Prevalence of chronic HCV infection in EU/EEA countries in 2019 using multiparameter evidence synthesis

Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Author(s)Background: Epidemiological data are crucial to monitoring progress towards the 2030 Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination targets. Our aim was to estimate the prevalence of chronic HCV infection (cHCV) in the European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA) countries in 2019. Methods: Multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) was used to produce national estimates of cHCV defined as: π = πrecρrec + πexρex + πnonρnon; πrec, πex, and πnon represent cHCV prevalence among recent people who inject drugs (PWID), ex-PWID, and non-PWID, respectively, while ρrec, ρex, and ρnon represent the proportions of these groups in the population. Information sources included the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) national operational contact points (NCPs) and prevalence database, the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction databases, and the published literature. Findings: The cHCV prevalence in 29 of 30 EU/EEA countries in 2019 was 0.50% [95% Credible Interval (CrI): 0.46%, 0.55%]. The highest cHCV prevalence was observed in the eastern EU/EEA (0.88%; 95% CrI: 0.81%, 0.94%). At least 35.76% (95% CrI: 33.07%, 38.60%) of the overall cHCV prevalence in EU/EEA countries was associated with injecting drugs. Interpretation: Using MPES and collaborating with ECDC NCPs, we estimated the prevalence of cHCV in the EU/EEA to be low. Some areas experience higher cHCV prevalence while a third of prevalent cHCV infections was attributed to PWID. Further efforts are needed to scale up prevention measures and the diagnosis and treatment of infected individuals, especially in the east of the EU/EEA and among PWID. Funding: ECDC.Peer reviewe

Prevalence of chronic HCV infection in EU/EEA countries in 2019 using multiparameter evidence synthesis

Abstract: Background Epidemiological data are crucial to monitoring progress towards the 2030 Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) elimination targets. Our aim was to estimate the prevalence of chronic HCV infection (cHCV) in the European Union (EU)/European Economic Area (EEA) countries in 2019. Methods Multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) was used to produce national estimates of cHCV defined as: \u3c0 = \u3c0rec\u3c1rec + \u3c0ex\u3c1ex + \u3c0non\u3c1non; \u3c0rec, \u3c0ex, and \u3c0non represent cHCV prevalence among recent people who inject drugs (PWID), ex-PWID, and non-PWID, respectively, while \u3c1rec, \u3c1ex, and \u3c1non represent the proportions of these groups in the population. Information sources included the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) national operational contact points (NCPs) and prevalence database, the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction databases, and the published literature. Findings The cHCV prevalence in 29 of 30 EU/EEA countries in 2019 was 0.50% [95% Credible Interval (CrI): 0.46%, 0.55%]. The highest cHCV prevalence was observed in the eastern EU/EEA (0.88%; 95% CrI: 0.81%, 0.94%). At least 35.76% (95% CrI: 33.07%, 38.60%) of the overall cHCV prevalence in EU/EEA countries was associated with injecting drugs. Interpretation Using MPES and collaborating with ECDC NCPs, we estimated the prevalence of cHCV in the EU/EEA to be low. Some areas experience higher cHCV prevalence while a third of prevalent cHCV infections was attributed to PWID. Further efforts are needed to scale up prevention measures and the diagnosis and treatment of infected individuals, especially in the east of the EU/EEA and among PWID

Hepatitis C virus prevalence and level of intervention required to achieve the WHO targets for elimination in the European Union by 2030 : a modelling study

Background Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver-related morbidity and mortality worldwide. In the European Union (EU), treatment and cure of HCV with direct-acting antiviral therapies began in 2014. WHO targets are to achieve a 65% reduction in liver-related deaths, a 90% reduction of new viral hepatitis infections, and 90% of patients with viral hepatitis infections being diagnosed by 2030. This study assessed the prevalence of HCV in the EU and the level of intervention required to achieve WHO targets for HCV elimination. Methods We populated country Markov models for the 28 EU countries through a literature search of PubMed and Embase between Jan 1, 2000, and March 31, 2016, and a Delphi process to gain expert consensus and validate inputs. We aggregated country models to create a regional EU model. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) and developed a strategy to acehive WHO targets. We used weighted average sustained viral response rates and fibrosis restrictions to model the effect of current therapeutic guidelines. We used the EU model to forecast HCV disease progression (considering the effect of immigration) under current screening and therapeutic guidelines. Additionally, we back-calculated the total number of patients needing to be screened and treated to achieve WHO targets. Findings We estimated the number of viraemic HCV infections in 2015 to be 3\ue2\u80\u88238\ue2\u80\u88000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2\ue2\u80\u88106\ue2\u80\u88000\ue2\u80\u933\ue2\u80\u88795\ue2\u80\u88000) of a total population of 509\ue2\u80\u88868\ue2\u80\u88000 in the EU, equating to a prevalence of viraemic HCV of 0\uc2\ub764% (95% UI 0\uc2\ub741\ue2\u80\u930\uc2\ub774). We estimated that 1\ue2\u80\u88180\ue2\u80\u88000 (95% UI 1\ue2\u80\u88003\ue2\u80\u88000\ue2\u80\u931\ue2\u80\u88357\ue2\u80\u88000) people were diagnosed with viraemia (36\uc2\ub74%), 150\ue2\u80\u88000 (12\ue2\u80\u88000\ue2\u80\u93180\ue2\u80\u88000) were treated (4\uc2\ub76% of the total infected population or 12\uc2\ub77% of the diagnosed population), 133\ue2\u80\u88000 (106\ue2\u80\u88000\ue2\u80\u93160\ue2\u80\u88000) were cured (4\uc2\ub71%), and 57\ue2\u80\u88900 (43\ue2\u80\u88900\ue2\u80\u9367\ue2\u80\u88300) were newly infected (1\uc2\ub78%) in 2015. Additionally, 30\ue2\u80\u88400 (26\ue2\u80\u88600\ue2\u80\u9342\ue2\u80\u88500) HCV-positive immigrants entered the EU. To achieve WHO targets, unrestricted treatment needs to increase from 150\ue2\u80\u88000 patients in 2015 to 187\ue2\u80\u88000 patients in 2025 and diagnosis needs to increase from 88\ue2\u80\u88800 new cases annually in 2015 to 180\ue2\u80\u88000 in 2025. Interpretation Given its advanced health-care infrastructure, the EU is uniquely poised to eliminate HCV; however, expansion of screening programmes is essential to increase treatment to achieve the WHO targets. A united effort, grounded in sound epidemiological evidence, will also be necessary. Funding Gilead Sciences