Southgate digital equity tool

Made available with permission from author and publisher.The Southgate Digital Equity Tool has been developed to assist policy makers and practitioners in making informed decisions about the way they engage consumers in services and programs in the digital era. Initially developed for use by health organisations, the tool can be adapted for use by any organisation to guide thinking around the impact of traditional and digital communication on different client/consumer/population groups, with a focus on the impact of shifting to, or increasing, digital engagement with them. The basis for the tool is the assumption that digital engagement strategies will impact on client/consumer groups differently, with a differential impact on intended outcomes, especially on accessibililty of services, information and participation. The tool can be used to examine one strategy or a set of communication strategies which address a particular issue, a geographic area, a group or a population. Part 1 is a Workbook and Part 2 is a Guide to assist in completing the Workbook, including descriptions and examples. The digital equity tool can help you and your organisation to examine: (1) The current mix of communication and engagement modes across a certain service or issue; (2) A proposed change in this mix; (3) The impact of a change in mix retrospectively; (4) Mitigation strategies to limit negative impacts

Different Public Health Interventions have Varying Effects

Objective: To compare performance of one-time health interventions to those that change the probability of transitioning from one health state to another. Study Design and Setting: We used multi-state life table methods to estimate the impact of eight types of interventions on several outcomes. Results: In a cohort beginning at age 65, curing all the sick persons at baseline would increase life expectancy by 0.23 years and increase years of healthy life by .54 years. An equal amount of improvement could be obtained with a 12% decrease in the probability of getting sick, a 16% increase in the probability of a sick person recovering, a 15% decrease in the probability that a sick person dies, or a 14% decrease in the probability that a healthy person dies. Interventions aimed at keeping persons healthy increased longevity and years of healthy life, while decreasing morbidity and medical expenditures. Interventions focusing on lowering mortality had a greater effect on longevity, but increased morbidity and future medical expenditures. Results differed by the age at baseline and the relative value of a year of sick life. Conclusions: Some, but not all, interventions can improve survival while reducing morbidity and medical expenditures

The effect of different public health interventions on longevity, morbidity, and years of healthy life

BACKGROUND: Choosing cost-effective strategies for improving the health of the public is difficult because the relative effects of different types of interventions are not well understood. The benefits of one-shot interventions may be different from the benefits of interventions that permanently change the probability of getting sick, recovering, or dying. Here, we compare the benefits of such types of public health interventions. METHODS: We used multi-state life table methods to estimate the impact of five types of interventions on mortality, morbidity (years of life in fair or poor health), and years of healthy life (years in excellent, very good, or good health). RESULTS: A one-shot intervention that makes all the sick persons healthy at baseline would increase life expectancy by 3 months and increase years of healthy life by 6 months, in a cohort beginning at age 65. An equivalent amount of improvement can be obtained from an intervention that either decreases the probability of getting sick each year by 12%, increases the probability of a sick person recovering by 16%, decreases the probability that a sick person dies by 15%, or decreases the probability that a healthy person dies by 14%. Interventions aimed at keeping persons healthy increased longevity and years of healthy life, while decreasing morbidity and medical expenditures. Interventions focused on preventing mortality had a greater effect on longevity, but had higher future morbidity and medical expenditures. Results differed for older and younger cohorts and depended on the value to society of an additional year of sick life. CONCLUSION: Interventions that promote health and prevent disease performed well, but other types of intervention were sometimes better. The value to society of interventions that increase longevity but also increase morbidity needs further research. More comprehensive screening and treatment of new Medicare enrollees might improve their health and longevity without increasing future medical expenditures

Conditionally Calibrated Predictive Distributions by Probability-Probability Map: Application to Galaxy Redshift Estimation and Probabilistic Forecasting

Uncertainty quantification is crucial for assessing the predictive ability of AI algorithms. Much research has been devoted to describing the predictive distribution (PD) $F(y|\mathbf{x})$ of a target variable $y \in \mathbb{R}$ given complex input features $\mathbf{x} \in \mathcal{X}$. However, off-the-shelf PDs (from, e.g., normalizing flows and Bayesian neural networks) often lack conditional calibration with the probability of occurrence of an event given input $\mathbf{x}$ being significantly different from the predicted probability. Current calibration methods do not fully assess and enforce conditionally calibrated PDs. Here we propose \texttt{Cal-PIT}, a method that addresses both PD diagnostics and recalibration by learning a single probability-probability map from calibration data. The key idea is to regress probability integral transform scores against $\mathbf{x}$. The estimated regression provides interpretable diagnostics of conditional coverage across the feature space. The same regression function morphs the misspecified PD to a re-calibrated PD for all $\mathbf{x}$. We benchmark our corrected prediction bands (a by-product of corrected PDs) against oracle bands and state-of-the-art predictive inference algorithms for synthetic data. We also provide results for two applications: (i) probabilistic nowcasting given sequences of satellite images, and (ii) conditional density estimation of galaxy distances given imaging data (so-called photometric redshift estimation). Our code is available as a Python package https://github.com/lee-group-cmu/Cal-PIT .Comment: 21 pages, 11 figures. Under review. Code available as a Python package https://github.com/lee-group-cmu/Cal-PI

XThe psychosocial impact of living with an ocular prosthesis

Objective: Many patients are satisfied with their ocular prosthesis, but some describe problems with social interactions, body image and self-esteem. Although both clinical practice and research suggest that the severity of a disfiguring condition does not predict distress, there has been little research with patients living with an ocular prosthesis. The objective was to explore the psychological impact of living with an artificial eye or cosmetic shell and determine the relationship between psychological well-being and clinical and psychosocial factors. Methods: A cross-sectional study between March and September 2008 at the ocular prosthesis clinic of Moorfields Eye Hospital, UK. The primary outcome measures were mood as measured by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and appearance-related social anxiety and social avoidance, as measured by the Derriford Appearance Scale (DAS24). Results: Mean scores on the HADS and DAS24 were within normal range, but a considerable proportion of participants were experiencing significant levels of distress. Psychosocial adjustment was unrelated to most clinical and demographic variables, but was associated with a series of cognitive processes. Conclusions: Psychological variables, rather than clinical or demographic factors, are associated with how a patient adjusts to wearing an ocular prosthesis. Such factors might be amenable to change through psychosocial intervention

Associations of Air Pollution and Pediatric Asthma in Cleveland, Ohio

Air pollution has been associated with poor health outcomes and continues to be a risk factor for respiratory health in children. While higher particulate matter (PM) levels are associated with increased frequency of symptoms, lower lung function, and increase airway inflammation from asthma, the precise composition of the particles that are more highly associated with poor health outcomes or healthcare utilization are not fully elucidated. PM is measured quantifiably by current air pollution monitoring systems. To better determine sources of PM and speciation of such sources, a particulate matter (PM) source apportionment study, the Cleveland Multiple Air Pollutant Study (CMAPS), was conducted in Cleveland, Ohio, in 2009–2010, which allowed more refined assessment of associations with health outcomes. This article presents an evaluation of short-term (daily) and long-term associations between motor vehicle and industrial air pollution components and pediatric asthma emergency department (ED) visits by evaluating two sets of air quality data with healthcare utilization for pediatric asthma. Exposure estimates were developed using land use regression models for long-term exposures for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and coarse (i.e., with aerodynamic diameters between 2.5 and 10 μm) particulate matter (PM) and the US EPA Positive Matrix Factorization receptor model for short-term exposures to fine (μm) and coarse PM components. Exposure metrics from these two approaches were used in asthma ED visit prevalence and time series analyses to investigate seasonal-averaged short- and long-term impacts of both motor vehicles and industry emissions. Increased pediatric asthma ED visits were found for LUR coarse PM and NO2 estimates, which were primarily contributed by motor vehicles. Consistent, statistically significant associations with pediatric asthma visits were observed, with short-term exposures to components of fine and coarse iron PM associated with steel production. Our study is the first to combine spatial and time series analysis of ED visits for asthma using the same periods and shows that PM related to motor vehicle emissions and iron/steel production are associated with increased pediatric asthma visits

Equal Graph Partitioning on Estimated Infection Network as an Effective Epidemic Mitigation Measure

Controlling severe outbreaks remains the most important problem in infectious disease area. With time, this problem will only become more severe as population density in urban centers grows. Social interactions play a very important role in determining how infectious diseases spread, and organization of people along social lines gives rise to non-spatial networks in which the infections spread. Infection networks are different for diseases with different transmission modes, but are likely to be identical or highly similar for diseases that spread the same way. Hence, infection networks estimated from common infections can be useful to contain epidemics of a more severe disease with the same transmission mode. Here we present a proof-of-concept study demonstrating the effectiveness of epidemic mitigation based on such estimated infection networks. We first generate artificial social networks of different sizes and average degrees, but with roughly the same clustering characteristic. We then start SIR epidemics on these networks, censor the simulated incidences, and use them to reconstruct the infection network. We then efficiently fragment the estimated network by removing the smallest number of nodes identified by a graph partitioning algorithm. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this targeted strategy, by comparing it against traditional untargeted strategies, in slowing down and reducing the size of advancing epidemics

Youth violence: What we know and what we need to know.

School shootings tear the fabric of society. In the wake of a school shooting, parents, pediatricians, policymakers, politicians, and the public search for "the" cause of the shooting. But there is no single cause. The causes of school shootings are extremely complex. After the Sandy Hook Elementary School rampage shooting in Newtown, Connecticut, we wrote a report for the National Science Foundation on what is known and not known about youth violence. This article summarizes and updates that report. After distinguishing violent behavior from aggressive behavior, we describe the prevalence of gun violence in the United States and age-related risks for violence. We delineate important differences between violence in the context of rare rampage school shootings, and much more common urban street violence. Acts of violence are influenced by multiple factors, often acting together. We summarize evidence on some major risk factors and protective factors for youth violence, highlighting individual and contextual factors, which often interact. We consider new quantitative "data mining" procedures that can be used to predict youth violence perpetrated by groups and individuals, recognizing critical issues of privacy and ethical concerns that arise in the prediction of violence. We also discuss implications of the current evidence for reducing youth violence, and we offer suggestions for future research. We conclude by arguing that the prevention of youth violence should be a national priority. (PsycINFO Database Recor

Credibility in Policy Expertise: The Function of Boundaries Between Research and Policy

As science becomes an increasingly crucial resource for addressing complex challenges in society, extensive demands are placed upon the researchers who produce it. Creating valuable expert knowledge that intervenes in policy or practice requires knowledge brokers to facilitate interactions at the boundary between research and policy. Yet, existing research lacks a compelling account of the ways in which brokerage is performed to gain credibility. Drawing on mixed-method analysis of twelve policy research settings, I outline a novel set of strategies for attaining symbolic power, whereby policy experts position themselves and others via conceptual distances drawn between the ‘world of ideas’ and the ‘world of policy and practice’. Disciplinary distance works to situate research as either disciplinary or undisciplinary, epistemic distance creates a boundary between complex specialist research and direct digestible outputs, temporal distance represents the separation of slow rigorous research and agile responsive analysis, and economic distance situates research as either pure and intrinsic or marketable and fundable. I develop a theoretical account that unpacks the boundaries between research communities and shows how these boundaries permit policy research actors to achieve various strategic aims.ESRC Future Research Leaders ES/N016319/1 Commonwealth Scholarship Commissio

The ‘Biophilic Organization’: An Integrative Metaphor for Corporate Sustainability

This paper proposes a new organizational metaphor, the ‘Biophilic Organization’, which aims to counter the bio-cultural disconnection of many organizations despite their espoused commitment to sustainability. This conceptual research draws on multiple disciplines such as evolutionary psychology and architecture to not only develop a diverse bio-cultural connection but to show how this connection tackles sustainability, in a holistic and systemic sense. Moreover, the paper takes an integrative view of sustainability, which effectively means that it embraces the different emergent tensions. Three specific tensions are explored: efficiency versus resilience, organizational versus personal agendas and isomorphism versus institutional change. In order to illustrate how the Biophilic Organization could potentially provide a synthesis strategy for such tensions, healthcare examples are drawn from the emerging fields of Biophilic Design in Singapore and Generative Design in the U.S.A. Finally, an example is provided which highlights how a Taoist cultural context has impacted on a business leader in China, to illustrative the significance of a transcendent belief system to such a bio-cultural narrative