Breeding implications of drought stress under future climate for upland rice in Brazil

Rice is the most important food crop in the developing world. For rice production systems to address the challenges of increasing demand and climate change, potential and on‐farm yield increases must be increased. Breeding is one of the main strategies toward such aim. Here, we hypothesize that climatic and atmospheric changes for the upland rice growing period in central Brazil are likely to alter environment groupings and drought stress patterns by 2050, leading to changing breeding targets during the 21st century. As a result of changes in drought stress frequency and intensity, we found reductions in productivity in the range of 200–600 kg/ha (up to 20%) and reductions in yield stability throughout virtually the entire upland rice growing area (except for the southeast). In the face of these changes, our crop simulation analysis suggests that the current strategy of the breeding program, which aims at achieving wide adaptation, should be adjusted. Based on the results for current and future climates, a weighted selection strategy for the three environmental groups that characterize the region is suggested. For the highly favorable environment (HFE, 36%–41% growing area, depending on RCP), selection should be done under both stress‐free and terminal stress conditions; for the favorable environment (FE, 27%–40%), selection should aim at testing under reproductive and terminal stress, and for the least favorable environment (LFE, 23%–27%), selection should be conducted for response to reproductive stress only and for the joint occurrence of reproductive and terminal stress. Even though there are differences in timing, it is noteworthy that stress levels are similar across environments, with 40%–60% of crop water demand unsatisfied. Efficient crop improvement targeted toward adaptive traits for drought tolerance will enhance upland rice crop system resilience under climate change

CGIAR modeling approaches for resource-constrained scenarios: I. Accelerating crop breeding for a changing climate.

Crop improvement efforts aiming at increasing crop production (quantity, quality) and adapting to climate change have been subject of active research over the past years. But, the question remains 'to what extent can breeding gains be achieved under a changing climate, at a pace sufficient to usefully contribute to climate adaptation, mitigation and food security?'. Here, we address this question by critically reviewing how model-based approaches can be used to assist breeding activities, with particular focus on all CGIAR (formerly the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research but now known simply as CGIAR) breeding programs. Crop modeling can underpin breeding efforts in many different ways, including assessing genotypic adaptability and stability, characterizing and identifying target breeding environments, identifying tradeoffs among traits for such environments, and making predictions of the likely breeding value of the genotypes. Crop modeling science within the CGIAR has contributed to all of these. However, much progress remains to be done if modeling is to effectively contribute to more targeted and impactful breeding programs under changing climates. In a period in which CGIAR breeding programs are undergoing a major modernization process, crop modelers will need to be part of crop improvement teams, with a common understanding of breeding pipelines and model capabilities and limitations, and common data standards and protocols, to ensure they follow and deliver according to clearly defined breeding products. This will, in turn, enable more rapid and better-targeted crop modeling activities, thus directly contributing to accelerated and more impactful breeding efforts.Online Version of Record before inclusion in an issue

Data from: Origins of food crops connect countries worldwide

Research into the origins of food plants has led to the recognition that specific geographical regions around the world have been of particular importance to the development of agricultural crops. Yet the relative contributions of these different regions in the context of current food systems have not been quantified. Here we determine the origins (‘primary regions of diversity’) of the crops comprising the food supplies and agricultural production of countries worldwide. We estimate the degree to which countries use crops from regions of diversity other than their own (‘foreign crops’), and quantify changes in this usage over the past 50 years. Countries are highly interconnected with regard to primary regions of diversity of the crops they cultivate and/or consume. Foreign crops are extensively used in food supplies (68.7% of national food supplies as a global mean are derived from foreign crops) and production systems (69.3% of crops grown are foreign). Foreign crop usage has increased significantly over the past 50 years, including in countries with high indigenous crop diversity. The results provide a novel perspective on the ongoing globalization of food systems worldwide, and bolster evidence for the importance of international collaboration on genetic resource conservation and exchange