Small caps in international equity portfolios: the effects of variance risk

We show that predictable covariances between means and variances of stock returns may have a first order effect on portfolio composition. In an international asset menu that includes both European and North American small capitalization equity indices, we find that a three-state, heteroskedastic regime switching VAR model is required to provide a good fit to weekly return data and to accurately predict the dynamics in the joint density of returns. As a result of the non-linear dynamic features revealed by the data, small cap portfolios become riskier in bear markets, i.e. display negative co-skewness with other stock indices. Because of this property, a power utility investor ought to hold a well diversified portfolio, despite the high risk premium and Sharpe ratios offered by small capitalization stocks. On the contrary small caps command large optimal weights when the investor ignores variance risk, by incorrectly assuming joint normality of returns. These results provide the missing partial equilibrium rationale for the presence of co skewness in the empirical asset pricing models that have been proposed to explain the cross-section of stock returns.Investments, Foreign

Ex Post Portfolio Performance with Predictable Skewness and Kurtosis

This paper examines the ex-post performance of optimal portfolios with predictable returns, when the investor horizon ranges from one month to ten years. Due to the investor's ability to anticipate shifts from bull to bear markets, predictability involves the risk premium, volatility and correlations, and may extend to third and fourth moments. We analyze three different equity portfolios datasets, each covering more than eight indexes, including the commonly used US Industry and International Book-to-Market portfolios. Allowing for regimes improves portfolio performance for at least a subset of investment horizons in all datasets. Despite large non-normalities in both the Industry and the BM dataset, gains from predicting higher order moments obtain only in the latter - where third rather than fourth moments matter. The equally weighted strategy usually leads to lower ex-post performance measures than optimizing ones, despite simple econometrics and power utility preferences underlying optimal strategies.Stock Market Regimes; Return Predictability; Skew and Kurtosis; Equity Diversification

Managing international portfolios with small capitalization stocks

In the context of an international portfolio diversification problem, we find that small capitalization equity portfolios become riskier in bear markets, i.e. display negative co-skewness with other stock indices and high co-kurtosis. Because of this feature, a power utility investor ought to hold a well-diversified portfolio, despite the high risk premium and Sharpe ratios offered by small capitalization stocks. On the contrary small caps command large optimal weights when the investor ignores variance risk, by incorrectly assuming joint normality of returns. The dominant factor in inducing such shifts in optimal weights is represented by the co-skewness, the predictable, time-varying covariance between returns and volatilities. We calculate that if an investor were to ignore co-skewness and co-kurtosis risk, he would suffer a certainty-equivalent reduction in utility equal to 300 basis points per year under the steady-state distribution for returns. Our results are qualitatively robust when both European and North American small caps are introduced in the analysis. Therefore this paper offers robust evidence that predictable covariances between means and variances of stock returns may have a first order effect on portfolio composition.Investments, Foreign ; Stocks

Intercorporate guarantees, leverage and taxes

This paper characterizes optimal intercorporate guarantees, under the classical trade-off between bankruptcy costs and taxation. Conditional guarantees, allowing the guarantor - or Holding company - to maintain limited liability vis-a-vis the beneficiary - or Subsidiary - maximize joint value. They indeed achieve the highest tax savings net of default costs. We provide conditions ensuring that - at the optimum - guarantees increase total debt, which bears mostly on the Subsidiary. This difference in optimal leverage between Holding company and Subsidiary explains why optimal conditional guarantees (i) generate value independently of cash flow correlation (ii) are unilateral rather than mutual, at least for moderate default costs (iii) dominate the unconditional ones, that are embedded in mergers, at least when firms have high cash-flow correlation. We also endogenize the choice of the guarantor, showing that it has higher proportional bankruptcy costs, lower tax rates and bigger size.debt; taxes; bankruptcy costs; limited liability; capital structure; subsidiary; groups; mergers

Ownership links, leverage and credit risk

This paper explores the relationship between optimal leverage and credit risk under ownership links. It develops a structural model of a parent and a subsidiary, which issues debt in its own name under a guarantee by the parent. We find that zero leverage can be optimal for the guarantor, while leverage close to one can be optimal for the guaranteed company, as this optimally exploits the tax shield of debt while minimizing default costs. As far as credit risk is considered, their joint default probability is lower than that of stand alone units, despite their higher debt capacity. Higher group optimal leverage and lower default probability increase value with respect to conglomerate mergers and stand alone arrangements. Default probability, spreads and loss given default of the subsidiary are higher than for a stand alone with similar size and volatility. We also study the situation when the subsidiary is constrained to a debt equal to the optimal stand alone level. Only in this case group credit risk depends on the ownership share. Consistently with intuition, our unconstrained model rationalizes the capital structure typical of private equity; the constrained model instead is able to explain observed features of public business groups and more regulated environments.credit risk; default risk; structural models; optimal leverage; zero leverage; ownership structure; parent-subsidiary

Investing for the long-run in European real estate

We calculate optimal portfolio choices for a long-horizon, risk-averse investor who diversifies among European stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash, when excess asset returns are predictable. Simulations are performed for scenarios involving different risk aversion levels, horizons, and statistical models capturing predictability in risk premia. Importantly, under one of the scenarios, the investor takes into account the parameter uncertainty implied by the use of estimated coefficients to characterize predictability. We find that real estate ought to play a significant role in optimal portfolio choices, with weights between 12 and 44 percent. Under plausible assumptions, the welfare costs of either ignoring predictability or restricting portfolio choices to traditional financial assets only are found to be in the order of 150-300 basis points per year. These results are robust to changes in the benchmarks and in the statistical framework.Real estate investment ; Rate of return ; European Union

International diversification and industry-related labor income risk

Do equity markets help diversifying away industry-related labor income risk? This paper reconsiders the hedging role of stock markets by focusing on international equity diversification, rather than domestic asset allocation, and on industry wage, rather than individual labor income. We test for differences in implied equilibrium equity portfolios across investors belonging to different industry-country pairs. We compare these industry-based portfolio holdings to the one that is optimal for an investor endowed with the average home-country labor income. Our results resurrect the role of equities in hedging wage risk by uncovering remarkable heterogeneity across industries within each investing country. Our analysis also delivers insights concerning the role of occupational pension funds in designing optimal portfolios for their members.optimal portfolio choice; international diversification; labor income risk; industry-specific human capital; occupational pension funds

Time and risk diversification in real estate investments: assessing the ex post economic value

Welfare gains to long-horizon investors may derive from time diversification that exploits non-zero intertemporal return correlations associated with predictable returns. Real estate may thus become more desirable if its returns are negatively serially correlated. While it could be important for long horizon investors, time diversification has been mostly investigated in asset menus without real estate and focusing on in-sample experiments. This paper evaluates ex post, out-of-sample gains from diversification when E-REITs belong to the investment opportunity set. We find that diversification into REITs increases both the Sharpe ratio and the certainty equivalent of wealth for all investment horizons and for both Classical and Bayesian (who account for parameter uncertainty) investors. The increases in Sharpe ratios are often statistically significant. However, the out-of sample average Sharpe ratio and realized expected utility of long-horizon portfolios are frequently lower than that of a one-period portfolio, which casts doubts on the value of time diversification.Real estate investment

1/N and long run optimal portfolios: results for mixed asset menus

Recent research [e.g., DeMiguel, Garlappi and Uppal, (2009), Rev. Fin. Studies] has cast doubts on the out-of-sample performance of optimizing portfolio strategies relative to naive, equally weighted ones. However, existing results concern the simple case in which an investor has a one-month horizon and meanvariance preferences. In this paper, we examine whether their result holds for longer investment horizons, when the asset menu includes bonds and real estate beyond stocks and cash, and when the investor is characterized by constant relative risk aversion preferences which are not locally mean-variance for long horizons. Our experiments indicates that power utility investors with horizons of one year and longer would have on average benefited, ex-post, from an optimizing strategy that exploits simple linear predictability in asset returns over the period January 1995 - December 2007. This result is insensitive to the degree of risk aversion, to the number of predictors being included in the forecasting model, and to the deduction of transaction costs from measured portfolio performance.Econometric models ; Asset pricing ; Rate of return

Public policy and the creation of active venture capital markets

We study how public policy can contribute to increase the share of early stage and high-tech venture capital investments, thus helping the development of active venture capital markets. A simple extension of the seminal model by Holmstrom and Tirole (1997) provides a theoretical base for our analysis. We then explore a unique panel of data for 14 European countries between 1988 and 2001. We have several novel findings. First, the opening of stock markets targeted at entrepreneurial companies positively affects the shares of early stage and high-tech venture capital investments; reductions in capital gains tax rates have a similar, albeit weaker, effect. Second, a reduction in labor regulation creases the share of high-tech investments. Finally, we find no evidence of a shortage of supply of venture capital funds, and no evidence of an effect of increased public R&D spending on the share of high-tech or early stage venture capital investments. JEL Classification: G10, G24, H20, O30Barriers to Entrepreneurship, Capital Gains Tax, Public Policy, Public R&D Expenditure, Stock Markets, Venture Capital