Economic evaluations of HBV testing and treatment strategies and applicability to low and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND: Many people living with chronic HBV infection remain undiagnosed until later stages of disease. Increasing testing and treatment rates form part of the strategy to respond to the WHO goal of eliminating viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030. However, achieving these ambitious targets is dependent on finding effective and cost-effective methods of scale up strategies. The aim of this study was to undertake a narrative review of the literature on economic evaluations of testing and treatment for HBV infection, to help inform the development of the 2017 WHO Hepatitis Testing Guidelines. METHODS: We undertook a focussed literature review for economic evaluations on testing for HBV accompanied by antiviral treatment. The search was carried out in Pubmed and included only articles published after 2000 and written in English. We narratively synthesise the results and discuss the key drivers of cost-effectiveness and their applicability to low and middle-income countries (LMICs). RESULTS: Nine published studies were included in this review, only one of which was performed in a low or middle-income setting in West Africa. Eight studies were performed in high-income settings, seven among high risk groups and one among the general population. The studies were heterogeneous in many respects including the population and testing strategy under consideration, model structure and baselines parameters, willingness to pay thresholds and outcome measures used. However, most studies found HBV testing and treatment to be cost-effective, even at low HBsAg prevalence levels. CONCLUSIONS: Currently economic evaluations of HBV testing and treatment strategies in LMICs is lacking, therefore limiting the ability to provide formal recommendations on the basis of cost-effectiveness alone. Further implementation research is needed in order to help guide national policy planning

Letter: liver disease and COVID-19 - not the perfect storm

This article is linked to Garrido et al papers. To view these articles, visit https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.15813 and https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.15886

Cost-effectiveness of different monitoring strategies in a screening and treatment programme for hepatitis B in The Gambia

BACKGROUND: Clinical management of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is complex and access to antiviral treatment remains limited in sub-Saharan Africa. International guidelines recommend monitoring at least annually for disease progression among HBV-infected people not meeting treatment criteria at initial diagnosis. This study aimed to assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for monitoring. METHODS: We used a mathematical model of HBV transmission and natural history, calibrated to all available West African data, to project the population-level health impact, costs and cost-effectiveness of different monitoring strategies for HBV-infected individuals not initially eligible for antiviral treatment. We assumed that these patients were found in the year 2020 in a hypothetical community-based screening programme in The Gambia. Monitoring frequencies were varied between every 5 and every 1 year and targeted different age groups. RESULTS: The currently recommended annual monitoring frequency was likely to be not cost-effective in comparison with other strategies in this setting. 5-yearly monitoring in 15-45-year olds, at US$338 per disability-adjusted life year averted, had the highest probability of being the most effective cost-effective monitoring strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Monitoring less frequently than once a year is a cost-effective strategy in a community-based HBV screening and treatment programme in The Gambia, with the optimal strategy depending on the cost-effectiveness threshold. Efficiencies may be gained by prioritising the 15-45-year age group for more intensive monitoring

Cost-eff ectiveness of community-based screening and treatment for chronic hepatitis B in The Gambia: an economic modelling analysis

Background Despite the high burden of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection in sub-Saharan Africa, absence of widespread screening and poor access to treatment leads to most people remaining undiagnosed until later stages of disease when prognosis is poor and treatment options are limited. We examined the cost-eff ectiveness of community-based screening and early treatment with antiviral therapy for HBV in The Gambia. Methods In this economic evaluation, we combined a decision tree with a Markov state transition model to compare a screen and treat intervention consisting of adult community-based screening using a hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) rapid test and subsequent HBV antiviral therapy versus current practice, in which there is an absence of publicly provided screening or treatment for HBV. We used data from the PROLIFICA study to parameterise epidemiological, primary screening, and cost information, and other model parameter inputs were obtained from a literature search. Outcome measures were cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted; cost per life-year saved; and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. We calculated the incremental cost-eff ectiveness ratios (ICERs) between current practice and the screen and treat intervention. Costs were assessed from a health provider perspective. Costs (expressed in 2013 US$) and health outcomes were discounted at 3 Findings In The Gambia, where the prevalence of HBsAg is 8·8 treatment for HBV has an incremental cost-eff ectiveness ratio (ICER) of$540 per DALY averted, $645 per life-year saved, and$511 per QALY gained, compared with current practice. These ICERs are in line with willingness-to-pay levels of one times the country’s gross domestic product per capita ($487) per DALY averted, and remain robust over a wide range of epidemiological and cost parameter inputs. Interpretation Adult community-based screening and treatment for HBV in The Gambia is likely to be a cost-eff ective intervention. Higher cost-eff ectiveness might be achievable with targeted facility-based screening, price reductions of drugs and diagnostics, and integration of HBV screening with other public health interventions

Prevention of Liver Fibrosis and Cancer in Africa: The PROLIFICA project – a collaborative study of hepatitis B-related liver disease in West Africa

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection causes a spectrum of acute and chronic liver disease ranging from inactive chronic carrier status to progressive chronic hepatitis, culminating in end-stage cirrhosis and liver cancer. In sub-Saharan Africa, HBV infection is endemic and the HBV-related disease burden is high, making HBV a signficant threat to health in the African continent. The European Union-funded Prevention of Liver Fibrosis and Cancer in Africa (PROLIFICA) project was established in 2011, with the central directive to reduce the incidence of HBV-related liver cancer in West Africa. In this editorial, we outline some of the achievements and challenges of the PROLIFICA platform in West Africa, highlighting the the importance of collaborative studies in Africa

Development of a simple score based on HBeAg and ALT for selecting patients for HBV treatment in Africa.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: To eliminate hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, it is essential to scale up antiviral treatment through decentralized services. However, access to the conventional tools to assess treatment eligibility (liver biopsy/Fibroscan®/HBV DNA) is limited and not affordable in resource-limited countries. We developed and validated a simple score to easily identify patients in need of HBV treatment in Africa. METHODS: As a reference, we used treatment eligibility determined by the European Association for the Study of the Liver based on alanine aminotransferase (ALT), liver histology and/or Fibroscan and HBV DNA. We derived a score indicating treatment eligibility by a stepwise logistic regression using a cohort of chronic HBV infection in The Gambia (n = 804). We subsequently validated the score in an external cohort of HBV-infected Africans from Senegal, Burkina Faso, and Europe (n = 327). RESULTS: Out of several parameters, two remained in the final model, namely HBV e antigen (HBeAg) and ALT level, constituting a simple score (treatment eligibility in Africa for the hepatitis B virus: TREAT-B). The score demonstrated a high area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.85, 95% CI 0.79-0.91) in the validation set. The score of 2 and above (HBeAg-positive and ALT ≥20 U/L or HBeAg-negative and ALT ≥40 U/L) had a sensitivity and specificity for treatment eligibility of 85% and 77%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of the World Health Organization criteria based on the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) and ALT were 90% and 40%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A simple score based on HBeAg and ALT had a high diagnostic accuracy for the selection of patients for HBV treatment. This score could be useful in African settings. LAY SUMMARY: Limited access to the diagnostic tools used to assess treatment eligibility (liver biopsy/Fibroscan/hepatitis B virus DNA) has been an obstacle to the scale up of hepatitis B treatment programs in low- and middle-income countries. Using the data from African patients with chronic HBV infection, we developed and validated a new simple diagnostic score for treatment eligibility, which only consists of hepatitis B virus e antigen and alanine aminotransferase level. The diagnostic accuracy of the score for selecting patients for HBV treatment was high and could be useful in African settings

How can the public health impact of vaccination be estimated?

BACKGROUND: Deaths due to vaccine preventable diseases cause a notable proportion of mortality worldwide. To quantify the importance of vaccination, it is necessary to estimate the burden averted through vaccination. The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium (VIMC) was established to estimate the health impact of vaccination. METHODS: We describe the methods implemented by the VIMC to estimate impact by calendar year, birth year and year of vaccination (YoV). The calendar and birth year methods estimate impact in a particular year and over the lifetime of a particular birth cohort, respectively. The YoV method estimates the impact of a particular year's vaccination activities through the use of impact ratios which have no stratification and stratification by activity type and/or birth cohort. Furthermore, we detail an impact extrapolation (IE) method for use between coverage scenarios. We compare the methods, focusing on YoV for hepatitis B, measles and yellow fever. RESULTS: We find that the YoV methods estimate similar impact with routine vaccinations but have greater yearly variation when campaigns occur with the birth cohort stratification. The IE performs well for the YoV methods, providing a time-efficient mechanism for updates to impact estimates. CONCLUSIONS: These methods provide a robust set of approaches to quantify vaccination impact; however it is vital that the area of impact estimation continues to develop in order to capture the full effect of immunisation

Investment Case for a Comprehensive Package of Interventions Against Hepatitis B in China: Applied Modeling to Help National Strategy Planning.

BACKGROUND content: In 2016, the first global viral hepatitis elimination targets were endorsed. An estimated one-third of the world's population of individuals with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection live in China and liver cancer is the sixth leading cause of mortality, but coverage of first-line antiviral treatment was low. In 2015, China was one of the first countries to initiate a consultative process for a renewed approach to viral hepatitis. We present the investment case for the scale-up of a comprehensive package of HBV interventions. METHODS content: A dynamic simulation model of HBV was developed and used to simulate the Chinese HBV epidemic. We evaluated the impact, costs, and return on investment of a comprehensive package of prevention and treatment interventions from a societal perspective, incorporating costs of management of end-stage liver disease and lost productivity costs. RESULTS content: Despite the successes of historical vaccination scale-up since 1992, there will be a projected 60 million people still living with HBV in 2030 and 10 million HBV-related deaths, including 5.7 million HBV-related cancer deaths between 2015 and 2030. This could be reduced by 2.1 million by highly active case-finding and optimal antiviral treatment regimens. The package of interventions is likely to have a positive return on investment to society of US$1.57 per US dollar invested. CONCLUSIONS content: Increases in HBV-related deaths for the next few decades pose a major public health threat in China. Active case-finding and access to optimal antiviral treatment are required to mitigate this risk. This investment case approach provides a real-world example of how applied modeling can support national dialog and inform policy planning

The gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase to platelet ratio (GPR) predicts significant liver fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic HBV infection in West Africa.

BACKGROUND: Simple and inexpensive non-invasive fibrosis tests are highly needed but have been poorly studied in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: Using liver histology as a gold standard, we developed a novel index using routine laboratory tests to predict significant fibrosis in patients with chronic HBV infection in The Gambia, West Africa. We prospectively assessed the diagnostic accuracy of the novel index, Fibroscan, aspartate transaminase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and Fib-4 in Gambian patients with CHB (training set) and also in French and Senegalese CHB cohorts (validation sets). RESULTS: Of 135 consecutive treatment-naïve patients with CHB who had liver biopsy, 39% had significant fibrosis (Metavir fibrosis stage ≥F2) and 15% had cirrhosis (F4). In multivariable analysis, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) and platelet count were independent predictors of significant fibrosis. Consequently, GGT-to-platelet ratio (GPR) was developed. In The Gambia, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the GPR was significantly higher than that of APRI and Fib-4 to predict ≥F2, ≥F3 and F4. In Senegal, the AUROC of GPR was significantly better than Fib-4 and APRI for ≥F2 (0.73, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.86) and better than Fib-4 and Fibroscan for ≥F3 (0.93, 0.87 to 0.99). In France, the AUROC of GPR to diagnose ≥F2 (0.72, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.85) and F4 (0.87, 0.76 to 0.98) was equivalent to that of APRI and Fib-4. CONCLUSIONS: The GPR is a more accurate routine laboratory marker than APRI and Fib-4 to stage liver fibrosis in patients with CHB in West Africa. The GPR represents a simple and inexpensive alternative to liver biopsy and Fibroscan in sub-Saharan Africa

Acceptability and feasibility of a screen-and-treat programme for hepatitis B virus infection in The Gambia: the Prevention of Liver Fibrosis and Cancer in Africa (PROLIFICA) study.

BACKGROUND: Despite the introduction of immunisation for hepatitis B virus (HBV) in the 1990s, HBV-related morbidity and mortality remain high in sub-Saharan Africa. Identification and treatment of asymptomatic people with chronic HBV infection should reduce the disease burden. We therefore assessed the feasibility of a screen-and-treat programme for HBV infection in The Gambia, west Africa, and estimated the proportion of HBV-infected people who had significant liver disease in need of treatment. METHODS: Between Dec 7, 2011, and Jan 24, 2014, individuals living in randomly selected communities in western Gambia were offered hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) screening via a point-of-care test. The test was also offered to potential blood donors attending the central hospital in the capital, Banjul. HBsAg-positive individuals were invited for a comprehensive liver assessment and were offered treatment according to international guidelines. We defined linkage to care as visiting the liver clinic at least once. Eligibility for treatment was judged in accordance with the 2012 European Association for the Study of the Liver guidelines. FINDINGS: HBsAg screening was accepted by 5980 (weighted estimate 68·9%, 95% CI 65·0-72·4) of 8170 adults from 27 rural and 27 urban communities and 5559 (81·4%, 80·4-82·3) of 6832 blood donors. HBsAg was detected in 495 (8·8%, 7·9-9·7) individuals in communities and 721 (13·0%, 12·1-13·9) blood donors. Prevalence was higher in men (239 [10·5%, 8·9-12·1] of 2328 men vs 256 [7·6%, 6·5-8·7] of 3652 women; p=0·004) and middle-aged participants. Linkage to care was high in the communities, with 402 (81·3%) of 495 HBsAg-positive individuals attending the clinic. However, only 300 (41·6%) of 721 HBsAg-positive people screened at the blood bank linked into care. Of those who attended the clinic, 18 (4·4%, 2·5-7·7) patients from the communities and 29 (9·7%, 6·8-13·6) from the blood bank were eligible for treatment. Male sex was strongly associated with treatment eligibility (odds ratio 4·35, 1·50-12·58; p=0·007). INTERPRETATION: HBV infection remains highly prevalent in The Gambia. The high coverage of community-based screening, good linkage into care, and the small proportion of HBsAg carriers who need treatment suggest that large-scale screening and treatment programmes are feasible in sub-Saharan Africa. FUNDING: European Commission (FP7)