Nudging investors big and small toward better decisions

Investors significantly reduce their future returns by selecting mutual funds with higher fees, allured by higher past returns that do not predict future performance. This suboptimal behavior, which can roughly halve an investor’s retirement savings, is driven by 2 psychological factors. One factor is difficulty comprehending rate information, which is critical given that mutual fund fees and returns are typically communicated in percentages. A second factor is devaluing small differences in returns or fees (i.e., a peanuts effect). These 2 factors interact such that large investors benefit when fees are stated in currency (as opposed to percentages), whereas small investors benefit from returns stated in currency. These striking results suggest behavioral interventions that are tailored specifically for small and large investors

Visibility of age restriction warnings, harm reduction messages, and terms and conditions::A content analysis of paid-for gambling advertising in the United Kingdom.

Objective: The inclusion and design of age restriction warnings, harm reduction messages, and terms and conditions (T&Cs) in gambling advertising is self-regulated in the United Kingdom. Our study examines the visibility and nature of this information in a sample of paid-for gambling adverts. Study design: Content analysis of a stratified random sample of gambling adverts (n=300) in the United Kingdom from eight paid-for advertising channels (March 2018). Methods: For each advert, we assessed whether any age restriction warnings, harm reduction messages, and T&Cs were present. If so, visibility was scored on a five-point scale ranging from Very poor (25% of advert), which had high inter-rater reliability. Descriptive information on position, design, and tone of language was recorded. Results: One-in-seven adverts (14%) did not feature an age restriction warning or harm reduction message. In adverts that did, 84% of age restriction warnings and 54% of harm reduction messages had very poor visibility. At least one-in-ten adverts did not contain T&Cs. In adverts that did, 73% had very poor visibility. For age restriction warnings, harm reduction messages, and T&Cs, most appeared in small fonts and outside the main advert frame. Most harm reduction messages did not actually reference gambling-related harms. Conclusion: Age restriction warnings, harm reduction messages, and T&Cs do not always appear in paid-for gambling advertising. When they do, visibility is often very poor and the messaging not clear. The findings do not support a self-regulatory approach to managing this information in gambling adverts

Opening Pandora’s Loot Box: Weak Links Between Gambling and Loot Box Expenditure in China, and Player Opinions on Probability Disclosures and Pity-Timers

Loot boxes are quasi-gambling virtual products in video games that provide randomised rewards of varying value. Previous studies in Western contexts have identified a positive correlation between loot box purchasing and problem gambling severity. A preregistered survey of People’s Republic of China (PRC) video game players (N = 879) failed to replicate this correlation. We observed statistically significant but weak positive correlations between loot box expenditure and past-year gambling participation, and between loot box expenditure and impulsiveness. This study cannot prove that loot boxes are not disproportionately purchased by people with problem gambling symptomatology in the PRC or that PRC players are not potentially at risk of loot box-related harms. Instead, the evidence suggests that the relationship between loot boxes and gambling might be weaker in the PRC than in Western countries. We identified multiple unique factors about the PRC that might be affecting this relationship. For example, the lotteries are the only legally permitted form of gambling. More gamified electronic gambling products are unavailable. The limited availability of gambling meant that a low level of gambling participation (n = 87) was observed, which is a limitation of this study. Additionally, the PRC is presently the only country to legally require loot box probability disclosures as a consumer protection measure. Most loot box purchasers (84.6%) reported seeing loot box probability disclosures, but only 19.3% of this group reported consequently spending less money. Most loot box purchasers (86.9%) thought that pity-timers, which increase the winning probabilities of obtaining rarer rewards, are appropriate for implementation. Future loot box research should give greater consideration to differing cultural contexts and novel consumer protection measures

Revisiting Salvucci’s Semi-analytical Solution for Bare Soil Evaporation with New Consideration of Vapour Diffusion and Film Flow

Bare soil evaporation is controlled by a combination of capillary flow, vapour diffusion and film flow. Relevant analytical solutions mostly assume horizontal flow conditions and ignore gravitational effects. Salvucci (1997) provided a rare example of a semi-analytical solution for vertical bare soil evaporation. However, they did not explicitly represent vapour diffusion and film flow, which are likely to account for a significant proportion of total flow during vertical evaporation from soils. Vapour diffusion and film flow can be incorporated via Salvucci’s desorptivity parameter, which represents the proportionality constant relating Stage 2 cumulative evaporation to the square root of time under horizontal flow conditions. The objective of this article is to implement vapour diffusion and film flow within Salvucci’s semi-analytical solution and test its performance by comparison with isothermal numerical simulation and relevant experimental data. The following important conclusions are drawn. Analytical solutions that assume horizontal flow conditions are inadequate for understanding vertical evaporation problems because they overestimate evaporation rates and mostly predict vapour diffusion and film flow to be of negligible influence. Salvucci’s semi-analytical solution is effective at predicting the order-of-magnitude reduction in evaporation caused by gravitational effects. However, it is unable to identify the correct importance of vapour diffusion and film flow because these processes can only be represented through its desorptivity parameter

Loot boxes, gambling-related risk factors, and mental health in Mainland China: A large-scale survey

Loot boxes can be bought with real-world money to obtain random content inside video games (Drummond and Sauer 2018). Loot boxes are viewed by many as gambling-like and are prevalently implemented globally (Xiao 2023; Xiao, Henderson, and Newall 2023; 2022; Zendle et al. 2020; 2022), including in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Previous Western and international studies have consistently found loot box spending to be positively correlated with problem gambling (Zendle and Cairns 2018; Spicer et al. 2021; Garea et al. 2021). Previous Western studies presented mixed results as to the correlations between loot box purchasing and gambling-related risk factors, mental wellbeing, and psychological distress (Etchells, Morgan, and Quintana 2022; cf. Drummond, Hall, and Sauer 2022). A large-scale survey of adult video game players from Mainland China (N = 2,601) was conducted through Tencent Survey to assess the relationships between loot box spending and potential gambling-related risk factors and mental health. The positive correlations between loot box spending and problem gambling, and between loot box spending and problem videogaming, were successfully replicated. However, other potential risk factors (i.e., impulsivity/impulsiveness; binary past-year gambling participation status; and sensation-seeking tendencies) either did not positively correlate with loot box spending or only did so weakly. Contrary to expectations (see Garrett et al. 2023), high impulsivity was negatively associated with loot box engagement. The Risky Loot Box Index (RLI) (see Brooks and Clark 2019) most strongly positively correlated with, and was the best predictor in multiple linear regression models for, loot box spending. The RLI may be effective at measuring loot box harms cross-culturally (see Forsström et al. 2022). A surprising weak positive correlation was found between loot box engagement and PRC players’ mental wellbeing, and high psychological distress unexpectedly negatively predicted loot box purchasing. No evidence was found that loot box engagement correlated negatively with mental wellbeing or positively with psychological distress amongst PRC video game players. In fact, there was weak support for the opposite. The practical harms of engaging with loot boxes (if any) need further elucidation. Cross-cultural research can contribute to a better understanding of loot box harms

Water residence time : A regulatory factor of the DOM to POM transfer efficiency

The pools of dissolved (DOM) and particulate organic matter (POM) and of transparent exopolymeric particles (TEP) were studied along two sampling gradients in the lagoon of New Caledonia in relation to the residence time of the water masses. The efficiency of the transfer of material from the dissolved to the particulate phase via TEP formation, indicating the physicochemical reactivity of organic matter, was investigated. DOM, POM, and TEP concentration increased along the sampling gradients, but their relative proportions varied. The contribution of the TEP pool to POM increased from 20% to 60%, from the most oligotrophic stations to the more anthropogenically affected bays. According to the low density of TEP and to the observed variations of the proportion of TEP compared with more conventional and solid particles, the aggregates formed inside the bays would be either neutrally or positively buoyant, whereas in the vicinity of the coral barrier, they would be negatively buoyant. As a result, the downward export of organic matter inside the bays might be greatly reduced, thereby prolonging the residence time of organic matter in the water column. The efficiency of the DOM/TEP transformation and the TEP turnover rate dropped drastically when the residence time increased from 0 to 50 d, suggesting that the reactivity of organic matter is reduced as it ages. The very high residence time of the water mass inside the bays, constrained by the hydrodynamic circulation inside the lagoon, favors the installation of a feedback system in which organic matter is not exported and is continuously degraded, leading to the formation of refractory DOM with a low physicochemical reactivity. In contrast, organic matter produced in areas in which water mass has a low residence time (i.e., near the coral barrier) is rapidly exported because of its high physicochernical reactivity

Production of individual marine organic aggregates using paramagnetic microspheres : a new tool for examining microbial associations with aggregates

We describe a new method to produce marine aggregates from natural organic material based on the sticking properties of transparent exopolymeric particles. Seawater samples were prescreened and ultrafiltered to concentrate the 30 kDa to 10 mu m size fraction. First, we produced small magnetizable aggregates by combining glass microfibers and paramagnetic 1-mu m beads with the organic matter present in the concentrated solution. The second step involved clustering the small aggregates into a single macro-aggregate, using a small ring-shaped magnet as an aggregation nucleus. Viral and bacterial densities, determined after dissolution of the newly formed aggregates with methanol, averaged 13.8 x 10(6) +/- 3.6 x 10(6) vir. agg.(-1) and 4.1 x 10(6) +/- 1.1 x10(6) bact. agg.(-1). Bacterial respiration and production measurements of single aggregates averaged 8.47 +/- 1.72 nmol O-2 agg.(-1) h(-1) and 1.54 +/- 0.45 ng C agg.(-1) h(-1), respectively. Particulate organic carbon and nitrogen content of the newly formed macro-aggregates averaged 31.92 +/- 2.67 mu g C agg.(-1) and 3.44 +/- 0.43 mu g N agg.(-1), respectively. This approach allows the concentration and isolation of the organic matter precursors that compose natural aggregates and provides a simple protocol for recombining those precursors into single newly formed macro-aggregates, which can then be easily manipulated for further investigation. This method is a new tool for investigations into the interactions between microorganisms and marine aggregates and their implications at the ecosystem level, but also into the interactions between aggregates and dissolved organic or inorganic substances

Using economic evidence to set healthcare priorities in low-income and lower-middle-income countries: a systematic review of methodological frameworks

Policy makers in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) are increasingly looking to develop 'evidence-based' frameworks for identifying priority health interventions. This paper synthesises and appraises the literature on methodological frameworks - which incorporate economic evaluation evidence - for the purpose of setting healthcare priorities in LMICs. A systematic search of Embase, MEDLINE, Econlit and PubMed identified 3968 articles with a further 21 articles identified through manual searching. A total of 36 papers were eligible for inclusion. These covered a wide range of health interventions with only two studies including health systems strengthening interventions related to financing, governance and human resources. A little under half of the studies (39%) included multiple criteria for priority setting, most commonly equity, feasibility and disease severity. Most studies (91%) specified a measure of 'efficiency' defined as cost per disability-adjusted life year averted. Ranking of health interventions using multi-criteria decision analysis and generalised cost-effectiveness were the most common frameworks for identifying priority health interventions. Approximately a third of studies discussed the affordability of priority interventions. Only one study identified priority areas for the release or redeployment of resources. The paper concludes by highlighting the need for local capacity to conduct evaluations (including economic analysis) and empowerment of local decision-makers to act on this evidence