Assessing global resource use and greenhouse emissions to 2050, with ambitious resource efficiency and climate mitigation policies

Achieving sustainable development requires the decoupling of natural resource use and environmental pressures from economic growth and improvements in living standards. G7 leaders and others have called for improved resource efficiency, along with inclusive economic growth and deep cuts in global greenhouse emissions. However, the outlooks for and interactions between global natural resource use, resource efficiency, economic growth and greenhouse emissions are not well understood. We use a novel multi-regional modeling framework to develop projections to 2050 under existing trends and three policy scenarios. We find that resource efficiency could provide pro-growth pro-environment policies with global benefits of USD $2.4 trillion in 2050, and ease the politics of shifting towards sustainability. Under existing trends, resource extraction is projected to increase 119% from 2015 to 2050, from 84 to 184 billion tonnes per annum, while greenhouse gas emissions increase 41%, both driven by the value of global economic activity more than doubling. Resource efficiency and greenhouse abatement slow the growth of global resource extraction, so that in 2050 it is up to 28% lower than in existing trends. Resource efficiency reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 15–20% in 2050, with global emissions falling to 63% below 2015 levels when combined with a 2 °C emissions pathway. In contrast to greenhouse abatement, resource efficiency boosts near-term economic growth. These economic gains more than offset the near-term costs of shifting to a 2 °C emissions pathway, resulting in emissions in 2050 well below current levels, slower growth in resource extractions, and faster economic growth

The implausibility of ‘usual care’ in an open system: sedation and weaning practices in Paediatric Intensive Care Units (PICUs) in the United Kingdom (UK)

Background: The power of the randomised controlled trial depends upon its capacity to operate in a closed system whereby the intervention is the only causal force acting upon the experimental group and absent in the control group, permitting a valid assessment of intervention efficacy. Conversely, clinical arenas are open systems where factors relating to context, resources, interpretation and actions of individuals will affect implementation and effectiveness of interventions. Consequently, the comparator (usual care) can be difficult to define and variable in multi-centre trials. Hence outcomes cannot be understood without considering usual care and factors that may affect implementation and impact on the intervention. Methods: Using a fieldwork approach, we describe PICU context, ‘usual’ practice in sedation and weaning from mechanical ventilation, and factors affecting implementation prior to designing a trial involving a sedation and ventilation weaning intervention. We collected data from 23 UK PICUs between June and November 2014 using observation, individual and multi-disciplinary group interviews with staff. Results: Pain and sedation practices were broadly similar in terms of drug usage and assessment tools. Sedation protocols linking assessment to appropriate titration of sedatives and sedation holds were rarely used (9 % and 4 % of PICUs respectively). Ventilator weaning was primarily a medical-led process with 39 % of PICUs engaging senior nurses in the process: weaning protocols were rarely used (9 % of PICUs). Weaning methods were variably based on clinician preference. No formal criteria or use of spontaneous breathing trials were used to test weaning readiness. Seventeen PICUs (74 %) had prior engagement in multi-centre trials, but limited research nurse availability. Barriers to previous trial implementation were intervention complexity, lack of belief in the evidence and inadequate training. Facilitating factors were senior staff buy-in and dedicated research nurse provision. Conclusions: We examined and identified contextual and organisational factors that may impact on the implementation of our intervention. We found usual practice relating to sedation, analgesia and ventilator weaning broadly similar, yet distinctively different from our proposed intervention, providing assurance in our ability to evaluate intervention effects. The data will enable us to develop an implementation plan; considering these factors we can more fully understand their impact on study outcomes

A guided tour of asynchronous cellular automata

Research on asynchronous cellular automata has received a great amount of attention these last years and has turned to a thriving field. We survey the recent research that has been carried out on this topic and present a wide state of the art where computing and modelling issues are both represented.Comment: To appear in the Journal of Cellular Automat

Therapeutic Hypothermia after In-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in Children

BACKGROUND: Targeted temperature management is recommended for comatose adults and children after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest; however, data on temperature management after in-hospital cardiac arrest are limited. METHODS: In a trial conducted at 37 children’s hospitals, we compared two temperature interventions in children who had had in-hospital cardiac arrest. Within 6 hours after the return of circulation, comatose children older than 48 hours and younger than 18 years of age were randomly assigned to therapeutic hypothermia (target temperature, 33.0°C) or therapeutic normothermia (target temperature, 36.8°C). The primary efficacy outcome, survival at 12 months after cardiac arrest with a score of 70 or higher on the Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales, second edition (VABS-II, on which scores range from 20 to 160, with higher scores indicating better function), was evaluated among patients who had had a VABS-II score of at least 70 before the cardiac arrest. RESULTS: The trial was terminated because of futility after 329 patients had undergone randomization. Among the 257 patients who had a VABS-II score of at least 70 before cardiac arrest and who could be evaluated, the rate of the primary efficacy outcome did not differ significantly between the hypothermia group and the normothermia group (36% [48 of 133 patients] and 39% [48 of 124 patients], respectively; relative risk, 0.92; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.67 to 1.27; P = 0.63). Among 317 patients who could be evaluated for change in neurobehavioral function, the change in VABS-II score from baseline to 12 months did not differ significantly between the groups (P = 0.70). Among 327 patients who could be evaluated for 1-year survival, the rate of 1-year survival did not differ significantly between the hypothermia group and the normothermia group (49% [81 of 166 patients] and 46% [74 of 161 patients], respectively; relative risk, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.85 to 1.34; P = 0.56). The incidences of blood-product use, infection, and serious adverse events, as well as 28-day mortality, did not differ significantly between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Among comatose children who survived in-hospital cardiac arrest, therapeutic hypothermia, as compared with therapeutic normothermia, did not confer a significant benefit in survival with a favorable functional outcome at 1 year. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; THAPCA-IH ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00880087.

Uncovering the nutritional landscape of food

Recent progresses in data-driven analysis methods, including network-based approaches, are revolutionizing many classical disciplines. These techniques can also be applied to food and nutrition, which must be studied to design healthy diets. Using nutritional information from over 1,000 raw foods, we systematically evaluated the nutrient composition of each food in regards to satisfying daily nutritional requirements. The nutrient balance of a food was quantified herein as nutritional fitness, using the food's frequency of occurrence in nutritionally adequate food combinations. Nutritional fitness offers prioritization of recommendable foods within a global network of foods, in which foods are connected based on the similarities of their nutrient compositions. We identified a number of key nutrients, such as choline and alpha-linolenic acid, whose levels in foods can critically affect the foods' nutritional fitness. Analogously, pairs of nutrients can have the same effect. In fact, two nutrients can impact the nutritional fitness synergistically, although the individual nutrients alone may not. This result, involving the tendency among nutrients to show correlations in their abundances across foods, implies a hidden layer of complexity when exploring for foods whose balance of nutrients within pairs holistically helps meet nutritional requirements. Interestingly, foods with high nutritional fitness successfully maintain this nutrient balance. This effect expands our scope to a diverse repertoire of nutrient-nutrient correlations, integrated under a common network framework that yields unexpected yet coherent associations between nutrients. Our nutrient-profiling approach combined with a network-based analysis provides a more unbiased, global view of the relationships between foods and nutrients, and can be extended towards nutritional policies, food marketing, and personalized nutrition.Comment: Supplementary material is available at the journal websit

Child mental health differences amongst ethnic groups in Britain: a systematic review

BACKGROUND: Inter-ethnic differences have been reported for many mental health outcomes in the UK, but no systematic review on child mental health has been published. The aim of this review is to compare the population-based prevalence of child mental disorders between ethnic groups in Britain, and relate these findings to ethnic differences in mental health service use. METHODS: A systematic search of bibliographic databases for population-based and clinic-based studies of children aged 0-19, including all ethnic groups and the main child mental disorders. We synthesised findings by comparing each minority group to the White British study sample. RESULTS: 31 population-based and 18 clinic-based studies met the inclusion criteria. Children in the main minority groups have similar or better mental health than White British children for common disorders, but may have higher rates for some less common conditions. The causes of these differences are unclear. There may be unmet need for services among Pakistani and Bangladeshi children. CONCLUSION: Inter-ethnic differences exist but are largely unexplained. Future studies should address the challenges of cross-cultural psychiatry and investigate reasons for inter-ethnic differences

Prediction of function in daily life following multidisciplinary rehabilitation for individuals with chronic musculoskeletal pain; a prospective study

Background: The prevalence of chronic musculoskeletal pain is high, with widespread negative economic, psychological, and social consequences for the individual. It is therefore important to find ways to predict the outcome of rehabilitation programmes in terms of function in daily life. The aims of this study were to investigate the improvements over time from multidisciplinary rehabilitation in terms of pain and function, and analyse the relative impact of individual and psychosocial factors as predictors of function in daily life in individuals with chronic musculoskeletal pain. Methods: A prospective study was conducted among one hundred and forty three (N = 143) musculoskeletal pain patients. Measures of pain, function, and functional health status were obtained at baseline, after 5 weeks of intensive training, at the end of the 57-week rehabilitation programme, and at a 1 year follow-up, using validated self-administrated measures. Linear regression analysis was applied to investigate the relative impact of musculoskeletal pain, individual- , and psychosocial factors in function. Results: The participants studied showed a significant increase in function during the 57 weeks rehabilitation period. There was also a significant increase in function from the end of the rehabilitation period (57th week) to the one year follow-up measures. Pain intensity associated significantly with pain experience over all measurement periods. High levels of pain intensity (β = .42**) and pain experience (β = .37*), and poor psychological capacity (β = -.68*) at baseline, as well as poor physiological capacity (β = -.44**) and high levels of anxiety (β = .48**) and depression (β = .58***) at the end of the rehabilitation program were the most important prognostic factors of variance in functioning over the 4 measurement periods. Conclusion: The data suggest that physical capacity, emotional distress and coping skills should be priority areas in rehabilitation programmes to improve functioning in daily life

Resource Efficiency: Potential and Economic Implications

Despite enormous progress in the past decades towards improving human prosperity and well-being, this has come at the lasting cost of degradation of the natural environment and depletion of natural resources. Meeting the needs of a growing and increasingly affluent population, will require natural resource extraction to increase from 85 to 186 billion tonnes by 2050. This can cause irreversible environmental damage and endanger the capacity of Earth to continue to provide resources which are essential for human survival and development. Analysis in the report shows that policies and initiatives to improve resource efficiency and tackle climate change can reduce global resource extraction by up to 28 per cent while also boosting the value of world economic activity by 1 per cent in 2050, against the baseline. Such policy actions can also cut global greenhouse gas emissions by around 60 per cent in 2050 relative to 2015 levels. This report has been produced by the UNEP’s International Resource Panel in response to a request by leaders of the G7 nations in the context of efforts to promote resource efficiency as a core element of sustainable development. The report conducts a rigorous survey to assess and articulate the prospects and solutions for resource efficiency. It considers how more efficient use of resources can contribute to economic growth, employment and development, at the same time as reducing the world’s use of materials, energy, biomass and water, and the resulting environmental impacts. The report documents many examples of best practices for increasing the resource efficiency of different sectors from countries around the world. The challenge for policy-makers is to learn from and scale up these good practices, and to conceive and implement a set of transformative policies that will enable countries to reap the associated social, environmental and economic benefits. Ambitious action to use resources in a more efficient and sustainable manner can help place the world on the right track to meet its commitments under the 2030 Agenda on Sustainable Development and the Paris Climate Change Agreement, and thereby to realise a more equitable and sustainable future

STAGES IN THE ORIGIN OF VERTEBRATES: ANALYSIS BY MEANS OF SCENARIOS

Vertebrates lack an epidermal nerve plexus. This feature is common to many invertebrates from which vertebrates differ by an extensive set of shared-derived characters (synapomorphies) derived from the neural crest and epidermal neurogenic placodes. Hence, the hypothesis that the developmental precursor of the epidermal nerve plexus may be homologous to the neural crest and epidermal neurogenic placodes. This account attempts to generate a nested set of scenarios for the prevertebrate-vertebrate transition, associating a presumed sequence of behavioural and environmental changes with the observed phenotypic ones. Toward this end, it integrates morphological, developmental, functional (physiological/behavioural) and some ecological data, as many phenotypic shifts apparently involved associated transitions in several aspects of the animals. The scenarios deal with the origin of embryonic and adult tissues and such major organs as the notochord, the CNS, gills and kidneys and propose a sequence of associated changes. Alternative scenarios are stated as the evidence often remains insufficient for decision. The analysis points to gaps in comprehension of the biology of the animals and therefore suggests further research.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/72629/1/j.1469-185X.1989.tb00471.x.pd