On the use of Bayesian decision theory for issuing natural hazard warnings

This is the final version of the article. Available from the Royal Society via the DOI in this record.Warnings for natural hazards improve societal resilience and are a good example of decision-making under uncertainty. A warning system is only useful if well defined and thus understood by stakeholders. However, most operational warning systems are heuristic: not formally or transparently defined. Bayesian decision theory provides a framework for issuing warnings under uncertainty but has not been fully exploited. Here, a decision theoretic framework is proposed for hazard warnings. The framework allows any number of warning levels and future states of nature, and a mathematical model for constructing the necessary loss functions for both generic and specific end-users is described. The approach is illustrated using one-day ahead warnings of daily severe precipitation over the UK, and compared to the current decision tool used by the UK Met Office. A probability model is proposed to predict precipitation, given ensemble forecast information, and loss functions are constructed for two generic stakeholders: an end-user and a forecaster. Results show that the Met Office tool issues fewer high-level warnings compared with our system for the generic end-user, suggesting the former may not be suitable for risk averse end-users. In addition, raw ensemble forecasts are shown to be unreliable and result in higher losses from warnings.This work was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (Consortium on Risk in the Environment: Diagnostics, Integration, Benchmarking, Learning and Elicitation (CREDIBLE); grant no. NE/J017043/1)

Disparities In Cancer Care And Costs At The End Of Life: Evidence From England's National Health Service

In universal health care systems such as the English National Health Service, equality of access is a core principle, and health care is free at the point of delivery. However, even within a universal system, disparities in care and costs exist along a socioeconomic gradient. Little is known about socioeconomic disparities at the end of life and how they affect health care costs. This study examines disparities in end-of-life treatment costs for cancer patients in England. Analyzing data on over 250,000 colorectal, breast, prostate, and lung cancer patients from multiple national databases, we found evidence illustrating that disparities are driven largely by the greater use of emergency inpatient care among patients of lower socioeconomic status. Even within a system with free health care, differences in the use of care create disparities in cancer costs. While further studies of these barriers is required, our research suggests that disparities may be reduced through better management of needs through the use of less expensive and more effective health care settings and treatments

Elucidating novel disease mechanisms in severe asthma

Corticosteroids are broadly active and potent anti-inflammatory agents that, despite the introduction of biologics, remain as the mainstay therapy for many chronic inflammatory diseases, including inflammatory bowel diseases, nephrotic syndrome, rheumatoid arthritis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma. Significantly, there are cohorts of these patients with poor sensitivity to steroid treatment even with high doses, which can lead to many iatrogenic side effects. The dose-limiting toxicity of corticosteroids, and the lack of effective therapeutic alternatives, leads to substantial excess morbidity and healthcare expenditure. We have developed novel murine models of respiratory infection-induced, severe, steroid-resistant asthma that recapitulate the hallmark features of the human disease. These models can be used to elucidate novel disease mechanisms and identify new therapeutic targets in severe asthma. Hypothesis-driven studies can elucidate the roles of specific factors and pathways. Alternatively, 'Omics approaches can be used to rapidly generate new targets. Similar approaches can be used in other diseases

Determination of an optimal response cut-off able to predict progression-free survival in patients with well-differentiated advanced pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours treated with sunitinib: an alternative to the current RECIST-defined response.

BACKGROUND: Sunitinib prolongs progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with advanced pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours (pNET). Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST)-defined partial responses (PR; classically defined as ⩾30% size decrease from baseline) are infrequent. METHODS: Individual data of pNET patients from the phase II [NCT00056693] and pivotal phase III [NCT00428597] trials of sunitinib were analysed in this investigator-initiated, post hoc study. The primary objective was to determine the optimal RECIST (v.1.0) response cut-off value to identify patients who were progression-free at 11 months (median PFS in phase III trial); and the most informative time-point (highest area under the curve (AUC) by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and logistic regression) for prediction of benefit (PFS) from sunitinib. RESULTS: Data for 237 patients (85 placebo; 152 sunitinib (n=66.50 mg \u274-weeks on/2-weeks off\u27 schedule; n=86 \u2737.5 mg continuous daily dosing (CDD)\u27)) and 788 scans were analysed. The median PFS for sunitinib and placebo were 9.3 months (95% CI 7.6-12.2) and 5.4 months (95% CI 3.5-6.01), respectively (hazard ratio (HR) 0.43 (95% CI 0.29-0.62); P CONCLUSIONS: A 10% reduction within marker lesions identifies pNET patients benefiting from sunitinib treatment with implications for maintenance of dose intensity and future trial design

Eliciting a predatory response in the eastern corn snake (Pantherophis guttatus) using live and inanimate sensory stimuli: implications for managing invasive populations

North America's Eastern corn snake (Pantherophis guttatus) has been introduced to several islands throughout the Caribbean and Australasia where it poses a significant threat to native wildlife. Invasive snake control programs often involve trapping with live bait, a practice that, as well as being costly and labour intensive, raises welfare and ethical concerns. This study assessed corn snake response to live and inanimate sensory stimuli in an attempt to inform possible future trapping of the species and the development of alternative trap lures. We exposed nine individuals to sensory cues in the form of odour, visual, vibration and combined stimuli and measured the response (rate of tongue-flick [RTF]). RTF was significantly higher in odour and combined cues treatments, and there was no significant difference in RTF between live and inanimate cues during odour treatments. Our findings suggest chemical cues are of primary importance in initiating predation and that an inanimate odour stimulus, absent of simultaneous visual and vibratory cues, is a potential low-cost alternative trap lure for the control of invasive corn snake populations

Coupling models of cattle and farms with models of badgers for predicting the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis (TB)

Bovine TB is a major problem for the agricultural industry in several countries. TB can be contracted and spread by species other than cattle and this can cause a problem for disease control. In the UK and Ireland, badgers are a recognised reservoir of infection and there has been substantial discussion about potential control strategies. We present a coupling of individual based models of bovine TB in badgers and cattle, which aims to capture the key details of the natural history of the disease and of both species at approximately county scale. The model is spatially explicit it follows a very large number of cattle and badgers on a different grid size for each species and includes also winter housing. We show that the model can replicate the reported dynamics of both cattle and badger populations as well as the increasing prevalence of the disease in cattle. Parameter space used as input in simulations was swept out using Latin hypercube sampling and sensitivity analysis to model outputs was conducted using mixed effect models. By exploring a large and computationally intensive parameter space we show that of the available control strategies it is the frequency of TB testing and whether or not winter housing is practised that have the most significant effects on the number of infected cattle, with the effect of winter housing becoming stronger as farm size increases. Whether badgers were culled or not explained about 5%, while the accuracy of the test employed to detect infected cattle explained less than 3% of the variance in the number of infected cattle

Suitability of PSA-detected localised prostate cancers for focal therapy: Experience from the ProtecT study

This article is available through a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-Share Alike 3.0 Unported License. Copyright @ 2011 Cancer Research UK.Background: Contemporary screening for prostate cancer frequently identifies small volume, low-grade lesions. Some clinicians have advocated focal prostatic ablation as an alternative to more aggressive interventions to manage these lesions. To identify which patients might benefit from focal ablative techniques, we analysed the surgical specimens of a large sample of population-detected men undergoing radical prostatectomy as part of a randomised clinical trial. Methods: Surgical specimens from 525 men who underwent prostatectomy within the ProtecT study were analysed to determine tumour volume, location and grade. These findings were compared with information available in the biopsy specimen to examine whether focal therapy could be provided appropriately. Results: Solitary cancers were found in prostatectomy specimens from 19% (100 out of 525) of men. In addition, 73 out of 425 (17%) men had multiple cancers with a solitary significant tumour focus. Thus, 173 out of 525 (33%) men had tumours potentially suitable for focal therapy. The majority of these were small, well-differentiated lesions that appeared to be pathologically insignificant (38–66%). Criteria used to select patients for focal prostatic ablation underestimated the cancer's significance in 26% (34 out of 130) of men and resulted in overtreatment in more than half. Only 18% (24 out of 130) of men presumed eligible for focal therapy, actually had significant solitary lesions. Conclusion: Focal therapy appears inappropriate for the majority of men presenting with prostate-specific antigen-detected localised prostate cancer. Unifocal prostate cancers suitable for focal ablation are difficult to identify pre-operatively using biopsy alone. Most lesions meeting criteria for focal ablation were either more aggressive than expected or posed little threat of progression.National Institute for Health Researc

Examining the “Urban Advantage” in Maternal Health Care in Developing Countries

Andrew Channon and colleagues outline the complexities of urban advantage in maternal health where the urban poor often have worse access to health care than women in rural areas

Genome-wide examination of the transcriptional response to ecdysteroids 20-hydroxyecdysone and ponasterone A in Drosophila melanogaster

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The 20-hydroxyecdysone (20E) hierarchy of gene activation serves as an attractive model system for studying the mode of steroid hormone regulated gene expression and development. Many structural analogs of 20E exist in nature and among them the plant-derived ponasterone A (PoA) is the most potent. PoA has a higher affinity for the 20E nuclear receptor, composed of the ecysone receptor (EcR) and Ultraspiracle proteins, than 20E and a comparison of the genes regulated by these hormones has not been performed. Furthermore, in <it>Drosophila </it>different cell types elicit different morphological responses to 20E yet the cell type specificity of the 20E transcriptional response has not been examined on a genome-wide scale. We aim to characterize the transcriptional response to 20E and PoA in <it>Drosophila </it>Kc cells and to 20E in salivary glands and provide a robust comparison of genes involved in each response.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Our genome-wide microarray analysis of Kc167 cells treated with 20E or PoA revealed that far more genes are regulated by PoA than by 20E (256 vs 148 respectively) and that there is very little overlap between the transcriptional responses to each hormone. Interestingly, genes induced by 20E relative to PoA are enriched in functions related to development. We also find that many genes regulated by 20E in Kc167 cells are not regulated by 20E in salivary glands of wandering 3^rdinstar larvae and we show that 20E-induced levels of <it>EcR </it>isoforms <it>EcR-RA, ER-RC</it>, and <it>EcR-RD/E </it>differ between Kc cells and salivary glands suggesting a possible cause for the observed differences in 20E-regulated gene transcription between the two cell types.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We report significant differences in the transcriptional responses of 20E and PoA, two steroid hormones that differ by only a single hydroxyl group. We also provide evidence that suggests that PoA induced death of non-adapted insects may be related to PoA regulating different set of genes when compared to 20E. In addition, we reveal large differences between Kc cells and salivary glands with regard to their genome-wide transcriptional response to 20E and show that the level of induction of certain EcR isoforms differ between Kc cells and salivary glands. We hypothesize that the differences in the transcriptional response may in part be due to differences in the EcR isoforms present in different cell types.</p

Calibrative approaches to protein solubility modeling of a mutant series using physicochemical descriptors

A set of physicochemical properties describing a protein of known structure is employed for a calibrative approach to protein solubility. Common hydrodynamic and electrophoretic properties routinely measured in the bio-analytical laboratory such as zeta potential, dipole moment, the second osmotic virial coefficient are first estimated in silico as a function a pH and solution ionic strength starting with the protein crystal structure. The utility of these descriptors in understanding the solubility of a series of ribonuclease Sa mutants is investigated. A simple two parameter model was trained using solubility data of the wild type protein measured at a restricted number of solution pHs. Solubility estimates of the mutants demonstrate that zeta potential and dipole moment may be used to rationalize solubility trends over a wide pH range. Additionally a calibrative model based on the protein’s second osmotic virial coefficient, B22 was developed. A modified DVLO type potential along with a simplified representation of the protein allowed for efficient computation of the second viral coefficient. The standard error of prediction for both models was on the order of 0.3 log S units. These results are very encouraging and demonstrate that these models may be trained with a small number of samples and employed extrapolatively for estimating mutant solubilities