Trade related business climate and manufacturing export performance in Africa: A firm-level analysis

Africa continues to be marginalised in world trade of manufactured goods, despite reductions in tariffs and non-tariff barriers. This paper investigates whether high business and trade costs associated with Africa’s trade-related infrastructure, trade institutions and the regulatory environment have contributed towards its mediocre trade performance. The paper focuses on eight African countries - Egypt, Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Morocco, South Africa, Tanzania and Zambia - using the World Bank’s investment climate surveys. The results of the study suggest that the business climate, as measured using principal components for micro-level supply constraints, macroeconomic conditions and the legal environment, is closely associated with firm-level export propensity. Improvements in domestic policy may therefore have a considerable positive impact on manufacturing export performance in Africa

ABC for Climate: Dealing with Expensive Simulators

A single molecule or molecule complex detection method is disclosed in certain aspects, comprising nano- or micro-fluidic channels.U

South African exporting firms: What do we know and what should we know?

Policies to stimulate export growth and diversify the composition of exports in South Africa are now high on the government’s agenda. In order to understand exporting and its impact on job creation, one needs to understand how firms function, what determines, or constrains, exporting at the firm level and the links between export behaviour and labour demand. An understanding of these relationships, particularly over time, is also essential for the implementation and evaluation of export related policies. This paper reviews the evidence on South African exporting firms, highlighting what we know, and what we do not know. A key conclusion is that our understanding of firm level export behaviour is severely constrained by the lack of adequate firm data, particularly panel data.South Africa; exports; firms

Sensitivity of the Eocene climate to CO₂ and orbital variability

The early Eocene, from about 56 Ma, with high atmospheric CO2 levels, offers an analogue for the response of the Earth’s climate system to anthropogenic fossil fuel burning. In this study, we present an ensemble of 50 Earth system model runs with an early Eocene palaeogeography and variation in the forcing values of atmospheric CO2 and the Earth’s orbital parameters. Relationships between simple summary metrics of model outputs and the forcing parameters are identified by linear modelling, providing estimates of the relative magnitudes of the effects of atmospheric CO2 and each of the orbital parameters on important climatic features, including tropical–polar temperature difference, ocean–land temperature contrast, Asian, African and South (S.) American monsoon rains, and climate sensitivity. Our results indicate that although CO2 exerts a dominant control on most of the climatic features examined in this study, the orbital parameters also strongly influence important components of the ocean–atmosphere system in a greenhouse Earth. In our ensemble, atmospheric CO2 spans the range 280–3000 ppm, and this variation accounts for over 90 % of the effects on mean air temperature, southern winter high-latitude ocean– land temperature contrast and northern winter tropical–polar temperature difference. However, the variation of precession accounts for over 80 % of the influence of the forcing parameters on the Asian and African monsoon rainfall, and obliquity variation accounts for over 65 % of the effects on winter ocean–land temperature contrast in high northern latitudes and northern summer tropical–polar temperature difference. Our results indicate a bimodal climate sensitivity, with values of 4.36 and 2.54 ◦C, dependent on low or high states of atmospheric CO2 concentration, respectively, with a threshold at approximately 1000 ppm in this model, and due to a saturated vegetation–albedo feedback. Our method gives a quantitative ranking of the influence of each of the forcing parameters on key climatic model outputs, with additional spatial information from singular value decomposition providing insights into likely physical mechanisms. The results demonstrate the importance of orbital variation as an agent of change in climates of the past, and we demonstrate that emulators derived from our modelling output can be used as rapid and efficient surrogates of the full complexity model to provide estimates of climate conditions from any set of forcing parameters

“Feeling my Sister’s Pain”: Perceived Victim Suffering Moderates the Impact of Sexualized Music Videos on Fijian Women’s Responses to Men’s Intimate Partner Violence against Women

To better understand how sexualized music videos affect women’s responses to intimate partner violence (IPV), we examined the role of individual variability in perceived victim pain and perceived victim culpability in moderating and mediating (respectively) the priming effects of sexual music videos on women. Female Fijian college students (n = 243) were randomly assigned to one of three viewing conditions: stereotyped sexual music videos, non-stereotyped/non-sexual music videos, or neutral videos. All participants then read a portrayal of a male-toward-female IPV episode and their perceptions of the female victim and male perpetrator were assessed. Only women who minimized the victim’s pain were adversely affected by exposure to the stereotyped sexual videos. Specifically, for women who perceived low victim pain, those in the stereotyped video condition perceived the victim as more culpable and reported greater perpetrator-directed favorable responding than those in the other two conditions. For these women who perceived low victim pain, perceptions of victim culpability mediated the impact of video type on perpetrator-favorable responding. The findings help us better understand susceptibility to the negative impact of stereotypical sexual videos and highlight areas, such as emphasizing the suffering of victims and reducing myths about victim culpability, which may be worthy of particular emphasis in interventions

Unsteady similarity solutions and oscillating ocean gyres

The effect of time-dependent forcing on steady solutions representing basin-scale flows is investigated. Analytical and numerical solutions are considered separately and compared. We first use symmetry methods to show how any steady solution of the ideal thermocline equations can be used to generate a family of unsteady solutions, via an arbitrary function of time α(t). The resulting time-dependent solutions correspond to distortion of the isopycnal surfaces by a velocity field which varies linearly in the three coordinate directions. Although the displacements are linear, the fluctuations can lead to a form of nonlinear streaming wherever the function α appears nonlinearly in expressions for mass and heat fluxes. For an example steady solution, changes in internal energy caused by the time-dependence are associated with changes in thermocline depth and fluxes of energy from the western boundary, although it is unclear to what extent this behavior is specific to the example chosen. We also describe another symmetry of the time-dependent thermocline equations which generates wave-like solutions from arbitrary steady solutions. All the time-dependent solutions are special cases of a symmetry which applies to a general advection equation. Potential vorticity advection provides another special case. With the inclusion of convective and dissipative processes, a more realistic steady solution is found numerically in a flat-bottomed sector. If the surface forcing functions oscillate annually, the resulting flow resembles the analytical predictions. As the oscillation period increases, spatial variations in phase disrupt the agreement as first boundary and then diffusive effects become important. For decadal period oscillations, nonlinear streaming is found to significantly increase the meridional overturning

Uncertainties due to transport-parameter sensitivity in an efficient 3-D ocean-climate model

A simplified climate model is presented which includes a fully 3-D, frictional geostrophic (FG) ocean component but retains an integration efficiency considerably greater than extant climate models with 3-D, primitive-equation ocean representations (20kyears of integration can be completed in about a day on a PC). The model also includes an Energy and Moisture Balance atmosphere and a dynamic and thermodynamic sea-ice model. Using a semi-random ensemble of 1,000 simulations, we address both the inverse problem of parameter estimation, and the direct problem of quantifying the uncertainty due to mixing and transport parameters. Our results represent a first attempt at tuning a 3-D climate model by a strictly defined procedure, which nevertheless considers the whole of the appropriate parameter space. Model estimates of meridional overturning and Atlantic heat transport are well reproduced, while errors are reduced only moderately by a doubling of resolution. Model parameters are only weakly constrained by data, while strong correlations between mean error and parameter values are mostly found to be an artefact of single-parameter studies, not indicative of global model behaviour. Single-parameter sensitivity studies can therefore be misleading. Given a single, illustrative scenario of CO2 increase and fixing the polynomial coefficients governing the extremely simple radiation parameterisation, the spread of model predictions for global mean warming due solely to the transport parameters is around one degree after 100years forcing, although in a typical 4,000-year ensemble-member simulation, the peak rate of warming in the deep Pacific occurs 400years after the onset of the forcing. The corresponding uncertainty in Atlantic overturning after 100years is around 5Sv, with a small, but non-negligible, probability of a collapse in the long ter

Effect of Farm-Level Constraints, Existing and Prospective Policies on Expansion of Coconut-Based Intercropping in Sri Lanka

Coconut-based intercropping (CBI) in Sri Lanka was introduced some 20 years ago to overcome the two main limitations of traditional coconut monocropping, inefficient land use and low incomes to farmers, but it has not been widely adopted. This study analyses the effect of farm-level resource constraints, and government policies on the intensity of adoption of CBI. A multiperiod linear programming (MLP) model was applied for three farmer groups - resource poor, medium endowed, well endowed - categorised using cluster analysis. Data was collected from a survey of randomly selected 113 intercroppers. Empirical results reveal that expansion of CBI is mainly constrained by seasonal labour shortages for all farmer groups, particularly the well endowed, and by the scarcity of cash in the case of resource-poor farmers. CBI policies aimed at subsidising inputs or intercrop prices are not likely to be efficient in raising adoption, but alternative policies aimed at alleviating resource constraints would be more effective. The study concluded that the low adoption of CBI is mainly attributable to the scarcity of different farm-level resources (other than land), at varying degrees among different farmer groups. Hence a targeted approach to alleviate them is suggested.Crop Production/Industries,