COST-EFFECTIVE ANALYSIS OF TRAFFIC EMISSION CONTROL: TARGETING STRATEGIES UNDER UNCERTAINTY

ABSTRACT Emissions from traffic impose negative effects on human health, and recent evidence indicates that particulate matters (PM) are the detrimental air pollutant that causes most life years lost. To improve the efficiency of resource allocation, various mitigation measures have been proposed for reducing these emissions. However, whether or not the policy instruments are welfare improving, and if yes, how much more efficient they can be remain to be studied. To answer the questions, we need to both assess the economic cost of emission control and the health benefit due to the reduced PM emission by all proposed control instruments. This paper focuses on the cost efficiency for reaching pre-determined emission targets. We are concerned with reducing the concentrations of PM in Stockholm by local policy measures. Contrary to other cost-efficiency studies we have in this study included adaptations in behaviour in addition to the conventional technical measures alone. Since there are different emissions of PM, targeting PM10 may not be a good indicator of the health benefits. We therefore compare the performance of targeting PM and of targeting years of life lost (YOLL) and found interesting differences. We find that if the ultimate objective is to save lives or say life-years, it should be more appropriate to target YOLL, provided that YOLL can be properly predicted. Moreover, since the collected data on the effectiveness and cost of the policy instruments involve large uncertainty, we have employed a stochastic control model to explore the implications of the degree of uncertainty. We find that the higher fulfilment probability, the larger the marginal cost as expected. Also, for a given fulfilment probability, the more uncertain we are about the true effectiveness parameters, the larger the marginal costs

Prednisolone-induced diabetes mellitus in the cat: a historical cohort

Objectives Prednisolone is a commonly used drug in cats and potential adverse effects include hyperglycaemia and diabetes mellitus. The aims of this study were to evaluate the frequency and investigate potential predisposing risk factors for the development of prednisolone-induced diabetes mellitus (PIDM) in cats. Methods The electronic records of a tertiary referral centre were searched for cats receiving prednisolone at a starting dose of ⩾1.9 mg/kg/day, for >3 weeks and with follow-up data available for >3 months between January 2007 and July 2019. One hundred and forty-three cats were included in the study. Results Of the 143 cats, 14 cats (9.7%) were diagnosed with PIDM. Twelve out of 14 cats (85.7%) developed diabetes within 3 months of the initiation of therapy. Conclusions and relevance Cats requiring high-dose prednisolone therapy should be closely monitored over the first 3 months of therapy for the development of PIDM

Современная лекция: какая она?

Many countries have begun to require benefit-cost analysis as a way of informing key regulatory decisions. However, its actual use seem to be limited, especially in the area of environmental, health, and safety regulation. Reasons for this seem to be lack of knowledge and experience among decision makers and that established quality objectives prevent the use of this type of analysis and deliberation. We present the results from an experiment designed to investigate choice behavior in a public sector context. Students with different academic majors were asked to act as decision makers. There were two choice situations: one in a municipality deciding on an action plan and one in a government agency having to propose a national limit value. In both settings, the outcome that would pass a benefit-cost test would not achieve a natural state of the environment, hence a social dilemma choice situation. We find that a majority of the respondents prefer outcomes that can be considered environmental “optimum” but that there is a difference depending on academic major. The choice context also influences the response behavior and so does the information about an international standard. The latter increases the likelihood to accept alternatives that imply higher costs

Merkelojalitet eller tid? – En studie av faktorer som påvirker studenters kjøpsavgjørelser

I dette studiet har vi tatt utgangspunkt i merkelojalitet og dets effekt på betalingsvillighet og preferanse for produkt ved forskjellige tidsperspektiv. Teorien som ligger til bakgrunn for undersøkelsen baserer seg på et eksperiment utført av Kelly Kiyeon Lee og Min Zhao (2014), og de forsket på hvilken effekt pris og brukervennlighet har på preferanse for produkt. Vi fjernet variabelen brukervennlighet og har lagt ved merkelojalitet som en uavhengig variabel, samt betalingsvillighet som en avhengig variabel. Videre førte dette oss til vårt forskningsspørsmål; Vil merkelojalitet og tid påvirke betalingsvillighet og produktpreferanse? Undersøkelsesmetoden er kvantitativ, og ble utført gjennom et eksperiment ved Markedshøyskolen. For å måle merkelojaliteten brukte vi de nyeste smarttelefonene til Apple og Samsung som begge er sterke merkevarer. Resultatene fra undersøkelsen viste tydelig at tidsperspektiv ikke hadde noen påvirkning på betalingsvillighet eller preferanse for produkt. Merkelojalitet alene hadde en sterk påvirkning på både betalingsvillighet og preferanse for produkt. Dette førte til fraværende interaksjon mellom tidsperspektivet og merkelojalitet, mot betalingsvillighet og preferanse for produkt

Clinical findings, treatment, and outcome of trapped neutrophil syndrome in Border Collies: 12 cases (2011-2022)

Objectives: This study aimed to evaluate clinical signs, diagnostic findings, treatment administered and short- (survival to 28 days) and long-term prognosis (survival &gt;6 months) in dogs diagnosed with trapped neutrophil syndrome. Materials and Methods: Medical records of 12 dogs (10 Border Collies and two Border Collie Crossbreeds) homozygous for VPS13B gene mutation causing trapped neutrophil syndrome from seven veterinary institutions between January 2011 and June 2022 were evaluated retrospectively. Results: The most common clinical signs at the time of diagnosis were pyrexia, abnormal gait and gastrointestinal signs. Concurrent metaphyseal osteopathy and immune-mediated polyarthritis were common. Seven dogs had a segmented neutrophil count below, four dogs within and one dog above the analyser reference interval at presentation. Two dogs had a septic source identified and both were additionally identified to be homozygous mutant positive on DNA testing by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for canine cyclic neutropenia. All dogs received at least one antimicrobial agent and 10 dogs received treatment with prednisone or prednisolone (median starting dose 1 mg/kg/day; range 0.5 to 2.5 mg/kg/day). Nine dogs were alive at 28 days and six dogs were alive at 6 months post-diagnosis. Clinical Significance: Trapped neutrophil syndrome should be suspected in young Border Collies with pyrexia, lameness and gastrointestinal signs. Neutropenia may not always be present and long-term survival is possible. A septic focus was not commonly identified in our population; however, our results suggest that if identified, testing for concurrent canine cyclic neutropenia should be considered.</p

Quantified economic analysis in the work with national risk and capability assessment : methodology and guidance

År 2012 inledde Myndigheten för Samhällsskydd och Beredskap (MSB) ett arbete med att med att utveckla en metodik för nationell riskbedömning. MSB:s arbete har inledningsvis haft ett fokus på riskbedömning. Detta arbete är nu på väg att samordnas med det arbete som redan pågår inom myndigheter med att genomföra av risk- och sårbarhetsanalyser. Därmed har frågan om förmågebedömning och hur brister i systemet kan identifieras fått ett större fokus. VTI har därför fått i uppdrag att undersöka hur samhällsekonomisk analys kan användas som underlag i arbetet. I rapporten beskrivs inledningsvis det arbete som redan pågår på lokal, regional och nationell nivå med att identifiera risker och sårbarheter och vilken information som tas fram i detta arbete. Därefter diskuteras, utifrån exempel i den vetenskapliga litteraturen, hur samhällsekonomisk analysmetodik på olika sätt använts för analyser av risker och krisberedskap. Slutligen beskrivs också, baserat på en vägledning framtagen av Naturvårdsverket, vilka principer som en samhällsekonomisk konsekvensanalys baseras på och vad en sådan ska innehålla. Utifrån dessa bakgrundsbeskrivningar presenteras ett förslag på hur samhällsekonomisk analys kan användas för att strukturera ett problem utifrån de underlag som idag används, med fokus på scenarioanalys. De delar som ingår i detta förslag är: - Scenarioanalys som används för att ta fram en principiell modell som beskriver systemberoenden och vilka förmågor som kan påverka sannolikheten eller konsekvenserna av en händelse. - Förmågebedömning som syftar till att närmare kvantifiera nivån på relevanta förmågor. - GAP-analys som syftar till att identifiera brister i nuvarande system och klarlägga vilka åtgärder som är aktuella att analysera. - Samhällsekonomisk konsekvensanalys av åtgärder enligt etablerad metodik. - Stresstest och utvärdering där den modell som tagits fram i scenarioanalysen kan användas.In 2012 the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) was commissioned by the government to develop and establish a procedure and methodology for national risk assessment in Sweden. In 2013 MSB continued this work and also initiated work to develop a more coherent and reliable process for producing national risk and capability assessments. An assignment was therefore given to VTI where the questions was how economics can be implemented in practice in this more comprehensive work. To provide a basis for discussion, the current system for national risk- and capability assessments undertaken by the public sector is described in the beginning of the report. Next, based on findings in the scientific literature, the report contains a discussion of how economics can be of use in risk assessment and management. Since cost-benefit analysis is the analytical tool used, this overview also contains a short summary on how to perform this type of analysis. Based on this background information a method is proposed on how to analyze a decision problem in this kind of risk context. The method comprises the following logical steps: - Scenario analysis to develop an analytical model of the risk context focusing on a description of the capabilities needed to reduce the probability of and the consequences of a certain hazard. - Capability assessment to quantify the current level of the relevant capabilities. - GAP-analysis to identify if there is a lack of important capabilities and if so, what measures that can address these insufficiencies. - Cost-benefit analysis to evaluate different policy measures to improve the capability. - Stress test and evaluation to test the functioning of the risk management system and the effect of the policy changes made. The analytical model developed in the first step can be used for this purpose

Potential impacts and net benefits of yearly air emission reductions for different abatement options and average ship types in the Baltic Sea Region

Carrots and Sticks at VT

Potential impacts and net benefits of yearly air emission reductions for different abatement options and average ship types in the Baltic Sea Region

Carrots and Sticks at VT

Dieselization in Sweden : blessing or curse?

In this paper we discuss, based on research on the external cost of air pollution, if diesel as a fuel in the transport sector should be encouraged or discouraged in Swedish environmental policy. There are two main reasons for posing this question. The first is the international context where the use of diesel is generally considered to be a bad, due to its negative health effects. The second is the Swedish context with an ambitious vision for a fossil free vehicle fleet in 2030 where the use of diesel produced from forestry residues could be part of the solution. In recent years the use of diesel cars has been encouraged by various policy measures, for example a subsidy based on assessments of emissions for CO2 per kilometer. Is this a policy that should be continued or abandoned? In this paper we focus on the health impacts and our conclusion is that dieselization is more a blessing than a curse. The reason is that Sweden is a sparsely populated country and therefore the health costs of emissions from road transport are low by international standards