produce a millennial-length, validated reconstruction of summer temperatures for Mongolia and Central Asia from 931 to 2005 CE. This tree-ring reconstruction shows general agreement with the MCA (warming) and LIA (cooling) trends, a significant volcanic signature, and warming in the 20th and 21st Century. Recent warming (2000–2005) exceeds that from any other time and is concurrent with, and likely exacerbated, the impact of extreme drought (1999–2002) that resulted in massive livestock loss across Mongolia

Dzuds, droughts, and livestock mortality in Mongolia

Recent incidences of mass livestock mortality, known as dzud, have called into question the sustainability of pastoral nomadic herding, the cornerstone of Mongolian culture. A total of 20 million head of livestock perished in the mortality events of 2000–2002, and 2009–2010. To mitigate the effects of such events on the lives of herders, international agencies such as the World Bank are taking increasing interest in developing tailored market-based solutions like index-insurance. Their ultimate success depends on understanding the historical context and underlying causes of mortality. In this paper we examine mortality in 21 Mongolian aimags (provinces) between 1955 and 2013 in order to explain its density independent cause(s) related to climate variability. We show that livestock mortality is most strongly linked to winter (November–February) temperatures, with incidences of mass mortality being most likely to occur because of an anomalously cold winter. Additionally, we find prior summer (July–September) drought and precipitation deficit to be important triggers for mortality that intensifies the effect of upcoming winter temperatures on livestock. Our density independent mortality model based on winter temperature, summer drought, summer precipitation, and summer potential evaporanspiration explains 48.4% of the total variability in the mortality dataset. The Mongolian index based livestock insurance program uses a threshold of 6% mortality to trigger payouts. We find that on average for Mongolia, the probability of exceedance of 6% mortality in any given year is 26% over the 59 year period between 1955 and 2013

Accelerated recent warming and temperature variability over the past eight centuries in the central Asian Altai from blue intensity in tree rings

Funding: National Science Foundation (NSF). Grant Number: 1737788 and NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoc Fellow Program. Grant Number: NA18NWS4620043B.Warming in Central Asia has been accelerating over the past three decades and is expected to intensify through the end of this century. Here, we develop a summer temperature reconstruction for western Mongolia spanning eight centuries (1269–2004 C.E.) using delta blue intensity measurements from annual rings of Siberian larch. A significant cooling response is observed in the year following major volcanic events and up to five years post-eruption. Observed summer temperatures since the 1990s are the warmest over the past eight centuries, an observation that is also well captured in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate model simulations. Projections for summer temperature relative to observations suggest further warming of between ∼3°C and 6°C by the end of the century (2075–2099 cf. 1950–2004) under the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) emission scenarios. We conclude that projected future warming lies beyond the range of natural climate variability for the past millennium as estimated by our reconstruction.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe